I wouldn't have been surprised to see a similar pattern (though obviously less exaggerated) emerging in TDKR's BO run without the tragedy.

But is TDKR the only movie being affected by it, or is it the entire box office? I guess we'll find out this weekend.

I knew it would drop around 25%. Tuesday number was inflated.

The whole box office will be affected, but TDKR a bit more. I think there's sufficient evidence that the box office was affected last weekend too.

Recall that people in small podunk towns all across America bought gas masks, duct tape, and shotgun shells after 9/11. People do not react rationally in the wake of terrorist attacks close to home. It's not easy to blame them though.

Good thing that it's kicking butt overseas.

Hey on the other hand it is still $200k up from TA's first Wednesday.

That's usually a line we reserve for movies like Battleship...

Well, at least it beat BATMAN BEGINS' total in 6 days...

And when TDKR increases 30-40% Friday, compared to Avengers 136%, the Wednesday comparison won't mean anything. Right now I see a worst case/best case of 44-68M for the weekend, which makes my prediction 56M. That's a 65% drop.

With all the extra variables to consider, it's really difficult to predict though. People's attitudes after the shootings, media saturation, Olympics. We'll see.

With a 2nd weekend drop in the 60%s, I think we can say that even without the shootings, TDKR would have dropped 55% at best, maybe even 60%. So it it wouldn't have passed Avengers and maybe not even TDK.

haha, except this one still has a good shot at $400m domestic. Battleship was a flop here. TDKR is looking at $600m or more overseas, which is really good for a 2D Batman movie. Never would have thought the character could blow up like that in foreign markets considering just 7 years ago it only made $166m overseas.

We really cannot gauge the hype and publicity that was lost after the shooting and over these weekdays. Cause if the movie really did break admissions record it could have beaten TDK's weekdays simply because of the HUGE Sunday. Though I still don't see how it could have beaten TA in the end but I do think it could have been close to TDK's total in the end.

No, it wasn't going to hit even $500m, never mind reaching TDK.

Personally I feel that TA, TDK and THG were so big because people got impressed by their humongous unexpected OW number and went to see what all the fuss was about. The same would have been true had TDKR been big enough over OW, though we will never know.

I'll reserve judgement until I see Thursday numbers.

Jack there is no point comparing to TA numbers unless we were outside of the summer.

Yes it is cause we are INSIDE of summer

TDKR's whole run has been derailed by Friday's events. It stopped running ads (I think they resumed on Tuesday) over the weekend and suspended reporting b.o. numbers until Monday. All of thoses types of light positive feedback for the movie were lost. It lost some viewers over the weekend which meant less sellouts which lowered spillover business on Saturday and Sunday, then into the weekdays. The whole normal buzz of trying to score a ticket and the film being an event disappeared immediately.

Mostly hardcore (moviegoers that see a film on avg once a week) movie fans saw the film. Less frequent moviegoers or those that were on fence are not hearing as many good things about the movie as when TDK or TA opened. Let's assume a person needs to hear 3 good reviews from acquaintances before being moved to see a film. He may not get that quota from this film, because not as many people that normally would see it have seen it. Or they may not be talking about it like they normally would, because people may self censor their discussions of the film. Someone's quota of 3 good recommendations of the film might be increased to 5 for this film, because of outside events. Others may just never be moved to see this movie, when before last Friday they would have been open to seeing it.

Lastly, in comparison to 9/11, two companies United and American were targeted, and they were not specifically tied to the terrorists' plans. In this case, Batman and this film have been linked to James Holmes actions repeatedly by the media in a way that United and American were not. This film, on top of having weaker legs due to it being a sequel, has this albatross that makes it difficult to discern how much value to give to either factor. Somehow this film is behaving more like HP 9 than Nolan's Batman 3.

This exactly. The media is making it seem like if you go see this movie the exact same thing will happen to you. And that this Batman series is directly responsible for this incident.
Also, how can one say Dark Knight Rises caused this event, when it was only out for like what 10 minutes?

Not to incur anyone's wrath, but there's also the film itself to be consider. It's a very good film, but it's also three hours long (with around 25 minutes devoted to scenes including Batman), anxious, forceful, and grim. Even if people dig it, are moved by it, it might not be the perfect water-cooler recommendation, particularly not after the shooting.

It's more along the lines of The Hurt Locker or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo than "It's SO much fun! We loved it. You have to go see it!" films such as Bridesmaids or The Avengers.

I agree the film is very well made but it does not have the entertaining value.

The Joker provided a lot of this with his dark jokes and crazy antics.

The fact the suspect is obsessed with Batman (Batman merchandise in his apartment, a voice mail message delivered with Christian Bale's deep and raspy Batman voice, telling police he's the Joker) doesn't help. At the end of the day, it wasn't just a random movie.

I know. I've even said before it's incredible these thoughtful, lengthy, foreboding Batman crime dramas are playing in the same sandbox as Pirates of the Caribbean and The Avengers.

I still feel it's a point to consider, though, particularly considering The Dark Knight Rises is far heavier than the second film and, indeed, far shorter on scenes featuring Batman in action.