Friday				November 30
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	Life of Pi	25,957	24,261	-6.5%	+50.9%
2	Cold War	22,326	12,761	-42.8%	+41.8%
3	Red Dawn	--	4,220	--	+31.8%
4	Skyfall	6,588	3,190	-51.6%	+39.7%
5	Killing Them Softly	--	2,795	--	+11.6%

Excellent for Life of Pi. It had the best increase of the top 5 with a gigantic 51% spike. It is vying for 1.15m this weekend. Cold War is slowing down somewhat but it is doing OK still. It will be close to or pass 5m this weekend. Red Dawn had an average gain. It'll make over $100,000 this weekend. Skyfall will end up with a weaker hold this weekend. 5m is unlikely. Killing Them Softly had a poor increase. It'll miss $100,000 this weekend.

		Thursday Actuals						November 29
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Showings	Days	Total
1	1	Life of Pi	$188,793	$133,815	-29.1%	290	8	$1,970,783
2	2	Cold War	$92,875	$52,503	-43.5%	205	22	$4,694,571
--	3	Red Dawn	--	$22,169	--	137	1	$23,225
3	4	Skyfall	$31,518	$18,113	-42.5%	72	29	$4,549,890
--	5	Killing Them Softly	--	$15,217	--	55	1	$15,217
4	6	Love in Time	$17,552	$10,448	-40.5%	57	8	$166,448
--	7	Jan Dara: The Beginning	--	$9,148	--	43	1	$9,148
--	8	House at the End of the Street	--	$6,926	--	75	1	$7,741
7	9	Argo	$8,988	$5,877	-34.6%	30	15	$289,032
--	10	I Have to Buy New Shoes	--	$5,570	--	53	1	$7,741

Due West 3D	$2,458,228
Intouchables	$1,083,512
Natural Born Lovers	$819,528
Umizaru: Brave Hearts	$551,338
Triad	$413,735
Rise of the Guardians	$181,157

Strong for Life of Pi. It is aiming for 3m total after 11 days. Cold War had a bigger drop on Thursday but it should still be enough to be able to force it past 5m. Red Dawn had a bigger Thursday than Skyfall but Skyfall will finish at #3 for the weekend. Skyfall should see bigger Saturday/Sunday and it'll be just enough for it to slide past Red Dawn for the weekend. Killing Them Softly had a decent start. Love in Time had a pretty good hold despite the bad start last weekend. Jan Dara did OK while House at the End of the Street stumbled. Argo held well even though it lost quite a few showings. I Have to Buy New Shoes didn't impress at all.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			December 1
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Life of Pi	20,296	18,892	-6.9%	+99.5%
2	Cold War	10,402	5,297	-49.1%	+50.7%
3	Skyfall	3,634	1,580	-56.5%	+59.6%
4	Killing Them Softly	--	1,285	--	+32.9%
5	Rise of the Guardians	1,868	1,195	--	--

Pretty much the same deal as last week. It is looking at 50,000 admissions today. There's a chance it could increase from last week as well. Cold War is seeking 20,000 admissions. Skyfall has seen bigger drops yesterday and today but I think it will rebound to 5,800 for the day. Killing Them Softly had the worst increase on Friday and I don't expect much of a bump today. Rise of the Guardians is not making the top 5 but it might pull out a 46% drop. It doesn't mean great things for it though. It is still making up ground from Thursday, when it fell over 65%. Red Dawn will enter the top 4 and is looking at a little over 5,000 for Saturday.

	Saturday				December 1
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	Life of Pi	50,220	45,772	-8.9%	+88.7%
2	Cold War	35,645	20,326	-43.0%	+59.3%
3	Red Dawn	--	5,846	--	+38.5%
4	Skyfall	10,514	5,615	-46.6%	+76.0%
5	Killing Them Softly	--	3,613	--	+29.3%

Life of Pi had an outstanding hold. It couldn't, however, nab the increase due to the weak afternoon session. Fortunately, it came back at night to slip only 9% for the day. Cold War is hanging on in its 4th weekend. Red Dawn won in admissions but Skyfall won in gross on Saturday. These 2 will be very close this weekend. As far as their increases are concerned, Red Dawn didn't have much of one while Skyfall shot up. Killing Them Softly had a shaky increase and it can be blamed on the terrible word of mouth it's getting. The F Cinemascore is accurately depicted with early user reviews so far. Every single person has given this crime drama a thumbs down.

	Weekend Projections			November 29
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Life of Pi	$1,135,000	-17.3%	$2,970,000
2	Cold War	$350,000	-47.7%	$4,990,000
3	Skyfall	$130,000	-45.7%	$4,660,000
4	Red Dawn	$125,000		$125,000
5	Killing Them Softly	$75,000		$75,000

What can we say about Life of Pi? How about fan-freaking-tastic? It'll have to come down to actuals but 3m could be achieved this weekend. Regardless of when it passes the 3m mark, its hold is one of the best this year for a 2nd weekend holdover. Cold War is also waiting for actuals to confirm if it snuck past 5m this weekend. Its 4th weekend drop isn't great, but, many HK films fail to deliver at least 3 weekends of below 50% holds. The last HK film to achieve this was Ip Man 2 and it could even do one better if it drops less than 50% next week. Skyfall held OK and it is currently looking at a 4.825m finish. For the weekend, it will be a close duel for #3 between itself and Red Dawn. Currently, Red Dawn is ahead but Skyfall will have the better Sunday to snag the victory. Killing Them Softly is having very weak increases the past 2 days. I don't expect much of a decrease on Sunday due to the very soft increase on Saturday but its weekend turned out to be a failure.

Is Thursday added towards a "weekend" in Hong Kong?

Yes. Every official report includes Thursday in the weekend because most movies come out on that day.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			December 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Life of Pi	24,912	21,439	-13.9%	+13.5%
2	Cold War	11,148	5,594	-49.8%	+5.6%
3	Rise of the Guardians	2,781	2,072	-25.5%	+73.4%
4	Skyfall	3,682	1,892	-48.6%	+19.7%
5	Killing Them Softly	--	1,195	--	-7.0%

Great for Life of Pi. It could fall less than 15% today. Cold War is slowing down but I think it will drop less than 50% for the weekend. There's no other way to explain about Rise of the Guardians' Jekyll and Hyde moves up and down the chart except that it does terrible on weekdays but has very strong weekends. Thursday and Friday saw heavy drops of more than 65% but today it will fall around 30% from last Sunday. Skyfall should win in admissions and gross on Sunday and it will just be able to squeeze past Red Dawn for #3. Killing Them Softly is doing horribly. WOM is killing this badly.

Killing Them Softly is doing fine, actually. It has less than half the number of showtimes Red Dawn has, yet makes more than two thirds of gross Red Dawn does.

Argo has a strong hold this weekend. So far on Sunday admission is 2,328, right behind KTS' 2,669 and Red Dawn's 3,941.

I was speaking from a 'daily' perspective, not a weekend one. It had a good Thursday but every day afterwards has been very underwhelming. It will have an OK PTA thanks to Thursday but I expected more from it after a very good opening day.

Argo is looking at a 30-35% drop.

	Sunday				December 2
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	Life of Pi	53,047	44,701	-15.7%	-2.3%
2	Cold War	30,841	17,657	-42.7%	-13.1%
3	Skyfall	9,619	5,374	-44.1%	-4.3%
4	Red Dawn	--	4,777	--	-18.3%
5	Rise of the Guardians	6,530	4,418	-32.3%	--

Red Dawn had a really weak Sunday hold and it allowed Skyfall to pass it for #3. Pretty standard for rest.

Interesting facts: 43% of Killing Them Softly's weekend admissions came from Thursday and Friday while 88% of Rise of the Guardians's 2nd weekend came courtesy of Saturday and Sunday.

	Weekend adm.			Nov 29-Dec 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Life of Pi	148,937	130,811	-12.2%
2	Cold War	103,739	59,743	-42.4%
3	Red Dawn	--	18,046	--
4	Skyfall	30,863	16,463	-46.7%
5	Killing Them Softly	--	12,015	--

	Weekend Estimates			November 29
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Life of Pi	$1,135,000	-17.3%	$2,970,000
2	Cold War	$350,000	-47.7%	$4,990,000
3	Skyfall	$130,000	-45.7%	$4,660,000
4	Red Dawn	$125,000		$125,000
5	Killing Them Softly	$72,500		$72,500

With the exception of Life of Pi, none of the other holdovers in top 5 or openers performed well.

That's expected after seeing the move. Nothing travels faster than bad WOM, and the film is not for the mainstream, so it travels really fast. Thursday was ok, then Friday-Sunday were awful.

What's coming out for the rest of December, Bluebomb?

I added January in first post.

Release Date	Movie Title
December 6	Iron Sky My Sassy Hubby The Fierce Wife The Mystical Laws Seal Team 6: The Raid on Osama Bin Laden Caught in the Web Rurouni Kenshin The Unbelievable 2 - Channeling the Spirits A Letter to Momo A Ghost of A Chance Back to 1942 Fairy Tail: The Phoenix Priestess
December 13	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey All About My Wife Penance (Parts 1-3)
December 20	CZ12 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Jack Reacher Wreck-It Ralph Bunny Drop Penance (Parts 4-5)
December 25	Les Miserables
December 27	Celeste & Jesse Forever In The House The Guillotines Naruto: Road to Ninja Keep the Lights On

December 6 is the calm before the storm week. I'm kinda surprised that they decided to send most of these films to the grave by opening 1 week before The Hobbit. My Sassy Hubby looks to do the best of the lot. The Hobbit will clobber everything and anything on December 13. It will also affect the openers on Christmas week (Wreck-It Ralph and Breaking Dawn Part 2 are having special screenings the weekend before). How this month turns out will depend on The Hobbit. It really will. Should it disappoint a lot, Twilight, Jack Reacher, CZ12 and the other Christmas offerings will survive but otherwise, I see a lot of muted grosses for the rest and a huge sum for The Hobbit. I can't see The Hobbit making anything less than 10m though. These ticket prices are no joke and I think it's possible The Hobbit could take down The Avengers opening weekend gross despite Christmas being around the corner.

Les Miserables seems to be on an island of its own but it too will feel effect of The Hobbit. December 27 week looks really weak so holdovers will pounce on the new films.

Cool, thanks. I think I might come over and do a triple-header:

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2
Jack Reacher
Wreck-It Ralph

The Hobbit, I can wait for in January when it's released on the mainland.

Francois Ozon's "In The House" opens Dec 6 or Dec 27?

Wong Kar-Wai's "The Grandmasters" has moved to Jan 8, 2013 to coincide with its China's release.

I think there's a good chance CZ12 (Chinese Zodiac) will be another Jackie Chan starrer (following 1911 and The Karate Kid) to bomb hard in Hong Kong.

Les Miserables will be very big, $4 3 mil+ big.

I wonder how "Seal Team 6: The Raid on Osama Bin Laden" made it to the release schedule. A prelude to Zero Dark Thirty?

Seal Team 6 looks atrocious. Bombs away for that one.

CZ12 will not bomb, in my opinion. It looks like a big release and back to the Jackie Chan of old with stunts aplenty. I think it will do well here in China. Not remarkably well, but good enough, maybe $20-$30m. It's a holiday picture too, so that should add some.

Both. Dec. 6 is limited release but it will go wide on Dec. 27.

I'm thinking only 2m at this point. You can't really expect much from a movie musical even if its hot in HK right now.

I'm not sure about Seal Team 6 but it had nothing to do with Zero Dark Thirty coming out. There's not even a release date for ZDT yet.

You nearly had a heart attack when you saw the prices for it, didn't you?
When I first saw it, this was my first reaction. And then it turned into .

2013 Summer Blockbuster Schedule

Release Date	Movie Title
April 11	Oblivion
April 25	Iron Man 3
May 16	Star Trek Into Darkness
May 23	The Fast and the Furious 6
June 20	World War Z Evil Dead
June 27	Kick-Ass 2 Epic
July 4	Despicable Me 2
July 11	Monsters University
July 18	Turbo
July 25	The Wolverine
August 1	The Lone Ranger The Smurfs 2
August 8	Elysium
August 15	Planes
August 22	Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

Unscheduled:
The Hangover 3 (June)
Man of Steel (June)
After Earth (June)
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones (August)

Oblivion starts off the summer and its gross will largely depend on Jack Reacher's gross IMO. Tom Cruise is a huge draw here so it should be able to churn out a 2m gross. Iron Man 3 will hit at least 7m with 3D prices. Star Trek 2 gets a good release date this time. It will double the first film thanks to 3D prices. The Fast and the Furious 6 will be very interesting to watch. Fast Five grossed more than the rest of the Fast series combined so prospects for Fast 6 will be huge. 2.5m should be no problem for it after the good word of mouth from Fast Five. 3m might be a little iffy given the amount of solid new releases in June. The Hangover 3, Man of Steel and After Earth all have not been given concrete release dates yet, however, Hangover 3 will perform well. Hangover 3 is coming off the success of Hangover 2 and given that HK is not really a market for Hollywood comedies, Hangover 3 should still increase from the 2nd film. Man of Steel has a much better release date than Superman Returns but early June is usually the weakest time of the summer. Recently though, Prometheus dominated the first 2 weekends of June 2012 and X-Men: First Class also saw high returns so putting a high profile release in the first 2 weekends of June is not a death trap. Will Smith is another huge draw but we need to know its release date first before we can tell how After Earth will do. World War Z could be a major disappointment. Vampires are not a major draw in HK so I don't see how zombies will either. Worse still, it's going up against another zombie movie in Evil Dead the same weekend. Evil Dead won't do much since it's coming out against World War Z and HK is one of the weakest territories for zombie/horror movies. Kick-Ass 2 should increase from the first one. Kick-Ass enjoyed solid WOM and enjoyed over a 3x multiplier. Epic starts off the flurry of summer animation releases in 2013. It probably won't do well because it's not a sequel and there are much more high profile animation releases coming out this summer. It doesn't help that the next 3 weekends all feature fairly big animation movies. Despicable Me 2 is the follow-up to Despicable Me and while that had an OK gross, I can't get behind the sequel. Not only will it have to deal with animation releases left and right but it's in a July spot that is perfect for a big release. There's not a whole lot of summer dates yet but that will change. Monsters University will be the first of 2 animation releases that many are pinning their hopes on. Pacific Rim hasn't been scheduled yet but even if it does go day-date with US, Monsters University will be one of the big animation releases of the summer. After the flop of Brave, Pixar needs to get back on track especially given the downward trend the last couple of films. Turbo will bomb. I don't see this doing well since it's being sandwiched between MU and The Smurfs 2. The Wolverine will do well with a summer date. I see this making over 2m. The Smurfs 2 and The Lone Ranger will go head to head. The Lone Ranger doesn't seem like it'll make a lot since it's a Western but it's got Johnny Depp. The most likely candidate for #1 will be The Smurfs 2 since sequels usually increase and it was the only animation film of 2010 to squeak through with a good gross. 3m could happen. Elysium should do well even though Matt Damon isn't a draw. District 9 almost made 1m despite being released in the fall. I can't see Elysium doing less than 1m here. Planes should be a massive flop. I don't see this making more than $500,000. Percy Jackson 2 will deliver since the first one made 2m and had a 4x multiplier. The Mortal Instruments is an uncertainty until we know its release date.

We can always get to a cheap Saturday morning screening of The Hobbit, or Tuesdays (cheap all day)

With 4 days to go, The Hobbit is eerily quiet so far. I think beating The Avengers OW is out of the question at this point. The best it can do is 3.5m if it picks up heavily with walk-ins. Ticket prices for The Hobbit are almost double ROTK's so it doesn't have to be competitive in admissions that much to garner a very strong gross.

The average ticket price in 3D (HFR or non-HFR) is about $105-$110 HK ($13.50-$14.20 -- factors in morning show as well). 2D showings have not been scheduled yet.

	Weekend Estimates			December 6
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Life of Pi	$700,000	-37.8%	$4,005,000
2	My Sassy Hubby	$375,000		$380,000
3	Cold War	$170,000	-53.3%	$5,295,000
4	Back to 1942	$155,000		$155,000
5	Code Name Geronimo	$63,000		$63,000

Life of Pi held great once again. Despite the new challenge from My Sassy Hubby, WOM continued to be very strong, carrying Saturday and Sunday to exceptional holds of below 35%. Saturday was its best day in admissions but Sunday was its best day in % as it fell only 34%. It widened the gap between itself and My Sassy Hubby through the 4-day period. It lost to My Sassy Hubby on Thursday, won by over 5,000 admissions on Friday, strengthened its hold by less than 10,000 on Saturday and defeated Hubby by over 10,000 admissions on Sunday. It will pass 4m either on Sunday or Monday depending on actuals.

My Sassy Hubby had a good opening with over a $10,000 PSA this weekend. While WOM doesn't look too optimistic, its first weekend showed signs of strength. 80% of admissions were from walk-ins and it beat Life of Pi 3/4 days with only walk-ins.

Cold War had a glass half-full/half-empty weekend. It depends on your view here. My Sassy Hubby was the local's top choice this weekend but Cold War dropped only 53% yet it still dropped 53% despite My Sassy Hubby not being a big grosser and the difference in genre. Cold War will pass 5.4m although I think 5.5m is out of the picture.

Back to 1942 was solid, if a bit mediocre. Period drama is a bit different from all the other major films this week so it took advantage.

Seal Team Six: The Raid on Osama Bin Laden (Code Name Geronimo) pounded softly. It had a low Saturday/Sunday, like Killing Them Softly last weekend. Will leave most theaters next week.

Shame about Back to 1942, it's a really good film. It seems, with this film anyway, that Hong Kong tastes are similar to the US.

It didn't do that horribly. Its opening weekend is not bad considering it only showed on 21 screens (could be 21 theaters as well).

5m for Life of Pi is not assured. 4.5m is but 5m is not because Life of Pi will lose at least 60% of screens to The Hobbit. It could be 75% in some theaters if they schedule both 2D and 3D for The Hobbit and depending on individual theater chains. Ex: Cold War will likely get the nod over Life of Pi in EDKO theaters. December 20 will knock down Life of Pi again despite Christmas weekend. It should lose another round of screens that weekend and could be knocked out completely if Jack Reacher and Breaking Dawn Part 2 remain competitive.

Oh really? Sorry, I didn't even check its screen count. I just saw the total and it reminded me of how much it made in the US on opening. It made $100k from 20 screens, which isn't anything remarkable, but it is respectable. China is where the real business is with that film. Have you seen it yet, Bluebomb? or will you?

No. I have no real interest in these kinds of movies unless if there's something that intrigues me about it. I watched Aftershock in theaters and loved it but after seeing the trailer for this, I didn't want to see it.

Life of Pi is actually losing showings to My Sassy Hubby which is a surprise. Didn't expect that to happen. Could be close to 70% screen loss for Life of Pi now since My Sassy Hubby is getting the last 7 PM showtime over it at 2 theater chains which is weird. I definitely don't understand the rationale on that one. Will check again tomorrow to see if UA reflects this or gives Life of Pi the last 7 PM showtime.

Monday admissions
My Sassy Hubby actually increased from Thursday and built a bigger gap between itself and Life of Pi. Life of Pi fell 28% from last Monday.

The Hobbit will take up 3-4 screens this weekend while Life of Pi, My Sassy Hubby, Cold War, Back to 1942 and other extraneous films will share the remaining 1-2 screens. Full schedules will be up later.

December 6 Weekend Actuals

1. Life of Pi - $4,044,322
2. My Sassy Hubby - $413,705/$417,376 (weekend actual)
3. Cold War - $5,300,082
4. Back to 1942 - $159,616 (weekend actual)
5. Seal Team Six: The Raid on Osama Bin Laden (Code Name Geronimo) - $65,895 (weekend actual)

Others
Skyfall - $4,759,979
Red Dawn - $180,987
Rise of the Guardians - $307,267
Love in Time - $273,602
Killing Them Softly - $124,117

Life of Pi and My Sassy Hubby were adjusted up from estimates. Despite the upward adjustment for Life of Pi, 5m is still uncertain. My Sassy Hubby had a very good weekend. Cold War slid about 52% from last weekend. 5.5m is up in the air. Back to 1942 posted a decent gross. Seal Team 6 struck out.

Skyfall will hit 4.8m before leaving theaters.