True but the competition won't disappoint this time.

Hmm yes on paper the competition is too big but the biggest competition after its release arrives at a long weekend which also happens to be one of the biggest weekends for movie-going. It still can do great. Also you have to remember IM3 also has Star Trek after 2 weeks, there is a lot of demograph spillover for sure.

Both FF6 and Hangover open after two of the biggest blockbusters of the summer and then have to compete with After Earth and MoS.

MoS on the other hand would be coming off a hugely satisfied males and families to a certain extent with IM3 and Epic. It also has good competition after its release.

So I don't see how opening between two blockbusters is bad for Star Trek if it opens as big as you are predicting.

I'm going to go with Iron Man 3. I think the second best chance, based on the reaction to the newest trailer, is Man of Steel.

Star Trek Into Darkness, Despicable Me 2, Monsters University (in that order of likeliness) have a fair chance at opening to 100M+.

Fast Six will open to 100M+ over 4 days.
Hangover III has a chance to open to 100M+ over 4 days.

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stori ... is-the-end

BO just added MAN OF STEEL with a $108m opening weekend in its long range forecast...

That might be a good projection if this were 2008 and the film was not in 3D

150m+

BO always adjusts its long range forecasts, so who knows what their final forecast will be...

Iron Man 3.

Even with a 60 or so million opening day it should go to around 150 million opening weekend.

60
53
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The obvious answer is IM3... But so was TDKR last year.

So who the hell knows.

Last year was a special case ^^^

TA was massively underperdicted on here and we all got in a collective circle jerk about TDKR.

If we looked at the films for what they were I think we would have realized just how appealing TA was to all audiences unlike TDKR.

But even if you looked at it like that at the beginning of the year, you still would say TDKR.

After watching the third Man of Steel trailer, I wouldn't be too surprised if it comes out on top. Interest will be sky-high when it's getting released. Or I'm just biased now because that trailer was so damn great.

Man of Steel - 162
Iron Man 3 - 156

I thought all the Man of Steel trailers were great too but let's be rational about this. Iron Man 3 is the finale in the trilogy whereas Man of Steel is a working reboot.

Iron Man 3 - 175m
Man of Steel - 140m

I suppose it all depends on how people think.

Are they going on the WOM from IM2... or The Avengers? The reason we thought TDKR was going to be monstrous was because of the WOM from TDK. The reason SM3 opened huge was because of the WOM from SM2, right?

Maybe IM3 will "disappoint" on OW and only makes $130-140 mil. Can Star Trek or MoS beat that?

What happens if AMC and Regal don't reach an agreement with Disney in time for OW? May 3 is getting closer and closer and I'm getting kind of worried at the prospect of IM3 not playing in the two largest chains on its first weekend (or possibly even the three largest - Cinemark's not preselling tickets either). I even pre-ordered a ticket at an independent venue just as a back-up.

Then again, as I said before, I'd like to see what the lines will look like on OW if the deal is settled in time for it to play the weekend, but not in time for presales.

Iron Man 3 is just two weeks away but it still feels like Man of Steel is the more anticipated, talked about one. I think interest will explode to unknown levels the last one or two weeks before it gets released, much like Hunger Games.

Iron Man 3 of course could still win this. It looks damn good and feels more like a sequel to Avengers, which can only help.

People should not overstimate any film, (me included) and a better example of it, it's not TDKR vs TA battle last year, the real one was when IM 2 was released in 2010; most people said and stated it would break TDK OW record and also their predictions came from 450m to 500m making it the biggest movie of the year.

However, at this time 3 years ago no one would have thought that TS3 was gonna be the biggest and highest grossing film domestic and WW, so Chippy is right at saying "who the hell knows"

Still, I say Iron Man 3 will have the biggest OW, but MOS and MU are candidates to be able to outgross any film in BO total

They already reached an agreement, so everything is fine

Ah yes! We can't forget about MU. It could explode.

Early WOM from pre screenings indicates that it has big chances

News to me. What's your source? Everything I've read, up to today, says there's still no agreement. Yes, Disney and Carmike settled, but this doesn't affect me in California. The Big 3 still seem to be holding out. They're still not listed on Fandango.

I'd love to have definitive confirmation that the dispute has been resolved, but so far the only person I've read who's said so is you.

Based on overseas results it appears the Avengers "x" factor has worked in increasing the box office gross from IM2...Appears the same will happen here.


I think in terms of opening there is no way MOS will open that high...

It could breakout and be the next Spider Man film but no way it will open to 150+ million like IM3.

MOS has hype but I would argue its the internet specfic hype... However I see MOS it crossing 300 million.


We thought TDKR was going to increase from TDK due to WOM...
However there is a clear historical trend that whenever a film reaches an all time gross like TDK did, the sequel never meet or beats it. I doubt TA 2 will go much past 600 million.

And there is a historical trend that if a sequel disappoints, a second sequel won't open above it.

But for some reason you are certain that IM3 will open $25+ mil higher than IM2.

Interesting, the # of YouTube views for the latest MOS trailer are already 4.7M higher than Iron Man's latest and the former hasn't even been out a full week yet.

Your assumptions are 100% right but there is an X factor here and that was TA and of course there is 3D and inflation.

The point will be whether it is an X factor or not but based on overseas results so far, I think the X factor exists.