Given the example from a few years back, that is actually in his favor. Think Benh Zeitlin....

Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Ava DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

A volatile category.

Why is Jolie being thrown around? Her past effort was really bad. Unless she's improved 1000x she's not getting in.

In the Land of Blood and Honey was a fantastic movie.

You forgot to add "for a woman to make".

In the Land of Blood and Honey is definitely hugely undervalued. Very moving and visceral and well-shot.

So look to me it's down to 6-for-5 spot with Linklater/Inarritu/Fincher/Anderson/Tyldum/DuVernay, while Chazelle could be a dark horse contender.

I would love to see Wes Anderson get in.

I believe Anderson is in, as much as I don't want it to happen. In fact, I think the Top 3 is:

1. Linklater
2. Iñarritu
3. Anderson

The remaining two spots will be between Chazelle, Tyldum, Fincher and DuVernay, as xiayun has said and I believe that at this moment Fincher and DuVernay are most likely.

I do not believe Morten Tyldum will miss, even though I do not myself consider him worthy of a nomination.

I dunno. Though the relevant precursors are yet to come, he has not fared well so far. No GG nom, no BFCA nom.

I'd put James Marsh in the mix as well since a case can be made The Theory of Everything is in the top 5 right now and ahead of stuff like Gone Girl and Whiplash

Nah, not a name.

Lol, Marsh is not appearing ANYWHERE.

Yeah, The Imitation Game has only fared averagely so far, not surprising given its critics grades, but it does mean it has almost no shot at winning BD, thus making a BP win less likely as well. The ranking order at this point, IMO, would be Boyhood > Selma > Birdman > Budapest > ...

with what happened to The Interview, and to a lesser extent The Fappening earlier this year, hollywood surely now has a big distaste for hackers and their influential power.

since The Imitation Game is a timely movie pretty much celebrating world's first hacker, I think it will hurt it significantly vote-wise and Hollywood can't help but have negative real-world associations against a movie where a state-sponsored hacking project to bring down another state, enough to overpower any positive identification (British/Jew/gay/elitist/tech dept/Etc.) they may otherwise feel towards the movie

hence Tyldum will miss

You are being...satirical, right?

Now Eastwood is looking stronger each day, this is becoming a really exciting category. I'm actually now leaning toward a Linklater/Inarritu/Anderson/Fincher/Eastwood final 5.

as long as Selma is nominated, so will be DuVernay. Too good of an opportunity to write history.

this is still like a 8 candidate race for the final 3 spots. this category has a history of so many left field nominations that even someone like Jean-Luc Godard (Goodbye to Language) could get a shocking nomination.

This has to be the most difficult to predict of all of the awards.

First of all, Jean Luc Godard cannot be nominated because the film is ineligible. Secondly, this is so competitive, I can't even predict beyond Linklater,Iñárritu and Anderson. I can see Tyldum, DuVernay, Fincher, Marsh, Gilroy, Chazelle, Eastwood. But everything has been so weird this year, anything could happen in this category. This category could be more eventful than when Bigelow and Affleck were snubbed.

Not really because the last spots are so open now that hardly anyone of those would really be a surprise, whereas Affleck and Bigelow seemed set. The only way to be more eventful would be for Iñárritu and Linklater to be snubbed.

Might not be surprising, but the anything-could-happen dynamic still makes this quite exciting.

Even though he is neither the flashiest nor the most iconic choice, I still believe Morten Tyldum will muscle his way in over, say, Eastwood and Fincher.

I believe it will be him, Damien Chazelle, and the expected trio of W. Anderson, González Iñárritu, and Linklater.