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I don't want to get too deep into discussing next weekend before this one really even begins, but next weekend is going to be interesting. Remember when I said last weekend that Demon Slayer will probably be on a see-saw of sorts over the weekends now due to the giveaway events every other week?

Next weekend is the second round of the giveaway event, in addition to one of the birthday (11/29) of one of the characters. Clearly the giveaway will provide a boost, and while it might sound strange to consider a birthday of a fictional character as a benefit, we saw with this past Thursday that such events might actually have a positive impact with this film given how enormously popular it is. And with Doraemon's likely under-performance this weekend, Demon Slayer is almost assured to get the majority of the IMAX showings back in addition to the biggest screen at each location again.

But this is a week off. And a week off right now is a LONG time and a lot can change in that time in 2020, so let's not speculate *too* much and get too detailed. But next weekend, for the time being, is looking interesting.

DS is so very close to the biggest sixth weekend. It needs to see some flat weekend soon to keep the momentum.

Just when I mentioned in my post that it needs to see a flat weekend

Only $3M- $4M Monday ? I was expecting something around $5M and doubling last Monday

I'm guessing Corpse is being conservative with his projections due to loss of screens and IMAX showtimes.

Yes ofc and it's normal, me I'm just hoping a $10M weekend (¥1 billion), and a $4,5M-$5M Monday but if it's less than that it's normal and I will totally understand.

Now it's not sure that DS will have the 7th best weekend ever, he really needs a very small drop next week for that, I hope so and we'll see that when the time comes

I am being on the conservative side since this weekend is hard to read. Saturday is going to be misleading since last Saturday was very inflated. Sunday is likely to have a great hold since it's before a holiday, and last Sunday was slightly deflated. I'm guessing Monday will be somewhere between them, but went low to avoid over-estimating (hate that).

And who knows, Monday will only be its second holiday since opening, so it could be even larger than the highest expectations. Wouldn't be shocked if Monday would come in at $5/6 million, but I'm just being conservative just in case given the uncertainty right now.

And definitely don't be worried about next weekend. As long as things don't worsen in regard to COVID, possibly causing the theaters to go back to 50% capacity, next weekend is likely to be flat, and I wouldn't be surprised by an increase under normal circumstances. It's the second giveaway weekend, and theaters are very likely to give it back the bulk of the IMAX screens and largest screen (mistake, while understandable, to give them to Doraemon) to take advantage of it.

If it stays flat next weekend, then I imagine Weekend 8 would likely be the first time it falls below the record-holder (Frozen's Golden Week)? Will be interesting to see how close it gets, though.

Yeah, that Frozen's eighth weekend record might be one of the few records it doesn't take. It'll likely take the Biggest Sixth Weekend record, but it might be somewhat close (HP1's sixth weekend record above was over New Year). And Biggest Seventh Weekend, I imagine, is almost guaranteed. It doesn't need to stay flat or anything either; it "just" needs to avoid a 25/30% drop if it comes around my estimate this weekend, and that's practically guaranteed.

But back to the eighth weekend. The final manga volume release, and the rebroadcast special of the Natagumo Mountain Arc (episodes 15-21), both happen over its eighth weekend. These are probably going to benefit it some. Not as much as a giveaway, I don't think, but possibly enough to keep the Biggest Eighth Weekend Record a possibility.

@Corpse, do you think that Demon Slayer manages to keep small drops (around 20% or a little less) on his next weekdays or conversely do you think that at some point Demon Slayer will suffer a more important drop ( 40% / 50%) ?

On a normal weekday to normal weekday comparison, I don't think it'll stay much from the drops it's seen recently (~20% or so). But there will of course be days, such as NEXT Monday (11/30) that will probably drop 70% or something because this Monday (11/23) is a holiday and will be way up. 12/01 (Tuesday) is a national discount day, so that next Tuesday (12/08) will drop pretty high (probably over 50%).

This is all, of course, assuming that COVID's influence remains relatively low. And because of this, taking the predictions on a day-by-day basis is the best way to go right now.

when will its weekend enter to the phase of around 10% or less than 10% in drop? when the total gross is small enough (around $7-8M/weekend)?

I don't think such drops should really be expected over the weekends unless there's something providing a boost, similar to how it only managed to drop 14% last weekend due to the giveaway and Toho Cinema Day. Next weekend, for example, will *probably* (assuming nothing changes the state of the box office by then) enjoy a very small drop/possible bump due to the second round of giveaways. But the following weekend will probably drop more than normal because it was boosted that prior weekend (like this weekend versus the boosted weekend last week). Its weekends are on a see-saw because of the giveaways.

Consistent drops in the teens or single digits pretty much only happen with the leggiest of the leggiest films (Frozen, Your Name, Bohemian Rhapsody, Spirited Away, etc.).

And again, COVID's potential influence is going to be an unknown issue for quite awhile making any long-term predictions unreliable. It's had little/no impact on Demon Slayer so far, but who knows about the future. Day-by-day basis phase here.

I strongly hope that Demon Slayer takes advantage of the 18 days of vacation in Japan between end of december to beginning of january without problem because of the covid, because this period will register big numbers for Demon Slayer if all goes well

i mean this, can we expect DS will act like this when its daily gross and weekend gross are small enough? i know DS and these films are two different types of run but they are both considered as phenonmenal status....

In morning looking at 450mn, looks like a big drop today. and no, not just because of last Saturday being Toho day, because that would have benefited the gross by 100mn perhaps. Even adjusting for that, its 35% drop. If that proved to be true, perhaps 950mn weekend.

Demon Slayer, honestly, deserves its own classification. It's the biggest property the country has ever really seen, and not just at the box office. It has captured an entire country, essentially, breaking sales records (by truly unfathomable margins) on everything it touches. It has boosted the world's third largest economy, adding approx. ¥500 billion (~$5 billion) to it this past year.

I've mentioned it a few times, but it's like taking a film from large market and dropping it into a smaller market without adjusting to that small market. After this Sunday, it'll have grossed as much as Spirited Away and Frozen combined after their sixth weeks. And without any sort of holiday boost that they had (Summer Vacation/Obon Festival, and Spring Break, respectively) besides ONE single holiday (Nov. 3rd). That's absurdity.

At some point it could begin to have small drops like that, but I wouldn't expect them anytime soon.

You forgot last weekend was the limited giveaway event that resulted in last Saturday INCREASING over the previous Saturday. Last Saturday would have seen a decline otherwise. Just wait for the day to play out, it'll improve. And Sunday will see a significant increase over Saturday this weekend.

Toho day had practically no bonus on box office, giveaway had like ￥100m's effect.
I also think it's going to have a 450m today for a 35% drop if excluding giveaway effect, totally fine given COVID situation imo

I am looking at revenue. Last Saturday dropped 8% approx. Say last Saturday had 20% drop, that would be around 690mn, a 450mn this Saturday would be still 35% drop.

I think the drop is thanks to loss of screen, which is not something to really worry about.

Anyhow, with 950mn weekend and 1350mn range 3 days, week shall reach 2100mn. That will about 82% equivalent of Frozen II. Adjusting for holiday impact perhaps 75%. If it go on to do 75% of Frozen 2 from here, that will be 34.75mn adjusting for Frozen II run cut by Covid.

Yeah that would have been a factor, but ATP dropped to around 1300 as compared to 1370 it would have normally, that's some affect IMO.

I think we just have to let the day go by and the weekend go by we'll see if the numbers are those expected or if they are lower, even if they are lower, it does not matter it also happens to films phenomena of experiencing larger drops from time to time

I get what you guys are saying, and you're not necessarily wrong (especially if this was a normal Saturday to Saturday comparison). However, last Saturday was, as we know, quite inflated, but especially so during the first half of the day. Last Saturday was up +30/40% until around noon, then fell to around +20% in the afternoon, then around +10% or so in the evening before finally ending the day a couple percentage points up versus that prior Saturday (in admissions at the usual locations), and with a higher share at the usual locations than normal since it was a Toho Cinema Day which skewed the business in favor of the usual locations.

The giveaway resulted in last Saturday having a tremendous start due to the strong reservations to guarantee getting a copy, but it slowed down as the day progressed.

This Saturday is the total opposite. It began much slow in comparison due to the earlier rush factor last Saturday, but it has gradually improved from opening the day down 66% to now being down 55% just after 2pm. It should continue to improve on this number throughout the day little by little, even if it's just ~1% every hour. I'm guessing it'll end today down about 45% in admissions, maybe slightly better, which would be closer to 40% in revenue since today's average ticket price will be a bit higher than last Saturday (due to Toho Cinema Day last Sat.).

I'm going to predict between ¥475-500 mullion ($4.6-4.8 million) on 350,000-375,000 admissions for today. And unlike last Sunday, and any of its previous Sundays, tomorrow's Sunday is going to see a decent bump since it's before a holiday Monday. A 10-20% increase over today should be pretty reasonable.