Too me it really just seems to be between it and The Revenant for most categories.

I could see it win

Picture
Director
Editing
Production Design
Visual Effects
Cinematography
Costume Design
Makeup
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

For a total of 10 wins. If it doesn't win all of these categories, it will be because the Revenant won them.

Between Mad Max and Mad Max?

Whoops, I meant the Revenant.

I feel like cinematography is locked up. No one seems really bothered by the idea of giving Lubezki his third Oscar in a row, which in itself is a remarkable lack of backlash especially considering Deakins.

10 is asking for a lot. Complete sweeps are extraordinarily rare at the Oscars. Modern day it's only happened twice I think, six times total going back to the 30s. Even a film that absolutely obliterates its competition like Titanic or Slumdog Millionaire loses here and there.

Some voters some where within the AMPAS are simply not going to vote for a 4th sequel in a post-apocalyptic franchise that features mutants and giant lactating women, regardless of the quality of the craft.

I'm not predicting it will win all of them, but I think it could be close. I see 8 wins definitely. The only ones I feel less certain about are costumes and Makeup, which I suppose could go to The Revenant.

You should definitely feel less certain about Cinematography.

I think Mad Max is probably 4th or 5th in that category.

It's weird, because The Revenant is certainly the more traditional winner, but I just son't think innaritu will win twice in a row. Spotlight just seems to be losing major steam as well.

Max will just get tech wins.

So 8 wins.

I didn't say ALL the tech wins.

So 4-6 wins.

More like 1-8 wins.

Dunno. It seems to have more hype than Spotlight and The Big Short. The only nominee I see ahead of it is The Revenant, but I doubt the Academy will award Innaritu twice in a row. At worst, I see a picture director split with Miller winning director and Revenant winning Picture.

It ain't winning BP or BD. The highest praise it can hope for is Cinematography or Editing.

You really have some guts to say something like that. For me the cinematography of The Revenant is far beyond amazing. I think Lubezki is going to get his third one in a row. I see better chances for Mad Max in the categories for Editing and Sound Editing / Mixing.

I agree with the Zwack!

If Max sweeps the techs it will win BD BP. If the Rev takes them the it will take it. Now if they split the techs the divider is Leo and he will push Alejandro to BD and the BP win.

Old age make-up has been awarded in the past so the Hundred year old man yada yada yada winning that category would not surprise me

Locked in The Revenant's favour. Lubezki has a death grip on that Oscar.

What's Lubezki's next film?

HA! I was literally just looking it up on IMDB. Bunch of Malick nonsense.

Okay, he ain't winning for that. Though his cinematography was the best thing about Malick's last two films.

But he will win more Oscars in his career. HeÄs great. However, unlike Deakins, his style is very very similar every single time, from The New World over Children of Men and Birdman to The Revenant.

Maybe Deakins will win that lifetime achievement Oscar for Hail, Caesar! 5 of this 11,000 Oscar nominations are for Coen films. And Hail Caesar at least looks great visually.