And then you have the death of Bin Laden being so recently. I think that hurts it as well. Lincoln has the edge.

It's time to revise the predictions given Les Misérables' reception. It will get a lot of noms, but it seems far from a juggernaut many made it out to be. Jackman isn't safe and neither is Hooper.

Yep, so much for those early raves I heard tell about, but yeah, I still see it getting a lot of tech nominations.

Jackman is happening.

What helped ZDT, and is going to help it through the Oscar season and possibly make it the frontrunner, is that Sony played it smart and stayed VERY coy about the entire production. Where Universal has been hyping the crap out of Les Miz and has brought up expectations way too high, Sony released very little of anything about the film, making these first reviews all the more shocking, and the Picture wins pretty much mind-blowing. By waiting to just let the film speak for itself, it's emerged as a potential 11th hour contender, which is sometimes the best kind of contender to be.

I don't know if I would predict it just yet, but I think it can match wits with Lincoln, which has been a raging success but more than anything just met expectations. It could still stumble.

One thing pretty certain is that ZDT won't go home empty handed. I would say it's the frontrunner for original screenplay and should also win either editing or actress. In the case of an unlikely sweep, it could win 7-8 awards (picture, director, cinematography, both sounds).

Just because Les Mis has some negative reviews means nothing, they'll get better. They aren't even terrible. Anyone remember The Perks of Being a Wallflower? That shit was rotten for quite awhile and now look at it's rating.

A Beautiful Mind won Best Picture, and it is only at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes.

So, no musical has been nominated since Chicago 2002 and yet, every single time a new big musical comes out, a small, but devoted grouip keeps claiming a musical would be a big cotender till the very end.

Happened to Dreamgirls (admittedly, it was more than just a small group, that snub was a surprise). Happened to Sweeney Todd.

We will see what happens. I am not even a fan of musicals in general. I just believe this can still be an Oscar powerhouse.

Besides Ginger & Rosa and Quartet, I wonder if any other films will have Oscar qualifying runs this year.

What's Ginger & Rosa?

A coming-of-age drama directed by Sally Potter (Orlando). Elle Fanning received excellent reviews for her lead performance when it played Toronto.

It won't be nominated, but its small distributor is giving it a bit of a push. Academy members have received a copy of it in the mail at least.

What helps Les Miz is that Dreamgirls definitely would've gotten in with a flexible field like this. Sweeney Todd might have too (Though 2007 was stupid-crowded). Unfortunately, for now it looks like its reviews are gonna be weaker tan those two, putting it at a major disadvantage.

That said, I'm still predicting it, though it's far from a lock.

Les Miz will be nominated but won't win. IMO unless the field this year was weake it never had a chance at winning.

Crash is at 76% also, and that was in a crowded year. I'm just saying don't count it yet. There are a lot of reviews that have been pushished and that aren't on metacritic or RottenTomatoes that are incredibly positive.

Its main competition was a gay romance. And it was an "important" movie.

Crash taught me that white people can change. That trumps any %.

Starting to have the feeling that Zero Dark Thirty could be on its way to have The Social Network type of critics sweep. Its MC score is simply that much better than the other contenders. We could then see a scenario where Lincoln plays The King's Speech role, as it could start winning the guilds after ZDT sweeping the critics.

My thoughts exactly. Lincoln will almost certainly win SAG Ensemble.

Look like Editing is pretty secured for ZDT.

The movie has been pretty controversial since it was first announced, really, I wouldn't say it's beginning now.

Won't hurt or help the film.

The Dark Knight Rises made the AFI top ten of the year!

I've also read a couple of columns criticizing ZDT depiction of supposed pro torture, i think this will hurt it with the extreme liberal crowd in hollywood and they have a lot of influence.

I don't believe it will be regarded as "pro-torture" so much as a film involving scenes of torture.