Rosamund Pike should be in, dunno about Affleck.

Yeah. So what's left that could be a contender, but has no reviews yet? American Sniper, Unbroken, Interstellar, Inherent Vice, Into the Woods (I guess?), Selma, The Gambler... anything else?

Maybe Exodus: Gods and Kings and Big Eyes?

I think Rosamund Pike is in and Gone Girl will win atleast one oscar. Fincher's last three lead actors got nods.

Anybody think there is a chance for Hobbit to squeak in for a BP nom? I certainly don't think it would win, but the movie looks pretty epic from the teaser.

LOL, no. But Algren will probably say "yes".

First reviews for Inherent Vice are in. Apparently it is too wild, too funny and too all-over-the-place for the Oscars. But it is supposedly pretty good. I read "L.A. Confidential reqritten as a stoner comedy" and "PTA's The Big Lebowski". No Oscars there then. Maybe a few noms, for the screenplay and, if there not much competitiin, for the film.

Yeah, no Oscars

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/inherent_vice/

40% but there's 3 fresh and 3 negative? lol

I still can't believe The Master got over 80%.

I know someone who saw it tonight and he is certain that the rating will improve. He says it won't be a hit at the Oscars by any means but it will be fresh. Who knows though, he did give it a 5/5 rating.

On the flipside:

http://www.metacritic.com/movie/inheren ... ic-reviews

RT is at 74% now.

Insterstellar reviews are coming in. The early batch has been merely good, not BP winner worthy though.

Maybe its just that type of year with no big frontrunner, but with 10 nods I can see a slight chance at something random like Lego Movie getting a best picture nomination.

Also, if Gravity came out this year it could have won best picture.

Why did Gravity and Frozen seem to have so many internet haters?

because they sucked

You suck.

Hope to see The Imitation Game later today, but sight unseen this feels like the most overwhelming lock for Best Picture winner since Schindler's list

If there is an algorithm for getting the votes needed for an Oscar BP winner, this captures all of them:

British vote - check
LGBT vote -check
Tech vote (for one of their pioneers) - check
Old people (who lived through that time) - check
War movie voters - check
Biopic voters - check
"Difficult" accomplished directors/artists who have to lead a crew - check
People who vote based solely on Weinstein campaigning - check

Its reviews are really low for a Best Picture winner though. Its average on MC is a 67 with its highest score being an 80 (10 reviews). That's the major difference between it and the King's Speech right now. TKS still had elite reviews, just not quite as elite as The Social Network.

I think Boyhood is the heavy frontrunner personally. It has a nice little film that could narrative, Linklater getting rewarded feels right and everyone seems to love it.

Yeah saw the film yesterday, the movie was decent but not outstanding. I'd give it a B.

Forgot to include:
Jewish vote (anti-Hitler)

If voters rank their votes on what's their favorite film, then this is unlikely to win. But if they put their favorite movie #1, and then put this high on their ranking based on group identification rather than using their own opinions for the entire ranked list, then this could win based on overall consensus of gaining votes as each movie gets eliminated.

Selma and American Sniper both premiered at AFI last night and are getting great notices. Selma moreso than American Sniper, which is largely receiving praise for Bradley Cooper. Hmm. Selma certainly has the "important" vibe of many Best Picture winners.

Yes, Selma seems very strong. Film-industry media types are already starting the, "First woman of color to receive a Best Director nomination" conversation.

Yeah the first set of reviews are magnificent: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/selma_2014/.

Well, that's sealed it then.

When was the last time the Academy awarded Best Picture to two such similarly themed films 2 years in a row? Cuz it looks like that might happen this year.