True but with 3D and such it should have flown past a billion ^^^

Yes, there is no excuse for this movie to gross less than $1 billion worldwide.

It pains me to see these numbers. The past few weeks have seen a series of disappointing news from the critics reviews right to the numbers over the past 5 days. Perhaps ever since the original Cinemacon 48fps debacle, it was all downhill from there.

The only slight glimmer of positive news are the crowd receptions in some markets; hoping that this will translate into some fabulous legs over Christmas.

I had the exact same feeling and vibe leading up to this release much like King Kong, it just felt really flat. For a highly anticipated release and followup to one of the biggest franchise in movie history, this is just very disappointing. Even Pirates 4 broke out with some brilliant openings overseas.

The first trailer was done quite well; some dubious SFX aside, it had a good build up and strong music. The final trailer didn't take that anticipation anywhere. It even seemed that none were all too excited about it given the number of hits it received compared to other final trailers. It also lacked those truly WOW momments (that could also be the sound and the way they play with your emotions) which amps up your anticipation.

The posters leading up to the release were atrocious and disconnected. The character posters aside (can't go too wrong with these), the main hero posters weren't there. The one with all the dwarfs was a disaster, and in actual fact, to this day, we still don't know which one was the absolute final poster. FOTR, TTT, ROTK all had one, why not this? I'm not sure what Warner's plans were for this but the way they marketed this movie is just so bland and uninspired. I still haven't seen a damn poster/billboard in Melbourne, Australia just 1 week out from the release (this from the biggest movie franchise in Australia is just not acceptable).

Marketing aside, the low opening definately suggests underlying problems.

1) Audiences have moved on it seems. There's now been a flurry of fantasy blockbusters (many were not so good) so the freshness has been taken away and audience trepidation whether it's tonally, split into 3-films who knows.
2) It was released a bit earlier in December and families would wait a bit longer to time this with their availability....though that being said, the Saturday increase in the US does not suggest that this will be a truly family film in the same vein of an animated release. It's about on par with Narnia/Golden Compass (give or take midnights).
3) Negative publicity of HFR and critic reviews. Rotten Tomatoes score puts this in the same vein as Phantom Menace, good lord. Though unlike Phantom Menace, the buzz of The Hobbit is not even half of that.

The international openings are well below expectations. All the big markets dissapointed, especially UK/Germany/France/Korea/Spain/Mexico/Brazil. All about 3/5 of where I was hoping it would open to. Taking out 3D and inflation and it's pretty bad.

What pains me most is Japan, what a disaster and complete bomb. Not even $3m. This market is so vicious it's not funny - it can deliver gigantic grosses but like King Kong, it can also destroy. And to think that it also had it's Asian premiere in Japan.

Russia (and China with a reasonable release date) I still have hopes for considering the growth in that market and empty marketplace though i'm concerned about the Australian release. LOTRs all set Opening Day and weekend records when they opened there...this year seems more competitive with Les Mis and Wreck It Ralph among others sharing screens. Let's see where the NZ opening comes out as because that may be a good guide.

The opening in Sweden is promising and i'm sure Scandinvia in general though everything seems a far cry from when ROTK opened (excerpt from BOM):

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1286&p=.htm

Overseas alone, the end of Frodo's journey conquered the 28 territories it entered with a whopping $125.9 million on 7,403 screens in its first five days. By comparison, Two Towers pulled in $99.8 million out of the gate in 27 markets.

Return of the King shattered the opening day and weekend records in the United Kingdom ($25.9 million on 1,299 screens in five days), Germany ($22.6 million on 1,337), Spain ($10.0 million on 512), Sweden ($4.7 million on 169), Denmark ($3.9 million on 120) and Switzerland ($2.7 million on 134). In France, it nabbed the top honors for 2003, earning $14 million in five days on 975 screens. In New Zealand (a.k.a. Middle-earth), it notched not only opening day and weekend records, but also the biggest single day, Friday, Saturday and Sunday ever, reaching $1.7 million in four days on 114 screens. It also broke opening day records in Austria, Belgium, Chile, Finland, Greece, Holland, Mexico, Norway, Puerto Rico, and Switzerland.

Ah, if we can only relive such times. The only hope now is legs and let's hope the positive crowd reactions will truly translate. For what suppose to be a monster international performer, it looks to finish with a similar ratio to LOTRs (around the 60%), so no growth and no 3D boost overseas in the vein of HP7-2/TF3/Pirates4.

At the momment it's targeting $300-360m Domestic and $600-700m OS. $1billion looks shaky.....who would've though that The Hobbit would have so much trouble. I was pretty certain even before it's release that it'll at least defeat ROTK/TDKR. Unless there's a positive turn with legs...it'll also fall below Skyfall overseas (which is targeting $750m overseas) and I think will loose to it WW as well.

Interesting year, the two favourites TDKR and The Hobbit defeated by breakouts The Avengers and Skfall in their respective Quarters.

The fact Sky fall will outgross TDKR and TH is crazy..

The fact TA will be the highest grossing film WW and globally is a shock.

The fact that TA beat TDKR by 175 million domestic is nuts (even with 3D and TDKR has Imax)

The fact that THG broke 400 million and come close 90% of TDKR is nuts...

Healthy, Outstanding, Incredible, Great? It's like half of ROTK! Fucking disaster.

Yeah I am not sure why they are trying to make it look like a great number. Most of the sites I know are not even comparing the international numbers to LOTR. Maybe they did expect less from this movie still the fair comparison here has to be with LOTR movies, I mean its not going to be close to unadjusted openings of ROTK.

They didn't make it look like an awesome, must-see event...it kind of reminds me of Iron Man 2 which barely increased from Iron Man 1 despite it not being that huge and being really well-liked.

It should do $40m here at least. I'm sure it can make more in each of Russia and China.

Could it be... ... ... hype?

Agree with you post Arch - the marketing should have been much better. WB has often fallen into the poor marketing rut. New Line seemed to have done a much better job with LOTR.

Now just on the billboards in Melbourne - Ive seen a reasonable number. There is a big one off Kingsway seen on the freeway heading West. Also there is another on the Monash just before the tunnel. Both are Gandalf ones. Ive seen a few on bus stops as well and there is a large Bilbo Baggins one not far from my work (but its not a highly visible location).

The numbers seem fine to me. It'll no doubt have great legs over Christmas and China, Russia and Australia will add $120m between them.

it has already underperformed in hongkong and Taiwan. No movie has underperformed in these markets and then exploded in china. Plus its releasing only in February . I will not hold big hopes for china.

But it should do well in Russia and Australia. It would be disappointing if it does not make 100M between these 3 markets.

Three big Middle Earth movies are enough. Now you see it.

See what?

$800m WW is just one big fail?

Yeh, sure.

I cannot believe a movie is getting criticised for not reaching $1b. A milestone that only 2 movies have reached this year so far. So, i guess all the other movies were failures too.

True - - it will put it at around #35 on the all-time WW BO list - - it's just that some people had foolishly imagined it might do better than that.

Its not a fail but with 3D and inflation it is a bit low...

It'll be sitting around #175 on the all-time adjusted domestic box office list.

I don't hear anyone complaining that the latest Resident Evil movie didn't make $1b.

Seriously, there's a time to stop moaning and complaining. The film will be a success and be one the top earners this year...I see no problem. If people expected more, then the problem is more with them than The Hobbit performing badly. They shouldn't have had their expectations too high.

expectations were way too high this year for TH and TDKR and too low for other films like Skyfall and TA.

Oh, the good old "your expectations were too high" card... Like an old broad - cheap, overused, but effective.

It's true, though, no matter how old it is.

The only thing wrong with what I wrote was that they "shouldn't have had their expectations so high". They should have, but they should also understand and be realistic when those expectations are not met. A tough feat for Internet wise-asses.

Yeah this is a year of where films that were expected to big hits became all time hits...

THG, TA and Skyfall...

It opened to €1,774,817 here in Holland (€2,231,562 with previews). Second highest opening of the year (behind Skyfall's €2.9 million opening). It's also the best opening for a LOTR film, but only barely beating ROTK's €1,735,000 opening isn't that great. It should hold well over the holidays, though. Avatar only opened to €1.15 million and legged its way to a total over €18 million.

Skyfall's going to win the year handily, though.