Another year, another list.

The record still belongs to 2009 but it will soon be held by 2013. The mark to reach is undetermined at this point since there are few movies running for $100m+ but at the minimum it will be atleast 33 movies to equal the record.

This year again I will put up what I feel are locks in the list. We can discuss and change the list.
Locks:
The Lego Movie
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Noah
300: Rise of an Empire
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Rio 2
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Godzilla
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Maleficent
22 Jump Street
How To Train Your Dragon 2
Transformers: Age of Extinction
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Big Hero 6
Interstellar
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1
Home (2014)
Horrible Bosses 2
The Hobbit: There and Back Again
Night at the Museum 3
Total : 22

Candidates:
The Monuments Men
Son of God
Need for Speed
Divergent
Muppets Most Wanted
Draft Day
St. Vincent
Transcendence
The Other Woman (2014)
Chef
Neighbors
Million Dollar Arm
Blended
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Edge of Tomorrow
Tammy
Deliver Us From Evil
Jupiter Ascending
Planes: Fire and Rescue
Hercules (2014)
Sex Tape
Lucy
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014)
The Expendables 3
The Giver
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For
Dolphin Tale 2
The Maze Runner
The Boxtrolls
The Equalizer
Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
The Judge
Gone Girl
Book of Life
Paranormal Activity 5
Dumb and Dumber To
Exodus
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Total : 39

I just put the ones I thought are locks for $100m+ we can discuss and change the list.

Since when is Need for Speed a candidate? It will likely make less than $15m.

I love these threads of Sparrow's. Gives me a good chuckle. Like how Mr. Peabody & Sherman and 300: Rise of an Empire are "locks" but Edge of Tomorrow isn't.

I would be very surprised if Divergent, Neighbors, and Dumb and Dumber 2 do not each make 100M.

Algren can't read.

You have reading problems, you sad little child.

You also don't know what a child is, I guess.

Maybe I'll mail you a dictionary.

Well, you act like one, so it's an easy mistake to make.

I would put Muppets Most Wanted as a candidate.

I was on very edge for these and Edge of Tomorrow to put them in locks list but there have been cases where similar movies missed the mark. I thought they would be better as candidates.

I will add Muppets as a candidate but I don't see this making it when the previous one failed to do so.

is The Lego Movie really a lock? idk

Noah is definitely not a lock, especially if its shunned by religious folks.

I think Noah will make 100 million. It has a great release date, and I don't think it will be that shunned by religious groups.

Noah doesn't need to be seen by religious groups to make $100m. Lego will be the biggest animation movie since Frozen, the previews have been good. It is REACHING $100m.

Why would religious groups shun one of the most famous Biblical stories on the big screen? Correct me if I'm wrong, but surely this is right up their alley?

Noah has screened badly and its plot was compared to a climate change disaster movie rather than a Biblical fable: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... a-backlash

Anyway, it could do well. But it's not a lock in my eyes.

Noah is a big dark horse. Either it goes sub-100M or it challenges Captain America.

Nowhere does it say that.

I see these getting to $100 m:

Jan-Apr (9)
Lego
300
Mr Sherman
Divergent
Noah
CA2
Rio2 (will be massive overseas I think leading into the World Cup, could see a lot of tie ins)
Transcendence
The Other Woman

May - Aug (12)
Spidy 2
Godzilla
Blended
Xmen
Maleficent
22 Jump Street
Dragon 2
Think Like a Man Too
Transformers 4
Tammy
Apes
Guardians

Sep-Dec (10)
Big Hero 6
Interstellar
Dumb and Dumber To
HG3
Home
HB2
Exodus
Hobbit 3
NATM3
Into the Woods

I have 31 right now, but probably missed a bunch. I'll have to look at the calendar a bit more.

I don't see all of these being pure locks. I could easily see all of these failing in some scenarios. Which doesn't mean they're not very likely to cross $100m, but they're not a lock IMHO.




I don't like this way of splitting movie into locks and candidates. Obviously there are abosfuckinglutely locks then there are those 75-99% movies that can be considered locks. Then there are others. But some of the ones mentioned don't have even a shot IMHO.

This happens every year. I believe its fine. If you have a specific movie that you think won't do $100m then let me know. We can discuss and remove it.

I don't think Million Ways to Die is a long shot. It is by Seth Macfarlane, whose last film about a talking teddy bear made over 200 million dollars. It should be listed as candidate because of him. And I find it funny you eliminated most of the movies on his list. If it went that way 2014 will have a really bad year.

Be.redy is a LM, 'nuf said.

See, when Sparrow makes a prediction (his list in the OP) without copying the collective input of WOKJ users, his prediction is usually shite.

Agree. There are a bajillion direct to video/demand Lego films. This is not a lock. It may make it (I doubt it) but it will be close at best.