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 Japan Box Office: Obon Festival Actuals; Charts Updated! 
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
mark66 wrote:
So BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY is heading towards $65m?
'

It'll break $65 million in two weeks, most likely. Its weekly gross has refused to drop (earning $8/9 million every week), even after six weeks, so it should be aiming for $80-90 million+. It's guaranteed to become the highest grossing imported release of 2018, and might end up as the overall highest grossing film of 2018 as well.

Until it finally has a weekend/weekly result below its opening week, the sky remains the limit. $100 million may even be in play, at least until it shows some sign of slowing down. And with New Year approaching, its opening week may remain its lowest until week ten.

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Last edited by Corpse on Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:54 am, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:48 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
Wow...

Do you think it will exceed 7m admissions?

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Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:52 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
mark66 wrote:
Wow...

Do you think it will exceed 7m admissions?


50/50. The thing is, it's skewing older (not senior old, but firmly adult), unsurprisingly, and films that are bringing in primarily adults generally see the biggest New Year boost because the bank holidays are some of the only days they get off in the year.

We may not be seeing its weekend/weekly numbers at their peak quite yet.

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Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:58 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
Corpse wrote:
mark66 wrote:
Wow...

Do you think it will exceed 7m admissions?


50/50. The thing is, it's skewing older (not senior old, but firmly adult), unsurprisingly, and films that are bringing in primarily adults generally see the biggest New Year boost because the bank holidays are some of the only days they get off in the year.

We may not be seeing its weekend/weekly numbers at their peak quite yet.


Do you think A Star Is Born will siphon some of Bohemian Rhapsody's audience when it opens?


Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
So based on the actual gross, the actual attendance, the average ticket sales and the Mimorin ticket projections.

I'd wager that on Monday it made ¥80 million.


Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:17 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
R136a1 wrote:
Corpse wrote:
mark66 wrote:
Wow...

Do you think it will exceed 7m admissions?


50/50. The thing is, it's skewing older (not senior old, but firmly adult), unsurprisingly, and films that are bringing in primarily adults generally see the biggest New Year boost because the bank holidays are some of the only days they get off in the year.

We may not be seeing its weekend/weekly numbers at their peak quite yet.


Do you think A Star Is Born will siphon some of Bohemian Rhapsody's audience when it opens?


Probably not. Ultra-leggy, WOM smashes like this are never really affected by any competition.

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Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:25 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
BoRhap currently completely flat from last Tuesday, and takes 1st place back handily.


Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:52 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
Broly looking at around ¥55 million on Tuesday. A big drop but that did happen with Resurrection F just the same.


Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:59 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
feasby007 wrote:
BoRhap currently completely flat from last Tuesday, and takes 1st place back handily.


Each individual weekday has been roughly flat since it opened...six weeks ago. It's simply refusing to drop more than 5% or so (and it often even increases) every day since day 1, and it's now day 40. I honestly think it's going to take over 2 months in release before it begins any kind of decline.

I'll have Weekend Actuals and the usual chart updates up later this evening.

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Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:06 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
Broly probably made about ¥62 million today. An increase from yesterday just like Resurrection F did.

Should be over ¥1.2 billion now.


Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:04 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
So... moviegoers who attend a showing of Bohemian Rhapsody beginning December 22nd (this Saturday) will receive a special Christmas card while supplies last. This probably seems like a meaningless gimmick, but Japanese audiences typically eat this type of promotion up since it gives them an additional reason to pay for a movie ticket.



And I haven't forgotten this past weekend's actuals! A few numbers will be placeholders until tomorrow, but I'll be posting them very soon.

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Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:31 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
Corpse wrote:
So... moviegoers who attend a showing of Bohemian Rhapsody beginning December 22nd (this Saturday) will receive a special Christmas card while supplies last. This probably seems like a meaningless gimmick, but Japanese audiences typically eat this type of promotion up since it gives them an additional reason to pay for a movie ticket.



And I haven't forgotten this past weekend's actuals! A few numbers will be placeholders until tomorrow, but I'll be posting them very soon.


So given the Christmas period is upon us, I feel like BoRhap was likely going to increase this weekend anyway. The question is, just how much can it increase given this promotion?


Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:01 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (12/15-16)
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(C)バードスタジオ/集英社 (C)「2018 ドラゴンボール超」製作委員会

Weekend Actuals (12/15-16)
01 (---) ¥812,697,700 ($7.2 million), 0, ¥1,050,805,000 ($9.3 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) NEW
02 (02) ¥431,538,700 ($3.8 million), -15%, ¥5,362,883,080 ($47.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK6
03 (01) ¥333,615,700 ($3.0 million), -35%, ¥4,602,139,800 ($41.0 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK4
04 (---) ¥251,396,400 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥268,885,800 ($2.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) NEW
05 (---) ¥221,477,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥255,353,600 ($2.3 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) NEW
06 (03) ¥x95,411,500 ($849,000), -30%, ¥404,144,900 ($3.6 million), It Comes (Toho) WK2
07 (04) ¥x64,458,900 ($573,000), -37%, ¥601,705,900 ($5.4 million), The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney) WK3
08 (---) ¥x58,578,700 ($521,000), 0, ¥x72,455,700 ($645,000), Waiting for Spring (Warner Bros.) NEW
09 (05) ¥x44,270,600 ($393,000), -45%, ¥449,862,300 ($4.0 million), Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku) WK3
10 (06) ¥x28,166,100 ($251,000), -29%, ¥1,830,608,600 ($16.2 million), Stolen Identity (Toho) WK7


>Dragon Ball Super: Broly ki-blasts its way to the top of the box office, selling an excellent 639,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 467 screens, and 824,205 admissions since opening on Friday. This debut is 11% below the last film, Resurrection F, and up 14% compared to Battle of Gods.

While it may seem slightly disappointing that it fell below the past film, do remember that Resurrection F was the final Dragon Ball Z film and brought back the franchise's longtime fan favorite villain, Frieza. It was going to be very difficult for Broly to match/exceed its opening weekend, so coming just 11% below it is an accomplishment, in my opinion. And I'm sure it'll be naturally frontloaded like the past films in the franchise, but the rush factor may have been less prominent this time, so a similar total could be likely. I expect it'll gross between ¥3.5-4.0 billion ($30-35 million).

>Bohemian Rhapsody holds very strong in second place, and experiences its first weekend decline to date... Its sixth weekend is bigger than its opening weekend, and its second and third weekends... Its weekly gross remains at phenomenal as ever, once again earning ¥975 million-¥1.075 billion ($9/10 million), a figure it has grossed every single week since opening. Its six week multiplier is now the highest known number, even higher than films like Spirited Away or Frozen.

Since it just refuses to slow down, at all, it's nearly impossible to project where it's headed, even six weeks into its release. If I had to make an educated guess based on how other ultra-leggy films performed from this point on, then I would expect a gross between ¥9-10 billion ($80-90 million), but it can certainly go higher because it has yet to receive any holiday boost.

>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald saw a sizable drop in its fourth weekend, but it's still an improvement over its predecessor. Its four week total continues to trail the first film, though, behind about 6% now which is also an improvement versus last week. Either the Wizarding World fanbase is very loyal (likely), or its reception isn't as bad as in the U.S. (also likely). Expect a total around ¥7 billion ($60-65 million).

>Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends, the fifth film in the franchise, was unable to halt the rapid decline the series is suffering from, dropping 37% compared to last year's film. It sold 222,930 admissions over the weekend frame on 368 screens, and 238,712 admissions since opening on Friday. I would say that given the low opening weekend that legs are probably going to be better than the previous entries, but... none of them have proved this to be true yet, so ¥1.5 billion ($13/14 million) is likely the ceiling here.

>The Grinch still hasn't had its weekend gross or admissions released yet, but it debuted in a disappointing fifth place (EDIT: Weekend Actual Updated Above). Since opening on Friday, it sold 210,923 admissions across 387 screens. This is by far the worst opening for an Illumination film since the original Despicable Me 8-years ago. It seems like Japanese audiences aren't fully committed to Illumination yet given this result, although, one could argue the property itself just had little appeal. We'll see how receptive moviegoers are to the next "original" Illumination release before making any sure comments.

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Last edited by Corpse on Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2018
2018 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥9.23 billion ($83.1 million) / 7.18 million [E] - Code Blue (Toho)
¥9.18 billion ($83.6 million) / 6.88 million [F] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho)
¥8.06 billion ($72.2 million) / 5.53 million [E] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Toho-Towa)
¥7.50 billion ($66.2 million) / 5.05 million [F] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
¥5.37 billion ($50.0 million) / 4.68 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho)
¥5.36 billion ($47.4 million) / 3.90 million [38] - Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
¥5.21 billion ($48.4 million) / 3.73 million [F] - The Greatest Showman (Fox)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.93 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.93 million [E] - Coco (Disney)
¥4.83 billion ($43.7 million) / 4.02 million [E] - Incredibles 2 (Disney)
¥4.68 billion ($42.2 million) / 3.39 million [E] - Mission: Impossible - Fallout (Toho-Towa)
¥4.60 billion ($41.0 million) / 3.26 million [24] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥4.53 billion ($40.9 million) / 3.67 million [F] - Shoplifters (Gaga)
¥3.73 billion ($34.0 million) / 2.50 million [F] - Avengers: Infinity War (Disney)
¥3.66 billion ($32.8 million) / 2.83 million [F] - Gintama 2 (Warner Bros.)
¥3.43 billion ($31.8 million) / 2.93 million [F] - The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa)
¥3.21 billion ($28.6 million) / 2.54 million [F] - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho)
¥3.06 billion ($27.5 million) / 2.19 million [E] - One Cut of the Dead (Asmik Ace)
¥3.00 billion ($27.2 million) / 2.64 million [E] - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Toho)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.90 billion ($26.1 million) / 2.30 million [E] - Killing for the Prosecutors (Toho)
¥2.82 billion ($25.7 million) / 2.24 million [E] - Mirai of the Future (Toho)
¥2.80 billion ($25.0 million) / 2.23 million [F] - The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku)
¥2.50 billion ($22.8 million) / 1.53 million [E] - Ready Player One (Warner Bros.)
¥2.41 billion ($21.3 million) / 1.81 million [E] - Christopher Robin (Disney)
¥2.15 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.49 million [45] - Venom (Sony)
¥2.09 billion ($18.9 million) / 1.50 million [E] - Solo: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
¥2.04 billion ($18.2 million) / 1.82 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.83 billion ($16.6 million) / 1.55 million [F] - Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho)
¥1.83 billion ($16.2 million) / 1.39 million [45] - Stolen Identity (Toho)
¥1.78 billion ($16.2 million) / 1.18 million [E] - Deadpool 2 (Fox)
¥1.73 billion ($16.1 million) / 1.47 million [F] - Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho)
¥1.70 billion ($15.5 million) / 1.40 million [F] - Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa)
¥1.70 billion ($15.3 million) / 1.22 million [F] - Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)
¥1.70 billion ($15.2 million) / 1.36 million [E] - Recall (Shochiku)
¥1.64 billion ($14.8 million) / 1.25 million [E] - Ocean's 8 (Warner Bros.)
¥1.62 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.28 million [F] - Murder on the Orient Express (Fox)
¥1.60 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.29 million [E] - My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (Toho)
¥1.59 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.27 million [F] - The Crimes That Bind (Toho)
¥1.55 billion ($14.4 million) / 1.03 million [F] - Black Panther (Disney)
¥1.48 billion ($13.0 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Meg (Warner Bros.)
¥1.45 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.14 million [E] - Café Funiculi Funicula (Toho)
¥1.38 billion ($12.4 million) / 1.06 million [F] - Laplace's Witch (Toho)
¥1.28 billion ($11.4 million) / 0.90 million [E] - Ant-Man and the Wasp (Disney)
¥1.26 billion ($11.3 million) / 1.06 million [E] - Kamen Hensei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid With Legend Riders (Toei)
¥1.23 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.90 million [E] - Geostorm (Warner Bros.)
¥1.21 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.97 million [E] - 50 First Kisses (Sony)
¥1.21 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.83 million [E] - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (Sony)
¥1.20 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.97 million [E] - Sakura: Guardian in the North (Toei)
¥1.18 billion ($10.7 million) / 1.00 million [E] - Sensei Kunshu (Toho)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.87 million [E] - Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.)
¥1.12 billion ($9.9 million) / 0.96 million [E] - Hugtto! Pretty Cure: All Star Memories (Toei)
¥1.11 billion ($9.9 million) / 0.89 million [E] - Peter Rabbit (Sony)
¥1.11 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.88 million [E] - Every Day, A Good Day (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)
¥1.01 billion ($9.5 million) / 0.79 million [E] - Tonight, at the Movies (Warner Bros.)
¥1.00 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Kamen Rider Build: Be the One (Toei)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2019
2019 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1 billion ↨
¥812.7 million ($7.2 million) / 639,000 [467] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥500 million ↨
¥300 million ↨
¥251.4 million ($2.2 million) / 222,930 [368] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥221.5 million ($2.0 million) / 180,000 [387] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)

¥200 million ↨
¥161.3 million ($1.4 million) / 142,046 [439] - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
¥137.0 million ($1.2 million) / 101,000 [331] - It Comes (Toho)
¥120.5 million ($1.0 million) / x89,919 [x89] - Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)[/quote]

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Last edited by Corpse on Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
What kind of total is the Grinch looking at with that opening? It appears to have bombed all across Asia, but Japan usually has better legs for animated films.


Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:25 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
feasby007 wrote:
Corpse wrote:
So... moviegoers who attend a showing of Bohemian Rhapsody beginning December 22nd (this Saturday) will receive a special Christmas card while supplies last. This probably seems like a meaningless gimmick, but Japanese audiences typically eat this type of promotion up since it gives them an additional reason to pay for a movie ticket.



So given the Christmas period is upon us, I feel like BoRhap was likely going to increase this weekend anyway. The question is, just how much can it increase given this promotion?


It probably won't increase too much. It's not growing, exactly, rather it continues to do almost the same identical numbers every week. It's selling the same number of tickets almost every day (no more than 5% either way most days). All of its Mondays, Tuesdays, etc. are almost identical and have been that way since it opened. Every week, all six weeks so far, it has earned between ¥950 million-¥1.075 billion ($8.6-9.6 million) -- that's incredible, phenomenal, consistency.

It seems very evident that it's not a particularly broad appealing film; otherwise it'd be making notable gains each week. Instead, it has found a very, very devoted demographic(s) that hasn't been appeased yet.

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Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:30 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
R136a1 wrote:
What kind of total is the Grinch looking at with that opening? It appears to have bombed all across Asia, but Japan usually has better legs for animated films.


¥1.5-2.0 billion ($13-18 million or so). It shouldn't reach $20 million.

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Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:32 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
Corpse wrote:
It seems very evident that it's not a particularly broad appealing film; otherwise it'd be making notable gains each week. Instead, it has found a very, very devoted demographic(s) that hasn't been appeased yet.


Does this mean that Bohemian Rhapsody wouldn't really be affected by screen/showtime loss since the supply greatly exceeds the demand? Based on its weekly gross, it doesn't appear the occupancy for each showing is anywhere near capacity.


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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
By next weekend BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY will have made more money in December than in November - will it therefore count as a 2019 season movie?

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Dragon Ball Super: Broly Debuts
R136a1 wrote:
Corpse wrote:
It seems very evident that it's not a particularly broad appealing film; otherwise it'd be making notable gains each week. Instead, it has found a very, very devoted demographic(s) that hasn't been appeased yet.


Does this mean that Bohemian Rhapsody wouldn't really be affected by screen/showtime loss since the supply greatly exceeds the demand? Based on its weekly gross, it doesn't appear the occupancy for each showing is anywhere near capacity.


Well, it's still reaching 20-25% capacity each weekday, and around 40% on each of its weekends. That's mighty impressive after six weeks in release. Sure, there's a lot of capacity left to fill, but there's not really an additional audience there to fill that space.

But to answer your question, this does mean it won't be affected by much screen or showtime loss for quite some time, likely not until it begins to decline (probably the second week of January). But then again, if it receives key nominations and is able to win in any major categories during award season... it could go on, and on, perhaps even until early spring.

And theater chains in Japan are pretty smart when it comes to allocating screens and showtimes. If a film continues to do good business (ranking near the top of the charts), then most won't cut it much, if at all, even if it's been in release for 6 weeks, 2 months, 3 months, and hell, even half a year in some cases. Openers don't really have much of an impact on them.

And keep in mind that Japan isn't a market where going to the movies is regular entertainment; the average Japanese sees one or two films every year. There's plenty of seating available in the market.

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Last edited by Corpse on Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.



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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
mark66 wrote:
By next weekend BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY will have made more money in December than in November - will it therefore count as a 2019 season movie?


Good question. :)

This is where the box office year in Japan becomes a bit confusing (Dec. 01-Nov. 30), more so than normal. Since Bohemian Rhapsody will end up grossing more than 50% of its cumulative total after December 1st, then it will likely be counted as a 2019 release. For the time being I'll keep it on the 2018 charts that I update weekly, but Eiren will almost certainly rule it a 2019 film.

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is another one that may end up a 2019 release. It's been holding quite well and unless it suddenly drops hard in the upcoming weeks (it is losing a hefty amount of screens/showtimes this weekend), then it seems likely to be moved from 2018 to 2019 as well. The same thing happened with the original film back in 2016, which may have been the last time this situation occurred.

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Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:16 pm
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Speed Racer
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:01 pm
Posts: 193
Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
Thanks, Corpse. By the way, do you know when Bohemian Rhapsody's home release is scheduled for Japan?


Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:48 am
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Angels & Demons

Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:20 am
Posts: 274
Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
https://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2 ... an/.141083

The Dragon Ball Super: Broly anime film sold more than 1 million tickets in Japan as of Wednesday, six days after the film opened on December 14. The film has now earned more than 1.3 billion yen (about US$11.6 million).


Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:38 am
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Angels & Demons

Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:20 am
Posts: 274
Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
So does the percentage share on that Mimorin change or something?

Because on Friday at 12am it was at 110,000 and it actually did 185,000 so that would account for 59.5%.

For the Weekend combined it was at 407,000 and it actually did 639,000 which would be 63.9%.

And now for Monday to Wednesday combined it was at 96,000 but it's apparently done an extra 187,000 so that's 51.4%.

So this theatre share doesnt seem to be fixed.


Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:37 am
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