Box office theory is broken ?

They can finish the entire series in anime or animated film form from the profits Mugen Train is raking in versus the cost of adapting just one live-action film.

Season One only cost ¥500 million. And this movie also cost ¥500 million.

I don't remember the exact figures, but the Attack on Titan films (just 2) cost around ¥3 billion, I believe, and both lost money. And the majorty of the films listed were bombs or disappointments, also losing money in theaters. The Rurouni Kenshin films and the Kingdom films performed well, but neither really required a lot of special effects and managed to be solid adaptations. And back in the day, the Death Note films did well, but again, little/no special effects required.

They could go the live-action route, but it'd be unnecessarily costly and risky for no reason.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000 *est.*
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000 *est.*
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000 *est.*

34-Day Cumulative Total: ¥24,019,291,050 ($228.8 million) / 18,005,285 *est.*

Note: Mon.-Fri. are estimates, therefore adding up each day won't equal the actual total.

¥24 billion and 18 millions admissions reached, amazing, I really hope there will be no problem with the covid now

You mean this problem?

Yes, it's the same level that was put in place back in July when wave 2 began. Movie theaters remained open, even expanding their capacity at the time, and movies then performed well outside of the more family/children-driven releases. Restaurants, nightclubs, and bars and such will likely be asked to close earlier again (10pm versus midnight or later).

If anything, if things would worsen, theaters will go back to 50% capacity on the weekends again.

Theaters are one of the least likely to be impacted by this, as last July and August showed, since they're much safer than restaurants and clubs since food isn't being sold and stricter guidelines are followed.

Now I am scared I don't know what is gonna happen about covid

Hope it still beat spirited away

.......Again, I've provided evidence of this same alert being issued back in July. Theaters remained opened, expanded their capacity, and movies performed great, including a blockbuster (From Today, It's My Turn!) and sequels outgrossing their predecessors. Only the family films have disappointed a bit.

I made a full detailed post about this yesterday to avoid the freakout and uncertainty. Don't worry until there's actual measures taken on theaters or if there's a noticeable impact on attendance.

@Corpse, I don't stress but imagine the worst, imagine the theaters close, when the theaters reopen, Demon Slayer would be screened in theaters again after the closure is lifted ?

Yes. All the films that were in release back before theaters closed in April were playing again when they opened back up in May/June.

But don't be concerned with this until there's an actual announcement. They'd go back to 50% capacity before closing, and it's a real last resort for the government right now.

Demon Slayer will still be safe as long as it only has a problem with short of supply, not demand.
But I see that Demon Slayer is being call-outed as a part of spreading infection in SNS. My bet is still in race, though the chance of me winning is as much as Trump.

Well, we just have to remain calm and optimistic.
If thet didn't close everything after the peak in July/august, why would they now?

Or perhaps the government starts with measures now, in order to have it back under control by christmas/new year.
It's too early to tell.

Yes I also think that there is nothing to worry about as @Corpse said, anyway there are 3 scenarios :

1. The situation remains the same and Demon Slayer will surpass Spirited Away at the end of December

2. The cinemas are going back to 50% of their capacity (which is likely to happen if the cases do not drop) and Demon Slayer will take a little longer to pass number 1 (Maybe at the beginning of January)

3. The worst-case scenario is that the theaters close but even if they do close, Demon Slayer will be playing again once it reopens and still have the potential to outperform Spirited Away and go No.1 at the Japanese box office.

I just checked the timeline of covid in Japan, and WOW,
the secod wave in july/august was bigger than I thought,
and yet the box office didn't stop.

A quick list of major events and releases and the number of cases up to date:

*Apr/16 8,500 - State of Emergency declared

*May/16 16,000 (+88% cases from Apr/16)- reopening in 39/47 prefectures

*Jun/20 17,800 (+11%)- reopening in all prefectures

*Jul/17 23,400 (+32%)- From Today, It's My Turn! released

*Ago/07 43,800 (+87%)- Doraemon (family film) released

*Sep/18 77,500 (+77%)- TENET released

*Oct/16 91,400 (+18%) - Demon Slayer released

*Nov/18 120,800 (+32%) - Today

So interestingly this article was trending yesterday on japanese twitter:
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/moritam ... -00208206/

It is written by a Japanese weather forecaster and it speculates using moon phases that the movie could take place on November 19, 1918 which would make tomorrow an "anniversary" of sorts. Probably not going to affect anything, but a fun fact.

That must be what the "anniversary" people we're talking about is. It could actually provide a very unusual "boost", because Thursday sales (weakest day of the week) look pretty decent looking at somd random locations. Small sample I checked, but I'd say today is looking better than Tuesday.

Wait, so the movie could actually take place after the end of WWI?

That's heavy.

Corpse why the seatings are looking so low for demon slayer and doraemon despite showings above 3000 on friday?

Something wrong with the program. See the average auditorium size (145 and 111)? Those numbers will at least near or over 200 each. That's way too low, and the other films have average auditorium sizes of like 60 (these should be closer to 100).

Edit that: That's actually somewhat normal for a weekday (Friday is still a weekday, remember). The numbers I posted are what Saturday and Sunday typically average. Doraemon will probably be around 200 (maybe a little higher) and Demon Slayer around 150 or a little higher.

Sorry to keep making posts, but also keep in mind that not all theaters are at 100% on Fridays. More have moved back to 100% on Fridays, but enough continue to operate at 50% capacity that Friday seating and average auditorium size as a result are lower than Saturday or Sunday. It's also very possible that the system is still programmed to have those that were 50% last Friday but went to 100% this Friday still at 50%. If the Friday updates are unusual, then that'd likely be a big reason.

They'll both probably pick up 100,000-200,000 on Saturday and Sunday. Not sure about Monday (holiday) yet. I'm going to assume it'll be like Saturday and Sunday, but it might go back to weekday numbers again as some chains could switch back.

I want to reply early but I always forget to mentions things.

Thursday looks strong, @Corpse do you still estimate a $11,5M weekend ?

Thursday is looking strong, very strong.

And I don't think we'll be able to really project or make accurate predictions here soon (even for this weekend), so I'm not sure on the weekend. There hasn't been any negative impact on the box office yet, at least in regard to Demon Slayer, but cases are continuing to climb. They've now gone beyond the peaks of late-July/early-August, so the 50% capacity restriction is likely to be put in place again. I don't believe it can be done over this weekend, unless they refund everyone who has reserved tickets already (and I don't think that's a thing), but it could go into effect beginning Monday, or Tuesday.

We'll have to take it on a day-by-day basis now. There's just too much uncertainly to make any reliable predictions. What measures will the government put in place (this should be known later today or tomorrow at least)? How many people may refrain from going out to the movies (this will be known when/if there's an impact on attendance, but who knows when/if)? How will the theaters handle it? Too many unknowns.

If things get worse, could some of the upcoming films delay their release?