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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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 Re: SW7 Monday predictions Weekend sellout will push business to Monday. Record breaking openers always hold well on Monday.
44.5m
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| Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:10 pm |
 
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12197
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions A number of people still have to work on Monday so I'm going to be more low balling it and see low $30's.
$33.4 m
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| Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:15 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40594
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions O wrote: A number of people still have to work on Monday so I'm going to be more low balling it and see low $30's.
$33.4 m Yeah 40 mil would mean Avatar's Monday drop, I don't think that's realistic. Under 35 million _________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:21 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm
Posts: 8942
Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions 39.6, but I'm hoping for $40M+.
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| Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:23 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions mdana wrote: I must be missing something, because to me it looks like a hybrid of DH2 and Avatar. The holiday and extended previews are messing with people's perceptions of what is real and holiday artifact.  Of course, an easy a counter argument is that these were easily the strongest of any pre-Christmas that I can recall. But we've seen with SM1, TDK, and The Avengers that films with record breaking Sundays don't slow down on Monday. So even if the average decline is closer to 45-50%, it's still possible TFA could hit $40M today.
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| Mon Dec 21, 2015 7:08 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3225
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions Line on a Monday 
_________________
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I was blind, but now I see.
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| Mon Dec 21, 2015 7:12 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-f ... 201670879/Quote: It’s not going to stop. After breaking the weekend, opening day, Sunday, and Thursday night records Star Wars: The Force Awakens is looking at taking the Monday title with $30M-plus per non Disney analysts. Afternoon figures for Episode VII are strong ranging in the $17M-$22M range.
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| Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:20 pm |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
Posts: 3004
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions mdana wrote: $40m ain't happening. I don't think it is really possible, but maybe I was too flippant in my first impression. The afternoons we're really strong maybe off 40-45%, the nights look to be off 25-30%. I have family and don't have access to a spreadsheet to get better info. I am just doing calculations in my head and eyeballing crowd reports I can access. This is not an original film. It has not done as well as Avatar once on Saturday nor Sunday in terms of previous day's increase or decrease. SWTFA was able to bounce back better than DH2, because it's previews were spread over 12 hrs. and 2 days. My projection is it drops harder through M-Th than Avatar and softer than DH2 both did in their respective runs.
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| Mon Dec 21, 2015 9:04 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions Gitesh says 35-37
_________________The Dark Prince 
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:03 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions $35m-$37m sounds about right. Its Monday will be in the Top 25 December OW's.. INSANE.
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:17 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13056
Location: Augsburg (2,040 years young)
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions Little trivia: With Monday numbers Universal and Disney are responsible for the 6 biggest movies of the year (3 each)
_________________
Nothing Compares 2 U
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:43 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12197
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions Additional trivia, this will be the first time since Paramount did it in 1983 that a studio gets 3 out of the top 4 films of the year. Fox had "SWEp.6" lead the year but Paramount had Terms of Endearment, Flashdance and Trading Places at #2, #3, and #4.
Funny how history is repeating itself, but this time Disney is leading with SWEp. 7, Universal with JW, then Avengers 2 and Inside Out.
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:59 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions ^ Also while WB did have AS this year their biggest calendar release is San Andreas and Mad Max both sitting at the edge of Top 20. They don't even have a single $200m grosser, last time this happened was in the year 2000 (15 years back) and it was still in Top 10. The last time they were not in Top 10 was 1996 and the movies were just at #11 and #12. Since BOM tracking of 1980 this will be the first time that a calendar release for WB is not even in Top 15 movies (1986 came closest with #15 movie).
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:03 am |
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m051293
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:34 am
Posts: 543
Location: DC Metropolitan
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:53 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 19444
Location: San Diego
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:55 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions Given many other films from that Avatar Monday had similar holds, I don't think $40m was unrealistic. Could be looking at a $150m second weekend?
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:06 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 19444
Location: San Diego
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions If it is indeed 40 Tuesday and non opening Wednesday records going down. Jesus.
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:08 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions Its really doesn't seem to be frontloaded. Wow!!
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:09 am |
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m051293
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:34 am
Posts: 543
Location: DC Metropolitan
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions xiayun wrote: Given many other films from that Avatar Monday had similar holds, I don't think $40m was unrealistic. Could be looking at a $150m second weekend? Seems par for the course. When the 100M presales figure was reported last Monday/Tuesday(?), Christmas Day was #3 ITO presales (Thursday/Friday ahead). I read that CBS reported 139M in presales on Thursday (haven't looked for source). Consider that Christmas Day has now had 4 days to continue to build on presales and has another 3-4 to go. I think that and the 40M figure today point to mid 50s for Friday (Avatar 1st Monday -> 2nd Friday was +40%, which would be 55-58M for this depending on what the Monday actual is). That would be on track for a 155-165M weekend. Crazy thing is, how high will next Monday go?
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:12 am |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions This is absolutely ridiculous. I haven't seen a run like this in my lifetime.
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:14 am |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions _________________The Dark Prince
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:18 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions Even conservatively, I'm seeing this:
By the end of weekend 2: 248+40+37+35+20+42+50+42 = 514 (for a Christmas weekend of 134)
By the end of weekend 3: 514+30+27+27+21+35+35+23 = 712 (for a New Year weekend of 93)
By the end of weekend 4: 712+10+9+8+7+15+25+17 = 803 (for a 4th weekend of 57)
$1b is happening folks.
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:19 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23386
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions lol - it probably has a shot at Doctor Zhivago and Jaws adjusted....
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:24 am |
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m051293
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2011 2:34 am
Posts: 543
Location: DC Metropolitan
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions Titanic first run of 128M tickets. TFA did 28% 3D/12% IMAX/7% PLF this weekend. At about $1.3B it would match Titanic. If the shares decline (which they usually do for post-Avatar 3D films, plus it'll lose IMAX/3D screens eventually), might do it at 1.25-1.27B. Not saying its happening, just putting it out there for reference. Just in case.  
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:31 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: SW7 Monday predictions OMG, YES!
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:32 am |
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