In, unfortunately

Yup, Matrix Reloaded/Revolutions...Lego Batman/Ninjago. You could argue that Solo is not part of the new trilogy, which COULD negate the closeness. But it is still a Star Wars movie, so...probably isn't good scheduling.

That's actually a really good point and something I never thought of before. I'm still out, but depending on how good or bad that next trailer is I might end up joining this.

Didn't we all already consider that? Maybe not with that exact wording, but we have all been saying for a while that a Star Wars flick every year will be too much, and since they moved it to the summer after the SW winter release, it is crazily close. We are already seeing the signs of franchise fatigue. Who is feeling the hype and buzz for Solo? Anyone you know? I've not seen one person mention it outside of this forum. Could I have said for the same for The Force Awakens or Rogue One? Nope. Especially the former. I've not even seen one person share the trailer. Just...nobody cares.

^ Most of us were assuming there will be a new SW movie every December but the switch with Solo is not timed well. Its in May, they could still open it in August (which would still be an ideal date for it) and have good distance between this as Episode IX (I am assuming here that the shift is to give more time between SW movies specially with the finale of main trilogy). There is just not enough time between TLJ and Solo in release which is where my concern lies. RO finished its run on May 4 and I think TLJ follows the same path, after this most die-hards will catch it on home media and that's not even a month's time between two movies.

The competition and market conditions come secondary but its the release pattern itself that is blocking its potential.

Avengers just moved up a week, which is going to help this. I wonder if Deadpool will move up a week too. I might make it a under $110m OW club if Deadpool moves too. I'll wait and see.

Don't back out now, Barrabás, you pussy.

At least Rogue One came a full year after TFA. Not in yet, though. 3 blockbusters have opened to 100+ million in May before, and that was a good 11 years ago. Now that IW is opening earlier, it really gives Solo more breathing room for the family audience. Star Wars is a great alternative to the superhero blockbuster, just like Crystal Skulls and the Jurassic World's are. This is the first huge adventure flick since Jumanji, so I think Solo has a few things going for it to counter franchise fatigue. But of course, people might just opt to wait for the new Jurassic World. Even using the Ninjago dropoff example, Solo would still make about 83 million 3-day. So if we're talking just 3-day, I'd be in. For 4-day, still too close to call, IMO. The dropoff can definitely be bigger than that, though, if trailer reaction is as muted as most seem to suggest.

I'm not. I still see under $100m, maybe under $90m. The trailer views are so shocking, it's less than a third of what Days of Future Past and Godzilla had in 2014, and those two adjust to $100m OW. I was thinking the move could help but ehh, probably not. Thinking about it more, what the last year has taught is that people will not go out to see something just because there's little competition.

This thread is 3-day, not 4-day.

Sorry for not making that clear LOL.

OK then, guess I'm in

Deadpool isn't moving IMO. Its in a great spot where the drop could easily be mitigated by the holiday weekend. Its Solo that should move to August and increase its potential.

Agree that Solo should move to August but its unlikely to happen now.

^ That's what I am banking on as but clearly there are signs that it won't do great and the factors aren't in its favor but I just feel that SW fanbase will see this 10 times over the weekend and get it past the mark.

It wont do sub $100m OW. Yes overall it will be a disappointment for a SW film but it wont go that low.

Even with DP2 out a week before, it still the sole Memorial Day opener and its second weekend lacks any real competition so it will eek out a respectable OW and overall gross.

This is predicated on the film being solid and not terrible offcourse.

I wonder what would happen if it has great reviews but divisive WoM among GA like TLJ. With a $100m OW how low will it go? sub-$250m?

It would need less than around $88m to go sub-$250m if it behaved exactly like The Last Jedi. The divisive reviews are almost a given at this point. Having said that, I feel expectations are at an all-time low for a Star Wars flick, so people might be pleasantly surprised by just how not awful it is.

Yes but TLJ got a better multiplier because of holidays. While Solo would also be helped by summer weekdays the boost is surely not as big as December. And I agree, the expectations will be so low that people will be please regardless.

If Deadpool moves then Solo should move back a week.

In. Likely bad buzz and this film opening in May just feels wrong

Before the recent trilogy May has been a good spot for SW movies so I don't think its "feels wrong" or out of place. With a good looking product this month could still easily produce HUGE numbers for SW.

Yes May certainly isn't wrong in any sense.

Just like Marvel films have always anchored May but have been successes all year round.

Agreed on that SW is the type of franchise that can produce HUGE results no matter the release date aka see the December obliteration from previous record.