With the fanbase, I'm certain it will be much higher than Avengers 2. I doubt it will be as frontloaded as Harry Potter, but the prequels became dramatically more frontloaded over time. Also December can deflate the opening, but it should deflate opening day less with the fans, so that could result in a greater Sat drop than would be the case in other months.

What do you say?

Out. I see 25% or less. It will have decent legs throughout the holidays. Only the fanboys will rush out to see it. It has families as well as more casual audiences that will wait for Christmas or after.

Maybe in May. No way in December.

A more interesting club would be what % of it's OD the sneaks/midnights make, which will be huge.

I could see 30 million midnights for a 60 million opening day ala Potter followed by a big bump on Saturday to say, 40 million, then down to 30 or so on Sunday, for example.

I don't see this beating Hobbit's December OW record in a day...not possible and its NOT dropping 45% on its first Saturday even with frontloading.

100-55-50 would have it miss the record. So out.

Missing the record is a given duh. It won't get within 75 million of it.

Out.

Hell No! seriously dude

So, like I said, the Dec. won't help it hold OW. The effect will kick in on the weekdays and into the second week.

I don't think it will drop more than 25% on Sunday, so it probably needs a weekend over 240m to avoid a 45% drop Sat.

In now.

zwackerms and Excels last hope...

out

I don't think there has ever been a drop from previews to Friday. I'm not sure if that would hurt its chances or help it. Depends on how much the frontloading means for Sat.

It's not dropping from previews.

I think a 45+% drop is going to probably necessitate a minimal increase or even a slight drop from Friday business. Which is possible, but has become very uncommon since the Aurora shooting.

Looks like it'll be a close call.

$130?!? Holy crap! I thought I was being pessimistic when I thought a few months back this would "only" hit $170-190 on account of it being December

It's not even gonna be close, could beat it by nearly 50-60% more. Absolutely insane.

So, it needs about 66.3m. This can be close.

I know you've eaten enough crow, but I had forgotten all about this.

DHD is saying 5% drop minus previews and 50% drop with previews. So this club is on.

I know its just insane how frontloaded this franchise is overall.

That is just projection but yeah given the HEAVY preview number 45% doesn't seem like a big drop. Previews made 45% of the Friday business.

43% est.

Well, that was interesting. Probably will be confirmed by actuals, but it may be even closer.

Well that depends on how you look at it: is it frontloaded because of previews, or did it get those previews because it is frontloaded? But yeah, this club was based on the idea of huge previews.

It's over, man. If anything, the trend seems to be for a mega opener's Friday to be overestimated by a million or so.

Sometimes when Sunday is underestimated, Saturday is overestimated.