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 Japan Box Office: Obon Festival 2019 
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (03/16-17)
Here is how Captain Marvel performed on Saturday compared to every Marvel/DC film that has opened above ¥300 million since 2015 (at the usual locations = two-thirds of market):

92% higher than Black Panther (¥309.7 million)
79% higher than Aquaman (¥314.3 million)
50% higher than Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice (¥371.3 million)
43% higher than Deadpool (¥383.3 million)
33% higher than Deadpool 2 (¥375.1 million)
28% higher than Doctor Strange (¥394.1 million)
27% higher than Suicide Squad (¥390.1 million)
12% higher than Captain America: Civil War (¥448.8 million)
04% higher than Venom (¥439.0 million)
03% higher than Spider-Man: Homecoming (¥448.5 million)
_________
24% lower than Avengers: Infinity War (¥672.4 million)
33% lower than Avengers: Age of Ultron (¥793.9 million)

Each film's opening weekend is in parenthesis.

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Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:02 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (03/16-17)
That's a relative overperformance by Captain Marvel. I assume it's just the connection to Endgame that's boosting the numbers like everywhere else?


Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:31 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (03/16-17)
I wouldn't say there is a connection to Endgame. It's an origin movie set in the 90s. It's more so because of its proximity to Endgame's release, just like Black Panther's over-performance due to its proximity to Infinity War's release.


Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:49 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (03/16-17)
There might be some benefit that Captain Marvel is receiving by being released between the last two Avenger films. It is performing significantly better than it really should be.

However, while Captain Marvel is going to have the biggest opening weekend for a Marvel/DC film in the market outside of Avengers/Spider-Man films, it's showing early signs of heavy frontloading. Its Sunday is going to be down 15-20% compared to Saturday, which is quite high. As a result, it's going to debut in second place behind Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration in weekend admissions. It'll probably still take the #1 spot in revenue due to a much higher avg. ticket price, but it's going to be pretty close.

As for Black Panther, it didn't receive any boost in Japan by being released a couple months before Infinity War, which makes sense because why would it? While hyped some, Infinity War wasn't the finale, and its opening weekend was actually below Age of Ultron in the market (it would outgross it though).

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Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:46 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (03/16-17)
I think a film about a black superhero would not make 300 million if not for its connection to the MCU and its proximity to a big event film coming out soon. Do you have any other examples of black movies doing this well? If not, I see it as an over-performance in the market.


Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:00 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (03/16-17)
Hancock opened much higher (more than double) than Black Panther, as have many other films starring Will Smith.

But, it is very rare for films starring a black lead or ensemble to do well in Japan, and the only examples of hits do exclusively star Will Smith (at least pre-2013). Denzel Washinton/Samuel L. Jackson/Morgan Freeman have found some success in the market as well, but nothing beyond just average numbers at the box-office.

So, I wouldn't argue against Black Panther being considered an over-performer in the market, just that I don't think coming out shortly before Infinity War provided it a noticeable boost. It was released a few weeks (maybe a month later) in Japan after its debut in the U.S., and given how huge it was in the U.S., I'm more inclined to link its success to its U.S. numbers since that helps build interest and awareness in the market.

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Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:39 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (03/16-17)
Typically, black movies don't get released in Japan, right? Such as Get Out or Spike Lee movies or the latest Madea comedy...


Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:45 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (03/16-17)
Some high-profile films receive very limited releases (typically no more than a handful of locations), but they generally do not receive theatrical releases.

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Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:27 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (03/16-17)
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Weekend Estimates (03/16-17)
01 (---) ¥460,000,000 ($4.1 million), 0, ¥665,000,000 ($5.9 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥434,000,000 ($3.9 million), -29%, ¥2,050,000,000 ($18.5 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3
03 (---) ¥270,000,000 ($2.4 million), 0, ¥270,000,000 ($2.4 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) NEW
04 (02) ¥224,000,000 ($2.0 million), -17%, ¥2,015,000,000 ($18.1 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK4
05 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) NEW
06 (03) ¥131,000,000 ($1.2 million), -31%, ¥1,100,000,000 ($9.9 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK3
07 (04) ¥x91,000,000 ($815,000), -43%, ¥500,000,000 ($4.5 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony) WK2
08 (---) ¥x85,000,000 ($760,000), 0, ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) NEW
09 (05) ¥x80,000,000 ($715,000), -45%, ¥435,000,000 ($3.9 million), The Mule (Warner Bros.) WK2
10 (06) ¥x54,000,000 ($485,000), -31%, ¥12,505,000,000 ($112.1 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK19


>Captain Marvel likely debuted atop the weekend box-office (it will have to settle for second place in admissions though), but it was quite frontloaded over the weekend and came in below what early ticket sales were suggesting. Still, if it can remain above ¥448.8 million with actuals, it'll achieve the biggest opening weekend for a Marvel/DC film outside of the Avengers and Spider-Man franchises.

As long as it doesn't behave more frontloaded than the average Marvel film, it should finish between the ¥2.5-¥3.0 billion ($22-27 million) range. If it can reach the ¥3 billion milestone, which will be a significant challenge, it would join the original Batman as the only non-Avengers/Spider-Man film to reach that mark.

>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration probably fell to second place in its third weekend, but it will claim its third weekend consecutive weekend atop the weekend box-office in admissions by a comfortable margin (likely 50,000+). Its third weekend is slightly below last year's film, though it does continue to narrow the gap between it and the franchise record setter. A total around ¥4.5 billion ($40 million) is still very likely, and ¥5 billion ($45 million) is still possible.

>Precure Miracle Universe is the 26th entry in the overall Precure film franchise, and it continues to improve upon the renewed box-office success the series has enjoyed over the past year or so. I'll wait for actuals before doing some research, but I'm pretty confident this is easily one of the biggest (likely Top 3/5) debuts in the overall franchise.

>You Shine in the Moonlight performed much better in its debut than pre-sales suggested. Romantic films tend to have strong legs this time of year, and this opening could be high enough for it to reach the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone.

>Bohemian Rhapsody is in a close race for the #10 spot with the debut of the latest Shimajiro film. I believe it has the slight edge to round out the top 10 (its nineteenth-consecutive week there) due to its wider release, and higher avg. ticket price, but we'll definitely need actuals to decide this one.

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Last edited by Corpse on Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:57 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Marvel/DC Box Office History
Marvel & DC Box Office History (1980-)

Opening Weekends:
¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥672.4 million ($6.2 million) - Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012)

¥460.0 million ($4.1 million) - Captain Marvel (2019) *Estimate*
¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥448.5 million ($4.1 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)

¥439.0 million ($3.9 million) - Venom (2018)
¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)

¥394.1 million ($3.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥390.1 million ($3.8 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥375.1 million ($3.4 million) - Deadpool 2 (2018)
¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥322.2 million ($2.9 million) - Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018)
¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) - Aquaman (2019)
¥309.7 million ($2.9 million) - Black Panther (2018)
¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)

¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥266.5 million ($2.4 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)

¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥249.4 million ($2.2 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥230.6 million ($2.0 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)

¥204.4 million ($1.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥163.3 million ($1.4 million) - Logan (2017)
¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)
¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011)

¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011)

¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)


Totals:
¥7.50 billion ($59.2 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥7.12 billion ($66.9 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥6.70 billion ($61.1 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥3.74 billion ($34.1 million) - Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
¥3.61 billion ($46.2 million) - The Avengers (2012)
¥3.21 billion ($26.0 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥3.16 billion ($39.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥3.14 billion ($30.7 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)

¥3.00 billion ($20.0 million) - Batman (1989)
¥2.80 billion ($25.6 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥2.63 billion ($24.1 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥2.57 billion ($26.4 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)
¥2.55 billion ($12.0 million) - Superman II (1981)
¥2.25 billion ($20.0 million) - Venom (2018)
¥2.04 billion ($19.2 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥1.97 billion ($24.2 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥1.87 billion ($16.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥1.86 billion ($16.9 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥1.85 billion ($18.1 million) - X-Men (2000)
¥1.80 billion ($16.3 million) - Deadpool 2 (2018)
¥1.80 billion ($15.9 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥1.76 billion ($17.0 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥1.60 billion ($15.8 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥1.56 billion ($14.5 million) - Black Panther (2018)
¥1.55 billion ($14.0 million) - Aquaman (2019) [5 Weeks in Release]
¥1.53 billion ($14.3 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥1.50 billion ($11.9 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥1.40 billion ($14.1 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥1.34 billion ($12.2 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)
¥1.32 billion ($11.7 million) - Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018)
¥1.21 billion ($10.0 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥1.20 billion ($13.7 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥1.15 billion ($10.2 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥1.14 billion ($10.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥1.10 billion ($9.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥1.07 billion ($9.7 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥1.03 billion ($10.1 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)

¥970 million ($9.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥950 million ($10.1 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)
¥900 million ($9.3 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥900 million ($9.8 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥850 million ($8.2 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥830 million ($6.9 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥820 million ($8.4 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥800 million ($8.9 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥750 million ($8.0 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥740 million ($6.8 million) - Logan (2017)
¥725 million ($6.9 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)

¥700 million ($6.8 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥650 million ($6.3 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥550 million ($7.0 million) - Thor (2011)

¥420 million ($4.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥400 million ($5.0 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥370 million ($3.3 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥240 million ($2.0 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)
¥200 million ($1.9 million) - Green Lantern (2011)


Marvel/DC

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Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:00 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (03/16-17)
Weekend Actuals and Chart Updates will be posted tonight -- sorry I didn't get to them yesterday.

But... Captain Marvel came in below estimates and missed the #1 spot, as well as the title of biggest debut for a non-Avengers/Spider-Man film among Marvel/DC releases... It's still a good, strong number, one that could be considered a "breakout", but certainly disappointing how it ended up a lot lower than early numbers indicated.

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Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:30 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (03/16-17)
So, apparently Det. Pikachu has a release date of May 3rd in Japan (earlier than rest of world), and people on the /r/boxoffice reddit are predicting batshit crazy numbers of over $100m and such. (Somebody is saying this will do $190m and implies potential to beat Frozen...)

Here's the thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comm ... y_3rd_the/

I just want to confirm that, as far as you believe, DP is likely to do nowhere near those numbers, given the usual rejection of Hollywood adaptations to Japanese properties?


Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (03/16-17)
I really don't know about Detective Pikachu. I'm pretty sure people will over-predict it tremendously, but we'll see. I don't think it'll do better numbers than the highest grossing animated films because it's not going to bring in the children like some probably expect. The audience that watch the animated films every year are largely very young children, so Detective Pikachu is going to have to manage to appeal to adult audiences to find success in the market.

Interest also doesn't appear very high on any Japanese movie sites (still not appearing in any Top 100 searches, for example). It's a tough one to gauge.

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Last edited by Corpse on Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:44 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (03/16-17)
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Weekend Actuals (03/16-17)
01 (01) ¥437,689,000 ($3.9 million), -28%, ¥2,057,055,800 ($18.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3
02 (---) ¥426,588,100 ($3.8 million), 0, ¥615,115,100 ($5.5 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) NEW
03 (---) ¥248,351,400 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥248,351,400 ($2.2 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) NEW
04 (02) ¥227,142,000 ($2.0 million), -16%, ¥2,035,279,800 ($18.3 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK4
05 (---) ¥142,603,100 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥199,536,600 ($1.8 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) NEW
06 (03) ¥136,303,900 ($1.2 million), -28%, ¥1,116,565,600 ($10.0 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK3
07 (04) ¥x93,549,900 ($841,000), -41%, ¥489,181,200 ($4.4 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony) WK2
08 (---) ¥x88,402,600 ($799,000), 0, ¥137,675,500 ($1.2 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) NEW
09 (05) ¥x84,534,600 ($760,000), -42%, ¥454,973,500 ($4.1 million), The Mule (Warner Bros.) WK2
10 (06) ¥x52,832,600 ($474,000), -33%, ¥12,504,559,180 ($112.1 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK19
11 (07) ¥x52,412,750 ($471,000), -25%, ¥594,539,650 ($5.3 million), My Girlfriend is a Mage (Nikkatsu) WK4
12 (---) ¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), 0, ¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), Shimajiro: Journey to Hero Land (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW *Est*
13 (08) ¥x36,221,700 ($326,000), -46%, ¥1,197,247,000 ($10.7 million), Fortuna's Eye (Toho) WK5
14 (11) ¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), -38%, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Ultraman R/B: Select! The Crystal of Bond (Shochiku) WK2 *Est.*
15 (13) ¥x31,380,100 ($282,000), -39%, ¥4,465,307,000 ($40.8 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK9
16 (12) ¥x30,075,700 ($270,000), -47%, ¥1,404,747,320 ($12.8 million), City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex) WK6


>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration managed to claim its third-consecutive weekend atop the weekend box-office with a good hold, one that allowed it to achieve the second biggest third weekend in the franchise (5% below last year's film). After three weeks in release, the thirty-ninth entry in the long-running franchise exceeded ¥2 billion and is now running 12% behind last year's record-setting release -- a slight improvement over the 13% it trailed last week, and 17% upon its debut. Expect a finish between ¥4.5-5.0 billion ($40-45 million).

>Captain Marvel was the favorite to take the #1 spot this weekend, ending what's almost certain to be a month long reign atop the weekend box-office for Doraemon, but ultimately proved to be very frontloaded and had to settle for second place. Marvel's latest sold 279,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 754 screens, and reached 408,225 admissions since Friday. Regardless of it failing to reach its potential heights, this is still a good debut that should result in a finish around ¥2.5 billion ($20-25 million).

>Precure Miracle Universe, the 26th entry in the overall Precure film franchise, debuted in third place and set a franchise opening weekend record for a Spring release in the franchise (the series has a new film open every Spring and Fall). The film sold a solid 221,579 admissions over the weekend on 230 screens. This is a very frontloaded franchise, but this debut should be enough to result in another ¥1 billion release for the franchise.

>Tonde Saitama continues to do excellent business, and exceeded the ¥2 billion milestone in its fourth weekend of release and is already up to a 7.8 multiplier. This film is very likely to reach the ¥3 billion ($25 million+) milestone now, and I honestly can't remember the last live-action Toei film that grossed that much -- it's been several years, I'm almost positive, and I'll look into it when the time comes.

>You Shine in the Moonlight debuts in fifth place, selling 118,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 299 screens, and reached 166,885 admissions since Friday. This certainly isn't a good opening, it's quite mediocre, but it is noticeably better than pre-sales suggested.

>Bohemian Rhapsody was in a very, very close race to earn its nineteenth-consecutive weekend in the top 10, and it did just that by a margin of just ¥419,850 ($3,700). It ties Frozen as the seventh film with the most recorded consecutive weekends in the top 10. Its phenomenal performance (remember that it achieved the highest known multiplier ever for a wide release several weeks back) is drawing to a close, and I expect it'll finish with about ¥12.7 billion ($114 million).

NOTE: With the expanded Weekend Actuals, it's going to be common for some films (mostly from independent studios) to have estimated weekend grosses and even totals. Any film with *Est.* after it will be one of these cases.

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Last edited by Corpse on Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:48 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2019
2019 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1 billion ↨
¥812.7 million ($7.2 million) / 639,000 [467] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥695.7 million ($6.2 million) / 586,000 [382] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) / 484,000 [349] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)

¥500 million ↨
¥490.5 million ($4.5 million) / 276,795 [131] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥453.6 million ($4.1 million) / 350,373 [468] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥426.6 million ($3.8 million) / 279,000 [754] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥389.0 million ($3.5 million) / 313,000 [332] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥334.3 million ($3.0 million) / 260,000 [329] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) / 210,000 [692] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)

¥300 million ↨
¥267.5 million ($2.4 million) / 206,636 [343] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥259.0 million ($2.3 million) / 191,000 [319] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)
¥257.1 million ($2.3 million) / 179,780 [251] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥251.4 million ($2.2 million) / 222,930 [368] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥248.3 million ($2.2 million) / 221,579 [230] - Precure Miracle Universe (Toei)
¥247.6 million ($2.2 million) / 152,000 [880] - Alita: Battle Angel (Fox)
¥221.5 million ($2.0 million) / 180,000 [387] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥217.2 million ($1.9 million) / 140,000 [120] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)
¥201.5 million ($1.8 million) / 154,000 [180] - Green Book (Gaga)

¥200 million ↨
¥199.2 million ($1.8 million) / 150,927 [326] - Snow Flowers (Warner Bros.)
¥188.4 million ($1.7 million) / 141,000 [302] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥186.2 million ($1.7 million) / 139,000 [654] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥185.0 million ($1.7 million) / 140,000 [396] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥161.3 million ($1.4 million) / 142,046 [439] - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
¥160.1 million ($1.4 million) / x98,074 [337] - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
¥152.4 million ($1.4 million) / 120,000 [207] - My Girlfriend is a Mage (Nikkei)
¥146.1 million ($1.3 million) / 116,000 [238] - The Mule (Warner Bros.)
¥142.6 million ($1.3 million) / 118,000 [299] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥137.0 million ($1.2 million) / 101,000 [331] - It Comes (Toho)
¥121.7 million ($1.1 million) / x86,286 [111] - Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division)
¥121.5 million ($1.1 million) / x88,000 [434] - First Man (Toho-Towa)
¥120.5 million ($1.0 million) / x89,919 [x89] - Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:48 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2019
2019 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥6.56 billion ($58.6 million) / 4.92 million [E] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.47 billion ($40.8 million) / 3.46 million [59] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥3.90 billion ($35.2 million) / 3.01 million [E] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥3.80 billion ($34.6 million) / 3.06 million [E] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.07 billion ($18.7 million) / 1.66 million [45] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥2.06 billion ($18.6 million) / 1.75 million [17] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥2.03 billion ($18.3 million) / 1.57 million [24] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.60 billion ($14.4 million) / 1.09 million [38] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)
¥1.55 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.27 million [E] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥1.53 billion ($13.8 million) / 0.98 million [E] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥1.52 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.20 million [E] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥1.43 billion ($13.0 million) / 1.07 million [E] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥1.40 billion ($12.8 million) / 1.00 million [38] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥1.27 billion ($11.5 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥1.21 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.09 million [E] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥1.20 billion ($10.7 million) / 0.94 million [31] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥1.11 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.89 million [17] - Green Book (Gaga)
¥1.11 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.71 million [73] - Love Live! The School Idol Movie - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku)
¥1.07 billion ($9.6 million) / 0.82 million [E] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥1.06 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.83 million [E] - A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku)
¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.84 million [38] - Snow Flower (Warner Bros.)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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Japan Box Office

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:48 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 2019 Weekend #1 Films
2019 - Weekend #1 Films

01/05-06: ¥335.8 million ($3.1 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK9
01/12-13: ¥490.5 million ($4.5 million) - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
01/19-20: ¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) - Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK1
01/26-27: ¥477.9 million ($4.4 million) - Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK2
02/02-03: ¥334.3 million ($3.0 million) - The Seven Conferences (Toho) WK1
02/09-10: ¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) - Aquaman (Warner Bros.) WK1
02/16-17: ¥195.9 million ($1.8 million) - Aquaman (Warner Bros.) WK2
02/23-24: ¥259.0 million ($2.3 million) - Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK1
03/02-03: ¥695.7 million ($6.2 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK1
03/09-10: ¥612.0 million ($5.5 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK2
03/16-17: ¥437.7 million ($3.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3


Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:58 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (03/16-17)
Corpse wrote:
I really don't know about Detective Pikachu. I'm pretty sure people will over-predict it tremendously, but we'll see. I don't think it'll do better numbers than the highest grossing animated films because it's not going to bring in the children like some probably expect. The audience that watch the animated films every year are largely very young children, so Detective Pikachu is going to have to manage to appeal to adult audiences to find success in the market.

Interest also doesn't appear very high on any Japanese movie sites (still not appearing in any Top 100 searches, for example). It's a tough one to gauge.


I've also heard accounts that the trailer wasn't very well received in Japan. It seems adults found it weird or confusing, particularly the way Pikachu speaks and acts. Also, the tone seems grittier and lacks the lighthearted charm and whimsy of the Pokemon universe they are accustomed to.

By the way, has it been announced who will be voicing Pikachu in the dubbed version? I thought the reason movies were delayed in Japan for weeks or months was to give time for dubbing, but Detective Pikachu is releasing in Japan one week before anywhere else.


Last edited by R136a1 on Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:09 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (03/16-17)
I'm new here but I'm curious about Osomatsu-san movie underperforming so badly or is it too soon?


Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (03/1
Corpse wrote:
.

Endgame will definitely increase over Infinity War. Finale films almost always see big gains over their predecessors on opening weekend, as long as they don't follow a particularly poorly received predecessor.


What would that mean for the Star Wars sequel trilogy finale film when it hits Japan, because I heard Last Jedi reception in Japan was kinda mixed or so if true, so would that mean that Episode 9 would probably decrease because of those reasons?


Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (03/16-17)
R136a1 wrote:
Corpse wrote:
I really don't know about Detective Pikachu. I'm pretty sure people will over-predict it tremendously, but we'll see. I don't think it'll do better numbers than the highest grossing animated films because it's not going to bring in the children like some probably expect. The audience that watch the animated films every year are largely very young children, so Detective Pikachu is going to have to manage to appeal to adult audiences to find success in the market.

Interest also doesn't appear very high on any Japanese movie sites (still not appearing in any Top 100 searches, for example). It's a tough one to gauge.


I've also heard accounts that the trailer wasn't very well received in Japan. It seems adults found it weird or confusing, particularly the way Pikachu speaks and acts. Also, the tone seems grittier and lacks the lighthearted charm and whimsy of the Pokemon universe they are accustomed to.

By the way, has it been announced who will be voicing Pikachu in the dubbed version? I thought the reason movies were delayed in Japan for weeks or months was to give time for dubbing, but Detective Pikachu is releasing in Japan one week before anywhere else.


Pikachu's dub voice hasn't been announced, to my knowledge. It was just announced yesterday, along with the May 3rd release date, who the actors are dubbing the two lead human characters. So, it is receiving a dub cast.

Toho is the sole distributor in Japan, which gives it some needed "credibility" in the market.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:34 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (03/1
lafayettecalboy wrote:
Corpse wrote:
.

Endgame will definitely increase over Infinity War. Finale films almost always see big gains over their predecessors on opening weekend, as long as they don't follow a particularly poorly received predecessor.


What would that mean for the Star Wars sequel trilogy finale film when it hits Japan, because I heard Last Jedi reception in Japan was kinda mixed or so if true, so would that mean that Episode 9 would probably decrease because of those reasons?


Welcome to the forum, and good question.

The Last Jedi may indeed fall into the "particularly poorly received" category I was talking about. While its opening weekend was strong (almost on par with the predecessor), it displayed bad legs and ended up dropping 36% from The Force Awakens. That's a higher drop than Attack of the Clones had after The Phantom Menace (27% decline).

Revenge of the Sith ultimately finished below Attack of the Clones in Japan as well, declining by 2%, so it's probably reasonable to expect Episode XIIII to finish either on par or slightly below The Last Jedi.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:40 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (03/16-17)
MP10 wrote:
I'm new here but I'm curious about Osomatsu-san movie underperforming so badly or is it too soon?

The Osomatsu-san anime did insanely well in its first season, dropped a lot (but was still huge relative to other shows) in its second season, and everything released since then (some specials, live events) has been pretty middling at best. It was a huge phenomenon, but seems to have faded fairly quickly. I doubt it's losing anyone money at this point - it's probably got a good stream of residual revenue coming in from many different sources - but we definitely can't use the peak of its uber-popularity as the yardstick anymore.


Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:35 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 2019 Weekend #1 Films
Corpse wrote:
Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)


Doesn't this only work for opening weekends?


Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:30 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 2019 Weekend #1 Films
Algren wrote:
Corpse wrote:
Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)


Doesn't this only work for opening weekends?


More so, yes, but it also works for the #1 weekend films by displaying how the weekend itself played. For example, if the #1 film did ¥500 million+, debut or otherwise, it's pretty great for the weekend box office, and the more of these the better. If the #1 film each week is only doing ¥100 million or ¥200 million, it's a good sign that the box-office is in a weakened state (naturally).

2018 Results:

7 (13.5%) Red.
10 (19.2%) Green.
19 (36.5%) Blue.
13 (25.0%) Silver.
3 (5.8%) Gold.

Blue is the most common each year, and the box-office year tends to show its strength, or weakness, the closer either Green (weak) or Silver (strong) weekend #1 films approach Blue. In 2018, 67.3%, a full two-thirds, of the weekend #1 films achieved grosses above ¥300 million (good), while a solid 30.8% of them achieved ¥500 million (great) or higher. 2018 was a strong year, but it was a but more subdued compared to the past few years.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:54 pm
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