Yep, I am banking on that. Furious 7 will probably finish just slightly ahead of The Avengers worldwide, with around $1.52 billion. Age of Ultron probably won't get more than $1.4-1.45 billion. I don't think The Force Awakens will hit $1.5 billion. Looking at 2016, I don't really see a single $1.5 billion grosser. 2017 Furious 8 and Star Wars Episode VIII will have a shot, but I think both will slightly miss and, well, by the end of 2017 Avatar 2 will get there. Even if it drops everywhere, it will still be good for $1.5+ billion worldwide without breaking a sweat.

Kind of insane, yes, but I think Furious 7 will be the 3rd-highest-grossing movie worldwide for a couple of years.

And even IF Star Wars dethrones it worldwide, I am absolutely positive that it will not beat its overseas gross of almost $1.2 billion.

Both Star Wars and BVS will do it. Star Wars overseas gross will be R.I.D.I.C.U.L.O.U.S. even if it's domestic gross isn't.

Star Wars has always been more of a domestic thing.

And BvsS? Oh just STFU.

With China's market growth, I honestly wouldn't bet on this.

Biggest INTL grosses of all-time 1999:

1) $1,243m Titanic
2) $563m Jurassic Park
3) $511m Independence Day
4) $495m Phantom Menace

Doesn't look that domestic to me...

Risky. Good thread. I agree. And I don't think Avatar 2 will do it either.

Of course it CAN and Star Wars CAN. This is why it is a prediction. I am not clairvoyant. Furious 8 will fall short because the franchise will have peaked with the seventh, unless Vin Diesel dies shortly before the release of the 8th.

Also, of course Star Wars was big overseas too. But see, neither TPM nor ROTS was in the all-time Top 3 overseas. Furious 7 is. Do you also believe that it will outgross its $1.17 billion overseas total?

Because Furious 7 grossed so much, people think that all bigger franchise titles will now gross this level or more. But that's not the case.....see: Age of Ultron.

INN. SW7 is overestimated. Just look at where Sith was. It was not a uber blockbuster back in 2005. So I dont see SW7 doing 1B OS. it would be lucky to hit something like 700-800OS. Its strongest markets will be more traditional rather than fast growing asia/latin american markets.

Fast 8 could be the only movie which could beat it but I am expecting it to drop in developed markets. China will do great but not sure that would be enough for it to beat F7 unless exchange rate skews in its favor.

Fast 8 has no chance. It only did so well this time because of Walker's death. Unless Statham, The Rock, or Vin Diesel die, it ain't beating 7.

Completely NOT IN! This is an unrealistic club as all the trends show increasing growth of international markets making this very unlikely. Also, it's not at all consistent with data that we've seen the last 5.5 years. A growing number of the $1 B + films have been surprises of a 30%+ upside in terms of even the loftiest of expectations.

21 total 1 B movies

2009: Avatar $2.788 B (Surpassed expectations by probably $1 B +)
2010: Alice $1.025 B (Completely surpassed expectations by probably $500 m+)
2012: Skyfall $1.109 B (Completely surpassed expectations by at least $300 m+)
2012: Avengers $1.519 B (Surpassed expectations by at least $200 m+)
2013: Frozen $1.274 B (Completely surpassed expectations by at least $600 m+)
2015: Furious 7 $1.5 B+ (Completely surpassed expectations by at least $500 m+)

Out of the 9 films that have done $1.1 B+ since Avatar was released, I'd argue that 4/9 (Fast 7, Avengers, Frozen, Skyfall) massively surpassed expecations by miles. The "tentpole" other five (Iron Man 3, HP7 Pt. 2, Avengers 2, Transformers 3/4) it was expected but its hard not to expect a similar pattern of massively overperforming out of nowhere hits, because we've seen that a lot lately.

It took three years for The Avengers to be (barely) beaten worldwide. I expect Furious 7 to be beaten in 2.5 years by Avatar 2. Not that unrealistic. This is all under the assumption that Avatar 2 hits in 2017.

See, after Furious 7 everyone expected Age of Ultron to completely crush all records overseas, but fact is, it is crawling to $1 billion and might not make it. Three years after the first film and after the MASSIVE growth of China, it still won't beat its predecessor by more than $120 milion OS. I expect A LOT of movies to land in the $1.1-1.4 billion worldwide range over the next two years, but $1.5 billion is still a major milestone not easily passed. If it happens before Avatar 2, it will be Star Wars only.

I expect Furious 8 to drop to around $300 million domestically and to $900-950 million overseas.

Every major prediction we make though, we can more or less add a +/- of $500 m range for tentpoles as we've seen that a lot over the past 5 years. We're seeing more and more surprise $1 B + movies. I have a tough time not seeing a 1.5 B movie for 2.5 more years.

See, since The Avengers, there has not only been no other $1.5 billion films, but not even a SINGLE $1.3+ billion. I agree, times are changing, which is over the next 2.5 years we will see several $1.3+ billion grossers and one or two $1.4+ billion grossers. That is growth already, but it's not like over the last three years anything came even close to The Avengers. It will also have to bee a movie that will do smashing business domestically. Transformers 5 might explode in China and make $1 bilion overseas, but it will still not make more than $250 million domestically. Same goes for the next Pirates. Really, there are not all that many contenders. Basically this thread is about Star Wars vs. Furious 7, I don't think much else looks to have a real shot. Even if films like X-Men: Apocalypse or Batman v. Superman or Captain America: Civil War will have huge increases over their predecessors, they will still land well behind $1.5 billion.

SW7 and BVS will do this. This is a stupid thread though I like the balls

Said the guy who predicted Black Mass to open to 55 million.

Well lets be honest, we're all responsible for some pretty horrible predictions over the years.

Ballsy but I do think SW7 will get there.

In the end the key will be China and Japan. Not sure how the other SW films did there. Currency exchange will also impact.

I'm quite certain Furious 8 will dip from 7.

How many movies have beaten The Avengers' "puny" overseas gross since its release?

Yeah I'm sold (was too lazy to check). Yeah - North America will kick in at least $500m - so its certainly not a big ask for this HUGELY anticipated SW film (being released in the 2015 market place not 1999 or even 2005) to make over $1.1b overseas.

Also, some of you act like it is such a no-brainer, but most don't predict Star Wars to beat F7 by more than $100 million, right? It's not like you expect $2 billion for it (unless you are BJ or excel)

$2B doesn't seem so crazy. Star Wars' return to glory is something the entire world will get behind.

That shouldn't take away from Furious though. Beating Avengers is winning the Superbowl ten times in a row. It's hard to believe really.

You really overestimate just how many people still give a shit about Star Wars.