...lol, I'm not pretending to know what a psycho would do, but I still find your argument absurd. If someone truly feels that they're risking their life seeing a movie, they're not going to see either one. I don't know if you, personally, want to die in TDKR over Ted, but I'd prefer neither. If I'm worried about it, I'll stay away. And I'm sure anyone who even remotely thinks this way will pick neither. That's why it makes NO sense that comedies are hurt the most.

And yes, it would be more tragic if it happened in Ice Age 4 considering that it'll be majority kids, but considering that it did happen in TDKR and that is the biggest movie in the country (hence more likely to have packed houses over Ice Age 4, which will be making about 1/7 of TDKR this weekend) aaaand the few reports of copycat attempts have all been associated with TDKR, don't you think TDKR is the one that's most affected and at risk?

Again, I'm just not seeing your point. At all. And for the record, I do think kids movies take a big hit here. Families are going to be the most cautious, that's for sure. But movies like Ted? The Watch? No. They'll be affected, yes, but that's just because EVERY movie is going to be affected. But if you're really going to break down which movies are going to be more affected, you cannot honestly believe that TDKR won't be because you believe people would rather die watching the #1 most anticipated movie of 2012.

I want to die watching Step Up Revolution.

Why not choose a Sandler or Kevin James movie to die in?

Hey, fuckface, my prediction is that it would have beaten The Avengers and had a shot at Titanic. Look at you, trying to make me out to look like the guy who is flipping out over nothing but I write one small little sentence about a BO prediction, and then you piss yourself, write a paragraph quoting things I never said... Who's really flipping out?

And btw, with those midnights I was thinking 93/61/56, which is a 210 OW and btw, beats TA by 30M with TDK's legs.

I don't want to die either, and I don't think I was risking my life, as I'm sure most people thought this weekend. People had it in the back of their mind, but it still was a freak occurrence. As I said earlier, the people most affected would be in Colorado.

Also I said that TDKR was the most impacted film this weekend. I said it made up about half, but the only reason is because 7% is still over 10 million. My point is the film still had many more pros to seeing the film then any other film in the top 10, despite it being where the shooting took place. When tragedies hit, people often go to the movies. When a mass shooting in a theater happens, people go to a water park. There the only danger is someone takes a piss in the water next to you. Ted and the other films suffer even greater because escaping from a theater massacre INTO A THEATER is just about the dumbest thing I've ever heard. That's why other films were impacted more than TDKR % wise and not exactly money wise.

lol, this guy is absolutely hilarious.

posted elsehwere:

Also for the doubters, do you guys know how down to a science they have the estimates?

By 11 AM west coast time, based on pre-sales, real in depth tracking, midnight showings, early east coast returns, and theater habits, studios can estimate where the films Friday is heading with startling accuracy. How do you think we get such accurate Sunday estimates...on Sunday morning?

Point blank, I feel like there needs to be no further evidence. When the
-HOLLYWOOD REPORTER is saying early on that it is heading for 85-90 million Friday
-Normally low baller Gitesh Pandya says "Super early to know for sure, but source tells me #TDKR now heading for possible high 80s FRI incl midnights"
-When Nikki reports Friday afternoon that it is on pce for "high 80s at least"

These people know their stuff. Nikki is an bitch, but the studio execs have this down to a science. When these are the real time box office estimates based on REAL results...and then the real number turns out to be 75 million? There is only one explanation.

Everybody saying this movie only missed out on 5-10 million, or that the Friday gross would not have topped 80-85 million without the shooting...is basically saying they know more about the box office than the people mentioned above.

Which, for obvious reasons, it complete laughable, nonsensical bullshit.

It is the strongest guess that can be made. Without the shooting, we are looking at least 85 million on Friday, and 180 million for the weekend; i would say those are conservative numbers.

The problem is they are less accurate when it comes Midnights to the rest of the day. Midnights have always been unpredictable. There is no set science for them. I think it could have hit 78-82 on the midnight number, but 180 is just too close to the admissions record to be considered all that truthful. I think 175 seemed more like it when it came down to it. Once the 75 million number or any number comes out on Friday, everyone has a good idea where it will head, not just the studio.

So my 89 OD/195 OW prediction was pretty good.

Thats right, TDKR will be most effected. So too will family/kids films in the short term.

The Internet psycho/terrorist has stopped posting. Did someone ban him?

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/en ... 7006.story

That number could have been higher the previous days covering the weekend. If 25% of moviegoers opted out last weekend the box office lost appoximately $75m, since 75% of $298.7m is $224m. The 25% could have disproportionately affected TDKR. If it was proportionate, TDKR potentially lost $53.8m over the weekend.

I have no idea what this weekend is supposed to be, but if it was supposed to be $150m, then it comes in around $120m-125m as the reluctant numbers drop. I think much of the loss from reluctant moviegoers comes out of TDKR and $50m is questionable at the moment.

Horrible.

Serious question, where does WB go from here? There is clearly a large audience of people who are interested in seeing the film & pre shooting were planning on seeing the film who have NOT seen it yet, and may not ever see in theaters. How does W.B. go about trying to reacquire that business? For example, does anybody think we see the biggest theater expansion ever sometime in September/October? Or a large scale rerelase next spring?

TBH, they would have to come up with an entire new marketing campaign to remind people WHY they wanted to see it. Trailers spending the first minute-90 seconds going over BB & TDK and then showing off the ending of the trilogy or something. It is just crazy.

There is literally going to be 100s of millions of dollars in untapped business by the time the current run ends, they have to make some effort to reacquire it.

Where do they go from here? They release it on DVD/Blu-ray, and people catch it up with it at Redbox.

EPIC. EPIC. THE FIRE RISES.

Current run? Hmm. Well, apparently the anxiety tapered off by a fifth in the last week. Maybe in a month they can give it a boost when that anxiety is gone?

Bleh, horse is already out of the stable. Good thing for them it is kicking ass overseas. Maybe this will end up being huge in home video rentals from all the people who decided to skip it after the shooting.

Idk, it is worth the investment. If WB can make a big enough deal of it, expansions in the fall and a rerelease next spring could make up for some of it, perhaps 50 million+.

Its certainly conceivable to me that expanding back into 3,000+ theaters and rebooting the marketing for a mid september expansion could notch another weekend with 20 million+.

Oh, please.

I really doubt a rerelease would happen. It'd present significant communication issues.

Seeing how frontloaded TDKR is being, I'm quite sure it wouldn't have beaten Avengers. And I'm not sure it would have beaten TDK either. Around $500M seems about right. Because of the shooting, it will be about $75M less than that.

Excel stop trying to be funny. There is no way this is going to re-release in the current set of circumstances. How do they know if they put that much effort people will come back to see this movie in theaters? There are times that people won't change their minds about stuffs and this suits right into that category.

Some of that frontloaded appearance is due to other factors. I think if people are returning to the theaters they are seeing another film and not TDKR. If 20% of the audience has returned since Monday, TDKR got a very small percentage of that returning audience. It is having to do these numbers missing parts of its audience. I think the female audience is down, and I think the over 25 audience is also much smaller than TDK. It is why some films even with good wom do not have very good legs, because they are only using some of the four quadrants. TDKR needed all four quadrants, and it is not getting them at full strength.

There are only so many under 25 males and females, and over 25 males and females. TDK made $158.4m. It made $79.2m from over 25 and $79.2m from under 25. It made $82.4 from males and $76m from females.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2504&p=.htm

TDK OW

M>25: $41.2m
M<25: $41.2m
F >25: $38m
F<25: $38m

If TDKR overperformed in a certain area, it was most likely males under 25. What that did is it burned up demand in that demographic, but the other demo's are staying away. There is very little to pick up the slack. It makes the film look much more frontloaded that it would under normal circumstances. The shooting made the film more like ROTS or an HP film when the previous film was like a POTC, Avatar, and Avengers type film.

Re-release is just not going to work in this day and age. If people want to wait, they will wait until they can see it at home.

The same. I think the weekdays would not be so frontloaded otherwise. I know you could take that the other way, well you could try to connect any pattern to what happened, but it's pretty consistent with some other sequels and such and I would guess it would hold a bit better if there were an effect.

I'm still generally disappointed by the run.

TDK BTW maxed out any potential audience for good holds. This one was bound to be much more frontloaded.