2012 Box Office Charts
As of Sunday, 12/09:

Top Grossing Films (¥1 billion+)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (billion) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (million) :: Days In Release :: Distributor
01 :: ¥7.27 / $92.88 (8.20x) :: Umizaru: Brave Hearts :: July :: 5.72 :: OE :: Toho
02 :: ¥5.95 / $76.03 (13.75x) :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 4.70 :: OE :: Toho
03 :: ¥5.87 / $75.26 (7.30x) :: Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL :: Sept. :: 4.62 :: TE :: Toho
04 :: ¥5.38 / $70.55 (9.39x) :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '11 :: 4.24 :: OE :: Paramount
05 :: ¥4.18 / $53.49 (11.45x) :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: July :: 3.41 :: OE :: Toho
06 :: ¥4.14 / $51.69 (3.66x) :: Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo :: Nov. :: 3.01 :: 23 :: T-Joy
07 :: ¥3.87 / $48.85 (5.74x) :: Resident Evil: Retribution :: Sept. :: 2.60 :: TE :: Sony
08 :: ¥3.62 / $46.07 (6.56x) :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 3.35 :: OE :: Toho
09 :: ¥3.56 / $45.56 (7.12x) :: The Avengers :: Aug. :: 2.35 :: TE :: Disney
10 :: ¥3.51 / $44.88 (6.89x) :: Pokemon B&W: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo :: July :: 3.35 :: TE :: Toho
11 :: ¥3.44 / $43.68 (6.19x) :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 2.70 :: OE :: Toho
12 :: ¥3.28 / $42.32 (5.21x) :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Apr. :: 2.74 :: OE :: Toho
13 :: ¥3.16 / $40.88 (5.51x) :: Men in Black 3 :: May :: 2.12 :: TE :: Toho-Towa
14 :: ¥3.13 / $40.64 (5.34x) :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '11 :: 2.39 :: OE :: Toho
15 :: ¥3.11 / $39.49 (5.36x) :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: June :: 2.12 :: TE :: Sony
16 :: ¥2.92 / $37.21 (7.31x) :: Rurouni Kenshin :: Aug. :: 2.34 :: TE :: Warner Bros.
17 :: ¥2.51 / $31.67 (8.50x) :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 2.10 :: OE :: Asmik Ace/Toho
18 :: ¥2.51 / $30.79 (6.20x) :: The Floating Castle :: Nov. :: 2.10 :: 38 :: Toho/Asmik Ace
19 :: ¥2.40 / $30.36 (5.16x) :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 1.85 :: OE :: Toho
20 :: ¥2.20 / $27.50 (7.00x) :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 1.76 :: OE :: Toho
21 :: ¥2.16 / $27.21 (5.35x) :: Dark Shadows :: May :: 1.71 :: TE :: Warner Bros.
22 :: ¥2.13 / $27.16 (9.14x) :: Dearest :: Aug. :: 1.99 :: TE :: Toho
23 :: ¥2.04 / $26.01 (8.75x) :: Heruta Skelter :: July :: 1.55 :: TE :: Asmik Ace
24 :: ¥2.01 / $25.87 (11.16x) :: Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted :: Aug. :: 1.58 :: TE :: Paramount
25 :: ¥1.99 / $24.58 (6.67x) :: Holy Scripture of Evil :: Nov. :: 1.53 :: 30 :: Toho
26 :: ¥1.96 / $24.49 (6.46x) :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 1.67 :: TE :: Warner Bros.
27 :: ¥1.92 / $24.27 (5.16x) :: The Dark Knight Rises :: July :: 1.46 :: TE :: Warner Bros.
28 :: ¥1.90 / $24.14 (6.01x) :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '11 :: 1.45 :: OE :: Shochiku
29 :: ¥1.84 / $23.54 (5.88x) :: Glow of Fireflies :: June :: 1.49 :: TE :: Toho
30 :: ¥1.80 / $23.07 (6.49x) :: In Time :: Feb. :: 1.40 :: TE :: FOX
31 :: ¥1.77 / $22.70 (5.86x) :: Prometheus :: Aug. :: 1.22 :: TE :: FOX
32 :: ¥1.71 / $22.01 (5.45x) :: We Were There: Part II :: Apr. :: 1.37 :: TE :: Asmik Ace/Toho
33 :: ¥1.71 / $21.98 (5.67x) :: Snow White and the Huntsman :: June :: 1.33 :: TE :: Toho-Towa
34 :: ¥1.70 / $21.97 (6.15x) :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 1.36 :: OE :: Toho
35 :: ¥1.60 / $20.26 (8.37x) :: Connection :: Oct. :: 1.32 :: 58 :: Toho
36 :: ¥1.56 / $19.86 (3.81x) :: Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Super Hero Taisen :: Apr. :: 1.34 :: TE :: TOEI
37 :: ¥1.55 / $19.85 (4.06x) :: Space Brothers :: May :: 1.21 :: TE :: Toho
38 :: ¥1.51 / $19.68 (4.01x) :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '11 :: 1.30 :: TE :: TOEI
39 :: ¥1.50 / $19.28 (5.13x) :: Battleship :: Apr. :: 1.18 :: OE :: Toho-Towa
40 :: ¥1.47 / $19.01 (10.42x) :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '11 :: 1.10 :: TE :: Toho
41 :: ¥1.45 / $18.62 (6.41x) :: Real Steel :: Dec '11 :: 1.13 :: OE :: Walt Disney
42 :: ¥1.45 / $18.43 (18.39x) :: The Intouchables :: Sept. :: 1.17 :: TE :: Gaga
43 :: ¥1.43 / $18.22 (9.47x) :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '11 :: 1.13 :: TE :: TOEI
44 :: ¥1.41 / $18.04 (4.67x) :: Naruto: Road to Ninja :: July :: 1.21 :: TE :: Toho
45 :: ¥1.39 / $17.87 (8.47x) :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '11 :: 1.15 :: TE :: Toho
46 :: ¥1.37 / $17.37 (5.57x) :: Sadako 3D :: May :: .969 :: TE :: Kadokawa Pictures
47 :: ¥1.36 / $17.93 (4.87x) :: Outrage 2: Beyond :: Oct. :: 1.02 :: TE :: Warner Bros.
48 :: ¥1.28 / $15.86 (5.54x) :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: .996 :: TE :: Sony
49 :: ¥1.27 / $15.86 (4.96x) :: Kamen Rider Fourze: Everyone, Space is Here! :: Aug. :: 1.04 :: TE :: TOEI
50 :: ¥1.22 / $15.41 (6.78x) :: A Chorus of Angels :: Nov. :: .952 :: 37 :: TOEI
51 :: ¥1.20 / $15.36 (7.04x) :: Puss in Boots :: Mar. :: .925 :: OE :: Paramount
52 :: ¥1.18 / $15.19 (5.84x) :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 1.01 :: TE :: Toho
53 :: ¥1.14 / $14.61 (9.47x) :: Chronicle of My Mother :: Apr. :: .876 :: TE :: Shochiku
54 :: ¥1.12 / $14.02 (8.11x) :: Inazuma Eleven GO :: Dec '11 :: .926 :: TE :: Toho
55 :: ¥1.09 / $13.93 (4.96x) :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '11 :: .754 :: TE :: Toho-Towa
56 :: ¥1.05 / $13.44 (6.76x) :: Eight Ranger :: July :: .880 :: TE :: Toho
57 :: ¥1.03 / $12.90 (5.28x) :: Crayon Shin-chan (2012) :: Apr. :: .963 :: TE :: Toho
58 :: ¥1.03 / $12.87 (5.88x) :: Hugo :: Mar. :: .732 :: TE :: Paramount
59 :: ¥1.02 / $12.75 (5.23x) :: Pretty Cure All Stars New Stage: Friends of the Future :: Mar. :: .881 :: TE :: TOEI
60 :: ¥1.01 / $12.68 (4.69x) :: Total Recall :: Aug. :: .800 :: TE :: Sony



***************************************************************
***************************************************************



Top Opening Weekends [FINAL] (2-Days ONLY, ¥250 million+)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (million) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (thousand) :: Screen Count :: Distributor
01 :: ¥1,133.0 / $14.05 :: Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo :: Nov. :: 771.76 :: 224 :: T-Joy
02 :: ¥878.23 / $11.08 :: Umizaru: Brave Hearts :: July :: 686.98 :: 450 :: Toho
03 :: ¥804.27 / $10.29 :: Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL :: Sept. :: 604.09 :: 452 :: Toho
04 :: ¥676.99 / $8.58 :: Resident Evil: Retribution :: Sept. :: 433.94 :: 779 :: Sony
05 :: ¥629.74 / $7.82 :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Apr. :: 540.98 :: 351 :: Toho
06 :: ¥583.89 / $7.61 :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: June :: 426.16 :: 1,092 :: Sony
07 :: ¥581.04 / $7.48 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '11 :: 431.09 :: 446 :: Toho
08 :: ¥573.57 / $7.35 :: Men in Black 3 :: May :: 372.97 :: 979 :: Toho-Towa
09 :: ¥573.22 / $7.34 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '11 :: 437.75 :: 636 ::Paramount
10 :: ¥555.62 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 421.27 :: 473 :: Toho
11 :: ¥552.62 / $6.86 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 485.47 :: 359 :: Toho
12 :: ¥509.94 / $6.42 :: Pokemon B&W: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo :: July :: 489.86 :: 351 :: Toho
13 :: ¥500.93 / $6.34 :: The Avengers :: Aug. :: 326.11 :: 844 :: Disney
14 :: ¥468.70 / $5.81 :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 351.47 :: 279 :: Toho
15 :: ¥432.55 / $5.40 :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 325.69 :: 304 :: Toho
16 :: ¥410.04 / $5.16 :: Kamen Rider x Super Sentei: Super Hero Taisen :: Apr. :: 355.99 :: 292 :: TOEI
17 :: ¥405.07 / $5.10 :: The Floating Castle :: Nov. :: 323.22 :: 328 :: Toho/Asmik Ace
18 :: ¥404.53 / $5.07 :: Dark Shadows :: May :: 311.16 :: 571 :: Warner Bros.
19 :: ¥399.53 / $5.05 :: Rurouni Kenshin :: Aug. :: 295.32 :: 327 :: Warner Bros.
20 :: ¥382.32 / $4.87 :: Space Brothers :: May :: 285.34 :: 322 :: Toho
21 :: ¥378.03 / $4.84 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '11 :: 333.13 :: 301 :: TOEI
22 :: ¥372.02 / $4.75 :: The Dark Knight Rises :: July :: 269.17 :: 546 :: Warner Bros.
23 :: ¥365.15 / $4.67 :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: July :: 276.33 :: 381 :: Toho
24 :: ¥316.31 / $4.08 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '11 :: 237.82 :: 137 :: Shochiku
25 :: ¥314.89 / $3.97 :: We Were There: Part II :: Apr. :: 242.92 :: 297 :: Asmik Ace/Toho
26 :: ¥314.70 / $3.96 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 242.19 :: 318 :: Toho
27 :: ¥313.66 / $3.95 :: Glow of Fireflies :: June :: 242.82 :: 316 :: Toho
28 :: ¥303.35 / $3.87 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 237.98 :: 464 :: Warner Bros.
29 :: ¥302.49 / $3.84 :: Prometheus :: Aug. :: 200.18 :: 768 :: FOX
30 :: ¥302.08 / $3.81 :: Naruto: Path to Ninja :: July :: 254.03 :: 262 :: Toho
31 :: ¥301.78 / $3.80 :: Snow White and the Huntsman :: June :: 234.87 :: 572 :: Toho-Towa
32 :: ¥298.85 / $3.79 :: Holy Scripture of Evil :: Nov. :: 215.06 :: 309 :: Toho
33 :: ¥295.31 / $3.75 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 227.24 :: 295 :: Asmik Ace/Toho
34 :: ¥292.16 / $3.68 :: Battleship :: Apr. :: 237.87 :: 545 :: Toho-Towa
35 :: ¥279.24 / $3.67 :: Outrage 2: Beyond :: Oct. :: 206.61 :: 225 :: Warner Bros.
36 :: ¥277.13 / $3.63 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 203.05 :: 427 :: FOX
37 :: ¥276.41 / $3.62 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 217.18 :: 377 :: Toho
38 :: ¥254.17 / $3.25 :: Kamen Rider Fourze: Everyone, Space is Here! :: Aug. :: 217.66 :: 304 :: TOEI

The 2012 Box Office Year is over so the Opening Weekend Chart is finalized.

_{-KEY-
New Entry
Indicates a film still in release or being tracked.
Days in Release: TE (Temporary Estimate) / OE (Official Estimate) / FT (Final Total)}

2013 Box Office Charts
As of Sunday, 12/09:

Top Grossing Films
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (billion) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (million) :: Days In Release :: Distributor
01 :: ¥1.09 / $13.34 (2.40x) :: 007: Skyfall :: Dec '12 :: 0.908 :: 9 :: Sony
02 :: ¥0.293 / $3.57 (1.69x) :: Inazuma Eleven Go! Vs. Danball Senkei W :: Dec '12 :: 0.279 :: 9 :: Toho
03 :: ¥0.282 / $3.44 (0.00x) :: Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fourze & Wizard :: Dec '12 :: 0.245 :: 2 :: Toei
04 :: ¥0.225 / $2.75 (0.00x) :: Today, I Started Loving You :: Dec '12 :: 0.188 :: 2 :: Toho
05 :: ¥0.041 / $0.50 (2.15x) :: Yokohama Arena 5.20 1991 :: Dec '12 :: 0.035 :: 9 :: Toho Video Division
06 :: ¥0.021 / $0.26 (0.00x) :: The Woman in Black :: Dec '12 :: 0.019 :: TE :: Broad Media Studios
07 :: ¥0.015 / $0.18 (0.00x) :: Salmon Fishing in Yemen :: Dec '12 :: 0.013 :: 2 :: Gaga

Notes:
Skyfall is the first film of 2013 to exceed ¥1 billion. Once 10 films reach this mark, I'll remove all films that are below the mark from the chart. At the moment, 60 films achieved ¥1 billion in 2012 (the second highest ever), so 2013 has quite the challenge already.

The Woman in Black meets an early death. Tracking ended after a single week.


Top Opening Weekends (2-Days ONLY)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (million) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (thousand) :: Screen Count :: Distributor
01 :: ¥454.64 / $5.56 :: 007: Skyfall :: Dec '12 :: 398.8 :: 584 :: Sony
02 :: ¥281.64 / $3.44 :: Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fourze & Wizard :: Dec '12 :: 244.9 :: 298 :: Toei
03 :: ¥225.32 / $2.75 :: Today, I Started Loving You :: Dec '12 :: 188.4 :: 301 :: Toho
04 :: ¥173.56 / $2.12 :: Inazuma Eleven Go! Vs. Danball Senkei W :: Dec '12 :: 172.2 :: 268 :: Toho
05 :: ¥21.22 / $0.26 :: The Woman in Black :: Dec '12 :: 18.8 :: 110 :: Broad Media Studios
06 :: ¥15.35 / $0.19 :: Yokohama Arena 5.20 1991 :: Dec '12 :: 12.6 :: 66 :: Toho Video Division
07 :: ¥14.69 / $0.18 :: Salmon Fishing in Yemen :: Dec '12 :: 12.9 :: 61 :: Gaga

Notes:
Good debuts for both Kamen Rider and Today. Once 10 films open over ¥200 million, I'll remove all films that are below the mark from the chart.

Key:
Top Grossing Films: In Release
Top Opening Weekends: Debut
Following Tracking: TE (Temporary Estimate) / OE (Official Estimate) / FT (Final Total)

Overall Tally Results (As of Thursday Morning)

One Piece
SOLD OUT: 9/78
Few Left: 16/78
Half Full: 17/78
Plenty Left: 36/78

The Hobbit
SOLD OUT: 0/61
Few Left: 0/61
Half Full: 2/61
Plenty Left: 59/61

Humanoid Monster
SOLD OUT: 0/43
Few Left: 0/43
Half Full: 0/43
Plenty Left: 43/43

One Piece is strong with over half of it's showtimes 50% full. It has fewer sell outs than Evangelion 3.0 at the same point in time, however, One Piece is opening on more screens and has more showtimes. I'm not expecting One Piece to open higher than Evangelion 3.0 right now, but it's going to have a huge opening and will handily take the weekend crown.

The Hobbit isn't looking good at all. Only 2 of it's showtimes have reached the 50% ticket sold mark. What makes this most concerning is that the film is only playing on small-medium sized screens. All the bigger screens are going to One Piece. Expectations have been fairly low here, and maybe rightfully so if ticket sales so far are any indication. It was unwise to open the film this weekend. If it would bomb, Hollywood has a very troublesome future ahead. I wouldn't call The Hobbit a disappointment yet though, walk-ups could be strong.

Humanoid Monster hasn't sold more than 50% of it's tickets for any showtime right now, but that's expected given it should be a distant third place and skews much younger than the other two openers.

Well, it's official.

Studio Ghibli's co-founders, Hayao Miyazaki and Isao Takahata will release their news films, Kaze Tachinu (The Wind Rises) and Kaguya-Hime no Monogatari (Princess Kaguya Story), as a Double Feature in Summer 2013.

They did the same back in 1988 with My Neighbor Totoro and Grave of the Fireflies, but the studio and their names weren't well-known at the time.

http://kazetachinu.jp/
http://www.kaguyahime-monogatari.jp/

This is going to be enormous with potentially unlimited potential. ¥20 billion or more (currently close to $250 million) is probably doable. Ponyo did ¥15.5 billion on it's own four years ago. I have a feeling the films may be billed as the final films from both Miyazaki and Takahata (very likely Takahata's last), too, which would just increase the potential here.

Are you expecting a big opening for One Piece like Evangelion 3.0 had?

Yep. It may end up doubling The Hobbit's opening.

3D kept Hollywood afloat in 2010/2011 but with 3D now dying in Japan, Hollywood films are collapsing in the market. They only had 5 films in the Top 20 this year ( ). I don't even think they'll get a 30% market share for 2012.

They have early morning screenings of One Piece (4 AM) and people are actually buying tickets for that showtime?

Awesome.

Roppongi Hills has a 4am showing with four seats currently filled.

Some of the most popular cinemas in Tokyo (Roppongi and Wald 9) are practically open 24 hours on Saturday when an event film opens. The first showings are at 7/8am with the final showings being 3/4am.

So far The Hobbit is doing poor business in the morning. I haven't seen a single sell out and only a couple showtimes at Cinecitta (one of the busiest theaters in the country) reached or are at 50% capacity. Showtimes in the afternoon still have plenty seats left, too.

Friday (plays like a regular weekday) is always much weaker than Saturday and Sunday, but this is still a discouraging sign. We may have another Amazing Spider-Man (50%+ drop from it's predecessors) on our hands.

Overall Tally Results (As of Friday Morning)

One Piece
SOLD OUT: 17/78
Few Left: 14/78
Half Full: 18/78
Plenty Left: 29/78

The Hobbit
SOLD OUT: 0/61
Few Left: 1/61
Half Full: 5/61
Plenty Left: 55/61

Humanoid Monster
SOLD OUT: 0/43
Few Left: 0/43
Half Full: 0/43
Plenty Left: 43/43

One Piece has begun to surge and is nearing opening day sell outs at some locations. It's not quite as strong as Evangelion 3.0 was last month, but as I mentioned before One Piece is playing at more locations (33% more) with many more showtimes available. Another ¥1 billion opening could happen again.

The Hobbit sees some improvement, and has at least one showing at Wald 9 that should sell out before Saturday. Still, this is very underwhelming so close to the weekend. I'm questing walk-up business now, too, since Friday isn't doing well at all.

Humanoid Monster probably isn't going to see more than a few Half Full showtimes before Saturday, but being a family film it's not unexpected.

Less than 24 hours now (14 hours for One Piece since it has a few midnights) until the first showings begin.

ROPPONGI HILLS
Film - Saturday Tickets Sold (As of Fri. 10:30am)

One Piece Film Z - 1,857 (NEW!)
007: Skyfall - 524 (Week 3)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 452 (NEW!)
Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo - 120 (Week 5)
Frankenweenie - 112 (NEW!)
Humanoid Monster, Bem - 54 (NEW!)
Spirit Helper - 15 (Week 5)
Today, I Started Loving You - 8 (Week 2)
Trouble with the Curve - 6 (Week 4)
K-Pop Dream Concert - 6 (NEW!)
Tug-Of-War!! - 2 (Week 4)

Just noticed Frankenweenie is doing pretty well for itself here and a few other major locations. Burton has many fans in Japan, and Japan is usually Burton's best overseas market.

If anyone here likes Avril Lavigne, here are her two theme songs (both covers) for One Piece Film Z.

Overall Tally Results (As of Friday, 11pm)

One Piece
SOLD OUT: 23/78
Few Left: 14/78
Half Full: 16/78
Plenty Left: 25/78

The Hobbit
SOLD OUT: 0/61
Few Left: 2/61
Half Full: 6/61
Plenty Left: 53/61

Humanoid Monster
SOLD OUT: 0/43
Few Left: 1/43
Half Full: 2/43
Plenty Left: 40/43

(Update is at the Bottom of Page 3!)

I won't have a chance to update close to the first showings Saturday morning, so here is the final tally with 7/8 hours to go.

One Piece continues to grow and isn't far off Evangelion 3.0 in sell outs now. In fact, if you factor in the rural areas where One Piece is playing much stronger than Evangelion 3.0 and the higher screen count, it may be ahead in overall ticket sales. An opening over 1 billion yen is looking likely.

The Hobbit barely moved from the last update. I didn't keep constant track of it's business on Friday, but I never saw any sell outs or any showtimes reach the Few Left mark. It's also still behind Skyfall's third week at Roppongi Hills in Tokyo. I think it might bomb here.

Humanoid Monster shows some life with a couple Half Full and even a Few Left showtime before opening, very encouraging for a kid/family film. If worst comes to worst for The Hobbit, Humanoid Monster could challenge it for the #2 spot this weekend.

Thanks Corpse. Can you define bomb. Are we looking at brave kind of flop or something beyond that.

I see a single Sell Out at Wald 9 but it's the smallest screen (just 72 seats). Cinecitta and Roppongi don't have any Sell Outs but do have some showtimes with Few tickets left. These three theaters Sell Out all the time, so the results so far today for The Hobbit are pretty bad.

I'd say Amazing Spider-Man level of bomb/disappointment. So-so results when looking at only the numbers, but poor for this type of film and far less than it could have been probably dropping over 50% from it's predecessors.

12/15-16
Weekend Forecast



1 (-) One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥1.2 billion ($14.5 million) NEW!
2 (-) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥425 million ($5.2 million) NEW!
3 (-) Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho) ¥350 million ($4.3 million) NEW!
4 (2) 007: Skyfall (Sony) ¥210 million ($2.6 million) Week 3
5 (-) Frankenweenie (Disney) ¥200 million ($2.5 million) NEW!
6 (1) Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fourze & Wizard (Toei) ¥145 million ($1.8 million) Week 2
7 (3) Today, I Started Loving You (Toho) ¥140 million ($1.7 million) Week 2
8 (4) Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥125 million ($1.5 million) Week 5
9 (6) Holy Scripture of Evil (Toho) ¥70 million ($850,000) Week 7
10 (5) Inazuma Eleven Go Vs. Danball Senkei W: The Movie (Toho) ¥60 million ($725,000) Week 3

One Piece Film Z is opening on 301 screens (58% more than it's predecessor and 34% more than Evangelion 3.0 last month) and will drawf it's competition this weekend. It's likely to exceed ¥1 billion with the number of sell outs it has, which is astounding considering Evangelion 3.0 did just this last month (Harry Potter 7.2 was the last film to hit the mark before Eva 3.0), and it will have one of the biggest openings of the past 5 years.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey has been sluggish ever since tickets went on sale and even today it's not even reaching 50% capacity for the majority of it's showings (and most screens are small/medium size, too). An opening over ¥500 million is probably too much to even ask for now despite it's huge 876 screen count.

Humanoid Monster, Bem is making a run at the #2 spot for the weekend and should post solid numbers. Toho is opening the film at 331 locations (screen count unknown).

Frankeweenie has been impressive at the theaters I've been tracking and will surprise a bit opening weekend. It's screen count is 488, also quite impressive. Any debut close to ¥200 million for the weekend will assure it crosses ¥1 billion, thus beating Pixar's Brave (that's how badly it bombed).

One Piece Film Z is estimated to open with over 600,000 admissions and ¥750 million ($9 million) today.

https://twitter.com/bunkatsushin/status ... 1003416576

It should be noted this report came in before Saturday is even over (following a report that One Piece had sold out 70% of it's showtimes), too, so perhaps it'll go even higher.

The weekend figure is now expected to exceed ¥1.3 billion ($16 million) which will break some records, too, but I'll wait to post those lists.


Biggest Opening Days (since 2008)

[JPY]
One Piece Film Z - ¥750 million (301 screens) Est.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - ¥705 million (922 screens)
Alice in Wonderland - ¥692 million (859 screens)
Rookies - ¥673 million (428 screens)
Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo - ¥648 million (224 screens)
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - ¥598 million (800 screens)
One Piece Film Strong World - ¥553 million (190 screens)
Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! - ¥529 million (447 screens)

[USD]
One Piece Film Z - $9.1 million ($30,200 PTA) Est.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $8.8 million ($9,500 PTA)
Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo - $8.1 million ($35,900 PTA)
Alice in Wonderland - $7.5 million ($8,700 PTA)
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $7.4 million ($9,400 PTA)
Rookies - $7.1 million ($16,500 PTA)
One Piece Film Strong World - $6.4 million ($32,700 PTA)
Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! - $6.0 million ($13,500 PTA)

[Admissions]
One Piece Film Z - 600,000 (301 screens) Est.
Rookies - 518,175 (428 screens)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 - 478,177 (922 screens)
Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo - 443,408 (224 screens)
Alice in Wonderland - 440,002 (859 screens)
One Piece Film Strong World - 436,133 (190 screens)
Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! - 390,012 (447 screens)
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - 384,995 (800 screens)
Ponyo - 372,758 (481 screens)

While One Piece is doing records numbers, the complete opposite is happening with The Hobbit and, to a lesser extent, Humanoid Monster.

The Hobbit looks like it may struggle to even reach ¥400 million (sub-$5 million) for the weekend. Some early ticket sale comparisons are projecting as low as ¥300 million(!). An opening near ¥400 million would be about a 75% drop from Return of the King's opening weekend, and over 50% drops from Fellowship and Two Towers as well.

This is going to be yet another example of a major 3D release disappointing/bombing this year in Japan. People are simply avoiding it now and 3D shares have only broke 50% a few times because the 3D screen count is always so high leaving people who really want to see a film with no choice but 3D sometimes. This method kills the chances of any casual moviegoers attending, though, so Hollywood needs to rethink their "strategy".

Humanoid Monster also doesn't appear it's doing well either with early ticket sale comparisons to last year's Kaibutsu-Kun suggesting it may miss ¥300 million (~$4 million).

Full Opening Day Estimates should be available pretty soon.

12/15
Saturday Estimates

Rank / Film / Sat. Gross / Change-from-last-Sat / Day in Release
1. One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥729 million ($8.84 million), 0, NEW! *
2. Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho) ¥98 million ($1.19 million), 0, NEW!
3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥95 million ($1.15 million), 0, NEW!
4. Today, I Started Loving You (Toho) ¥94 million ($1.14 million), -15%, Day 8
5. 007: Skyfall (Sony) ¥81 million ($990,000), -40%, Day 15
6. Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fourze & Wizard (Toei) ¥79 million ($960,000), -47%, Day 8
7. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥64 million ($780,000), -31%, Day 29
8. Frankenweenie (Disney) ¥55 million ($670,000), 0, NEW!
9. Inazuma Eleven Go! Vs. Danball Senkei W: The Movie (Toho) ¥35 million ($430,000), -28%, Day 15
10. Holy Scripture of Evil (Toho) ¥25 million ($305,000), -48%, Day 42

*Distributor Toei projecting ¥750 million ($9.1 million).

One Piece opens to a record opening day, the biggest ever for a local film, and at least the biggest ever since 2006/2007. Depending on Sunday, it's weekend should land between ¥1.2-1.4 billion ($15-17 million) giving it one of the best opening weekends ever.

Humanoid Monster fails to get off the ground. It'll have to depend on families coming out over the next few weeks now.

... The Hobbit ... nothing can really be said besides calling it a complete BOMB. That's a $1,300 psa... This is far worse than when Brave and Amazing Spider-Man bombed in the Summer. A ¥200 million ($2.5 million) opening weekend is about the best it can do meaning that even with a 10x multiplier that mid/late Dec. releases sometimes get, ¥2 billion ($25) is the likely ceiling and it's probably not going to get that high. Compared to it's predecessors, it's dropping some 70/80% and maybe close to 90% in admissions.

Japan, je t'aime!

Using the early estimates for One Piece Film Z, here is where it's likely to land on the Opening Weekend charts:

Top 10 (Animated Films) Opening Weekends All-Time (2-Day)

[JPY]
1. Howl's Moving Castle (Toho) ¥1.483 billion [449 scr] 2005
One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥1.2-1.4 billion [301 scr] 2013
2. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥1.133 billion [224 scr] 2012
3. One Piece Film Strong World (TOEI) ¥1.038 billion [190 scr] 2010
4. Ponyo (Toho) ¥1.034 billion [481 scr] 2008
5. Spirited Away (Toho) ¥1.009 billion [318 scr] 2001
6. Toy Story 3 (Disney) ¥977 million [530 scr] 2010
7. Tales From Earthsea (Toho) ¥907 million [435 scr] 2006
8. Finding Nemo (Disney) ¥898 million [654 scr] 2004
9. The Borrower Arrietty (Toho) ¥895 million [447 scr] 2010
10. Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Rise of Darkrai (Toho) ¥785 million [351 scr] 2007

[USD]
One Piece Film Z (Toei) $15-17 million [301 scr] 2013
1. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) $14.1 million [224 scr] 2012
2. Howl's Moving Castle (Toho) $13.9 million [449 scr] 2005
3. One Piece Film Strong World (TOEI) $11.9 million [190 scr] 2010
4. Toy Story 3 (Disney) $11.1 million [530 scr] 2010
5. The Borrower Arrietty (Toho) $10.5 million [447 scr] 2010
6. Ponyo (Toho) $9.8 million [481 scr] 2008
7. Spirited Away (Toho) $8.9 million [318 scr] 2001
8. Finding Nemo (Disney) $8.4 million [654 scr] 2004
9. Tales From Earthsea (Toho) $7.9 million [435 scr] 2006
10. Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Toho) $7.6 million [351 scr] 2012

[ADMISSIONS]
1. Howl's Moving Castle (Toho) 1,204,980 [449 scr] 2005
One Piece Film Z (Toei) 900,000-1,100,000 [301 scr] 2013
2. One Piece Film Strong World (Toei) 819,738 [190 scr] 2010
3. Ponyo (Toho) 812,557 [481 scr] 2008
4. Spirited Away (Toho) 810,000 est. [318 scr] 2001
5. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) 771,764 [224 scr] 2012
6. Finding Nemo (Disney) 724,000 est. [654 scr] 2004
7. The Borrower Arrietty (Toho) 680,190 [447 scr] 2010
8. Tales from Earthsea (Toho) 672,696 [435 scr] 2006
9. Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Rise of Darkrai (Toho) 657,000 est. [351 scr] 2007
10. Toy Story 3 (Disney) 649,299 [530 scr] 2010

________________________________________________________

Top 10 Biggest Opening Weekends (2-Day) Since 2008

[JPY]
One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥1.2-1.4 billion [301 scr] 2013
1. Alice in Wonderland (Disney) ¥1.316 billion [859 scr] 2010
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) ¥1.301 billion [922 scr] 2011
3. Rookies (Toho) ¥1.225 billion [428 scr] 2009
4. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥1.133 billion [224 scr] 2012
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney) ¥1.113 billion [800 scr] 2011
6. One Piece Film Strong World (Toei) ¥1.038 billion [190 scr] 2010
7. Ponyo (Toho) ¥1.034 billion [481 scr] 2008
8. Boys Over Flowers (Toho) ¥1.005 billion [409 scr] 2008
9. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Warner Bros.) ¥988 million [844 scr] 2009
10. Toy Story 3 (Disney) ¥977 million [530 scr] 2010

[USD]
One Piece Film Z (Toei) $15-17 million [301 scr] 2013
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) $16.4 million [922 scr] 2011
2. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) $14.1 million [224 scr] 2012
3. Alice in Wonderland (Disney) $14.0 million [859 scr] 2010
4. Rookies (Toho) $12.9 million [428 scr] 2009
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney) $13.8 million [800 scr] 2011
6. One Piece Film Strong World (Toei) $11.9 million [190 scr] 2010
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) $11.2 million [872 scr] 2011
8. Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (Toho) $11.2 million [447 scr] 2010
9. Toy Story 3 (Disney) $11.1 million [530 scr] 2010
10. Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) 11.1 million [450 scr] 2012

[ADMISSIONS]
One Piece Film Z (Toei) 900,000-1,100,000 [301 scr] 2013
1. Rookies (Toho) 987,387 [428 scr] 2009
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Disney) 880,697 [922 scr] 2011
3. Alice in Wonderland (Disney) 828,149 [859 scr] 2010
4. One Piece Film Strong World (Toei) 819,738 [190 scr] 2010
5. Ponyo (Toho) 812,557 [481 scr] 2008
6. Boys Over Flowers (Toho) 805,350 [409 scr] 2008
7. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Warner Bros.) 801,393 [844 scr] 2009
8. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Advance (T-Joy) 771,764 [224 scr] 2012
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney) 766,633 [800 scr] 2011
10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 761,961 [872 scr] 2011

You're evil. I was wondering if The Hobbit bombing (it's kinda redefining bomb or flop...) would make you post.

The fact that's it's bombing though definitely hurts Hollywood for the 2013 box office year, and in turn is puts a dent in the overall year at the very start. Japanese films continue to increase their revenue, so that sort of cancels it out, but this could have been a significant boost to the year instead of breaking even more or less.

The only other release Hollywood has now that can achieve blockbuster status (over 5 billion yen) is Monsters University. And unfortunately for them, they still have it set for July where it's going to open very close to Studio Ghibli's double feature (one of the films directed by Miyazaki himself). Disney/Pixar need to move it to November or December where they've had great success before with Up and Finding Nemo, and limit the number of 3D screens drastically. Audiences in Japan are avoiding 3D showings like the plague.