Same, 900-925,000. But I'm hoping it reaches 1 million at just the usual locations!

If we use 925,000 at the usual locations, that'd likely mean around 1.3 million admissions for the day. And 1.3 million admissions would result in a Saturday gross around ¥1.7 billion ($16 million). So...

Friday: ~¥1.3 billion ($12 million) / ~950,000 admissions.
Saturday: ~¥1.7 billion ($16 million) / ~1.3 million admissions.

Sunday will probably be between the two days, but likely closer to Saturday than Friday, but let's say right in the middle with ~¥1.5 billion ($14 million) / ~1.1 million admissions.

So possibly looking at an opening weekend of ¥3.2 billion ($30 million) / 2.4 million admissions, and a 3-day total of ¥4.5 billion ($42/43 million) / 3.3/3.4 million admissions. This would be just completely ridiculous, as it'd break the opening weekend record by almost ¥1 billion and about 1 million admissions. It'd also double the current 3-day record as well. And its 3-day total would be greater than all but 2 or 3 film's two-week (9/10-day) totals. But, it's looking realistic right now.

Even an average multiplier off that OW would take Demon Slayer above ¥20 billion total! I'm really curious how high it can potentially go.

Some are anticipating a gross above ¥15 billion (~$150 million), and even ¥20 billion ($200 million), as you suggested, or higher, is being considered.

Demon Slayer has gone beyond just being a popular anime/manga series, and has truly become a social phenomenon in the country. I elaborated more in a prior post, but it checks all the boxes on what makes something a social phenomenon: An emotional or tragic story involving siblings/family or a couple, high critical/audience acclaim, popular chart-topping songs/soundtrack, and strong female support (unusual for most Shonen manga). Almost every top grossing film (or brand) in Japan has had these four ingredients that drove their success.

It would really be interesting seeing its legs because even with average legs this will do HUGE numbers. Its just been too long where BO has become interesting and these numbers are just out-of-this-world.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Saturday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Usual Locations (70% of the Market):

07AM - 11,314 (~15,800)...........................08AM - 30,010 (~42,000)
09AM - 93,760 (~131,300).........................10AM - 142,242 (~199,100)
11AM - 181,599 (~254,200)........................12PM - 276,561 (~387,200)
01PM - 336,368 (~470,900)........................02PM - 367,422 (~514,400)
03PM - 461,081 (~645,500)........................04PM -
05PM - ......................06PM -
07PM - ......................08PM -
09PM - ......................10PM -
11PM - ......................12AM -
FINAL -

Note: Usual location admissions is the first number (70% of market), while I'm providing a projected overall admissions number in (parenthesis).

As of 3pm, it has sold 79.1% of its available seats up to that point.


Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Friday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Insane!!!

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Saturday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Usual Locations (70% of the Market):

07AM - 11,314 (~15,800)...........................08AM - 30,010 (~42,000)
09AM - 93,760 (~131,300).........................10AM - 142,242 (~199,100)
11AM - 181,599 (~254,200)........................12PM - 276,561 (~387,200)
01PM - 336,368 (~470,900)........................02PM - 367,422 (~514,400)
03PM - 461,081 (~645,500)........................04PM - 520,550 (~728,800)
05PM - ......................06PM -
07PM - ......................08PM -
09PM - ......................10PM -
11PM - ......................12AM -
FINAL -

Note: Usual location admissions is the first number (70% of market), while I'm providing a projected overall admissions number in (parenthesis).

As of 4pm, it has sold 79.5% of its available seats up to that point.


Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Friday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Last hour was 82.93%. 629k seats remaining for rest of day. If it maintain 80%, it will cruise past 1mn. But last night post 22:00 was very slow weirdly. Though even 70% will see 960k.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Saturday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Usual Locations (70% of the Market):

07AM - 11,314 (~15,800)...........................08AM - 30,010 (~42,000)
09AM - 93,760 (~131,300).........................10AM - 142,242 (~199,100)
11AM - 181,599 (~254,200)........................12PM - 276,561 (~387,200)
01PM - 336,368 (~470,900)........................02PM - 367,422 (~514,400)
03PM - 461,081 (~645,500)........................04PM - 520,550 (~728,800)
05PM - 559,281 (~783,000)........................06PM -
07PM - ......................08PM -
09PM - ......................10PM -
11PM - ......................12AM -
FINAL -

Note: Usual location admissions is the first number (70% of market), while I'm providing a projected overall admissions number in (parenthesis).

As of 5pm, it has sold 79.1% of its available seats up to that point.


Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Friday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Saturday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Usual Locations (70% of the Market):

07AM - 11,314 (~15,800)...........................08AM - 30,010 (~42,000)
09AM - 93,760 (~131,300).........................10AM - 142,242 (~199,100)
11AM - 181,599 (~254,200)........................12PM - 276,561 (~387,200)
01PM - 336,368 (~470,900)........................02PM - 367,422 (~514,400)
03PM - 461,081 (~645,500)........................04PM - 520,550 (~728,800)
05PM - 559,281 (~783,000)........................06PM - 631,480 (~884,100)
07PM - ......................08PM -
09PM - ......................10PM -
11PM - ......................12AM -
FINAL -

Note: Usual location admissions is the first number (70% of market), while I'm providing a projected overall admissions number in (parenthesis).

As of 6pm, it has sold 78.5% of its available seats up to that point.


Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Friday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Saturday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Usual Locations (70% of the Market):

07AM - 11,314 (~15,800)...........................08AM - 30,010 (~42,000)
09AM - 93,760 (~131,300).........................10AM - 142,242 (~199,100)
11AM - 181,599 (~254,200)........................12PM - 276,561 (~387,200)
01PM - 336,368 (~470,900)........................02PM - 367,422 (~514,400)
03PM - 461,081 (~645,500)........................04PM - 520,550 (~728,800)
05PM - 559,281 (~783,000)........................06PM - 631,480 (~884,100)
07PM - 689,893 (~965,800)........................08PM -
09PM - ......................10PM -
11PM - ......................12AM -
FINAL -

Note: Usual location admissions is the first number (70% of market), while I'm providing a projected overall admissions number in (parenthesis).

As of 7pm, it has sold 78.6% of its available seats up to that point.


Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Friday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

So it has already broken yesterday's record with 5 hours left to go. That's incredible.

Yep. I'm staying up all-night so I don't miss out on this historic moment. Japan is a never say never sort of market regarding records, even if it might take decades for something to be broken, but I just can't imagine what Demon Slayer is doing this weekend ever being topped.

It's going to break the opening weekend record, which has stood for 17-years (and includes a ton of previews), by possibly ¥1 billion and 1 million admissions. Just its Saturday alone won't be far off the opening weekend record. And its 3-day total could be higher than the two-week total of any past film. These are just some of the crazy records it's totally shattering, not simply beating, in its first three days. Who knows what it might put up afterwards.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Saturday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Usual Locations (70% of the Market):

07AM - 11,314 (~15,800)...........................08AM - 30,010 (~42,000)
09AM - 93,760 (~131,300).........................10AM - 142,242 (~199,100)
11AM - 181,599 (~254,200)........................12PM - 276,561 (~387,200)
01PM - 336,368 (~470,900)........................02PM - 367,422 (~514,400)
03PM - 461,081 (~645,500)........................04PM - 520,550 (~728,800)
05PM - 559,281 (~783,000)........................06PM - 631,480 (~884,100)
07PM - 689,893 (~965,800)........................08PM - 791,427 (~1,108,000)
09PM - ......................10PM -
11PM - ......................12AM -
FINAL -

Note: Usual location admissions is the first number (70% of market), while I'm providing a projected overall admissions number in (parenthesis).

As of 8pm, it has sold 78.9% of its available seats up to that point.


Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Friday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Will easily make it into the top 10 highest-grossing films of 2020 (needs $135m). Corpse, do you know if any release is scheduled in China ? In South-Korea ? And in other Asian countries ? It needs $309m to make top 5 and $427m to make top 2.

It has a November release date in Thailand. That's the only confirmed date so far to my knowledge. Well, it's supposed to be released in the U.S. in early 2021, but I'm doubting that.

And who knows where it could end up in Japan. This is such an unprecedented opening, and not just because it's breaking all the records, it's by just how much it's beating them by. A ¥20 billion ($200 million) total would be "expected" from a regular ole multiplier with how high its opening, and given the status the film has achieved, and its reception so far, it could do more than that. ¥25 billion ($250 million) would happen with just a good multiplier.

But this is very uncharted territory, so I don't want to get too into the "what will it gross?" conversation right now.

Ironically, COVID--the box-office killer almost everywhere else--is the only way this is happening right now, since it's allowed for crazy record seating. It would have been big in a normal year, certainly, but it'd be restricted to an extent. And COVID has Hollywood pulling or delaying all their films, so the next several months are totally empty outside of local competition. There's plenty of local films opening, and the Japan box-office can support itself fine enough, but Demon Slayer will be playing insanely wide for months with Hollywood's absence and could develop into a strong repeat viewer.

KNY movie SEA tentative dates

Fan's Screening (FS)
Japan import Fan's Screening (JIFS)
General Screening (GS)

SG:
FS NC16 - 7 nov
FS PG13 - 14 nov
GS NC16 - 19 nov
GS PG13 - 3 dec
JIFS NC16 - 19 dec
JIFS PG 13 - 26 dec

MY & BN(BN only have GS) :
FS - 5 Dec
JIFS - 19 Dec
GS - 4 Feb 21

VN :
FS - 19 nov
JIFS - 26 Nov
GS - 9 Jan 21

ID/PH/Myanmar :
FS - Jan 2021
GS - Feb 2021

Also China is a generic 2020 and Taiwan late 2020 IIRC.

I'm glad you joined, JustLurking!

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Saturday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Usual Locations (70% of the Market):

07AM - 11,314 (~15,800)...........................08AM - 30,010 (~42,000)
09AM - 93,760 (~131,300).........................10AM - 142,242 (~199,100)
11AM - 181,599 (~254,200)........................12PM - 276,561 (~387,200)
01PM - 336,368 (~470,900)........................02PM - 367,422 (~514,400)
03PM - 461,081 (~645,500)........................04PM - 520,550 (~728,800)
05PM - 559,281 (~783,000)........................06PM - 631,480 (~884,100)
07PM - 689,893 (~965,800)........................08PM - 791,427 (~1,108,000)
09PM - 890,103 (~1,246,100).....................10PM -
11PM - ......................12AM -
FINAL -

Note: Usual location admissions is the first number (70% of market), while I'm providing a projected overall admissions number in (parenthesis).

As of 9pm, it has sold 78.8% of its available seats up to that point.


Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Friday Cumulative Hourly Sales]