Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made?
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mdana
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 Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Thegun wrote: 5-7% for TDKR and 5-10% for the rest of the movies seems more likely
Simple facts:
A 30 million midnight in July would never lead to anything higher than 82 million. And that's ROTS multiplier 7 years ago, July is much harder. 36% is extremely generous for the midnights to overall weekend numbers.
Family films, comedies, and non event films seem much more likely to be skipped then TDK, despite the shooting taking place during that film. Would you want to go laugh at a theater? Take a bunch of small kids to a family film (One with terrible WOM at that)? Go to an artsy theater where all kinds of weirdos can be in? Or see the number one film of the year to a beloved film that you've been dying to see all year? Other films got hit a little harder because there was no reason to go to the movies other than not to see Batman.
Even with that, films dropped 55% on average against TDK, this weekend 56%. And the drops are not that ridiculous. Everyone knew Spiderman would get killed. Madea films always have terrible holds; concert films same thing. Poorly received animated sequels have dropped 55% before. And let's not forget that Moonrise kingdom lost almost 3 quarters of it's marketing, and has stopped increasing theaters. Ted's drop is a little high, but in all honesty,anyone who saw Ted would see TDKR opening weekend for sure.
5-10% is still 30,000 people a state that chose not to see TDKR Double that for the other movies out there and 60,000 people a state. That's still a lot of people.
I think it's kind of silly that people are really arguing the effect on here. The movie should be able to make it up with a better than expected hold next weekend, as people come back to normal. If it doesn't then, Ledger and less hype factor should really be the more deciding factor for TDKR's disappointment (And it didn't at all) Y'all are just trolling now. Uh that was a Thursday opening and SW films even with AOTC have been shown to be far more frontloaded. Next....
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:00 pm |
 
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redfirebird2008
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Mannyisthebest wrote: I think the 2d limited the film from going past 200 million.
Also we have one real number.
The 30 million Midnight and I do not see how that number gets over 200 million. It doesn't get it over $200m, but it LOCKS $175m and VERY LIKELY gets it over $180m. $200m would have required $35-40m at midnight, so that was a goner as soon as we got the midnight number.
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:01 pm |
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Thegun
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made mdana wrote: Thegun wrote: 5-7% for TDKR and 5-10% for the rest of the movies seems more likely
Simple facts:
A 30 million midnight in July would never lead to anything higher than 82 million. And that's ROTS multiplier 7 years ago, July is much harder. 36% is extremely generous for the midnights to overall weekend numbers.
Family films, comedies, and non event films seem much more likely to be skipped then TDK, despite the shooting taking place during that film. Would you want to go laugh at a theater? Take a bunch of small kids to a family film (One with terrible WOM at that)? Go to an artsy theater where all kinds of weirdos can be in? Or see the number one film of the year to a beloved film that you've been dying to see all year? Other films got hit a little harder because there was no reason to go to the movies other than not to see Batman.
Even with that, films dropped 55% on average against TDK, this weekend 56%. And the drops are not that ridiculous. Everyone knew Spiderman would get killed. Madea films always have terrible holds; concert films same thing. Poorly received animated sequels have dropped 55% before. And let's not forget that Moonrise kingdom lost almost 3 quarters of it's marketing, and has stopped increasing theaters. Ted's drop is a little high, but in all honesty,anyone who saw Ted would see TDKR opening weekend for sure.
5-10% is still 30,000 people a state that chose not to see TDKR Double that for the other movies out there and 60,000 people a state. That's still a lot of people.
I think it's kind of silly that people are really arguing the effect on here. The movie should be able to make it up with a better than expected hold next weekend, as people come back to normal. If it doesn't then, Ledger and less hype factor should really be the more deciding factor for TDKR's disappointment (And it didn't at all) Y'all are just trolling now. Uh that was a Thursday opening and SW films even with AOTC have been shown to be far more frontloaded. Next.... It was and 7 years ago and in May. Are you even trying? Potter did 49%, the twilight films 42-44%, 36% is very generous. _________________ Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:10 pm |
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mdana
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Nazgul9 wrote: mdana wrote: I have also mentioned I am open to the possiblity TDKR lost as little as $5-10m. Nice cherry picking. You used an arbitrary limit of $250m, I compared the increase to TDK since you seem to be limited in your imagination and wanting to set an extemely low artificial OW. Something in the range of $260m+ seems just as if not more reasonable as your preference for $250m. Your increase is even more arbitrary. Who's to say how much the weekend record increases?What you deem an extremely low artificial OW i do not, at all. $180m would be a new admissions record (or at the very least a tie with TA). You did with $250m. I pointed out it was not in line with previous record breakers. I played your game and you lost. You need to come up with better reasoning for your claims.
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:11 pm |
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mdana
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Thegun wrote: mdana wrote: Thegun wrote: 5-7% for TDKR and 5-10% for the rest of the movies seems more likely
Simple facts:
A 30 million midnight in July would never lead to anything higher than 82 million. And that's ROTS multiplier 7 years ago, July is much harder. 36% is extremely generous for the midnights to overall weekend numbers.
Family films, comedies, and non event films seem much more likely to be skipped then TDK, despite the shooting taking place during that film. Would you want to go laugh at a theater? Take a bunch of small kids to a family film (One with terrible WOM at that)? Go to an artsy theater where all kinds of weirdos can be in? Or see the number one film of the year to a beloved film that you've been dying to see all year? Other films got hit a little harder because there was no reason to go to the movies other than not to see Batman.
Even with that, films dropped 55% on average against TDK, this weekend 56%. And the drops are not that ridiculous. Everyone knew Spiderman would get killed. Madea films always have terrible holds; concert films same thing. Poorly received animated sequels have dropped 55% before. And let's not forget that Moonrise kingdom lost almost 3 quarters of it's marketing, and has stopped increasing theaters. Ted's drop is a little high, but in all honesty,anyone who saw Ted would see TDKR opening weekend for sure.
5-10% is still 30,000 people a state that chose not to see TDKR Double that for the other movies out there and 60,000 people a state. That's still a lot of people.
I think it's kind of silly that people are really arguing the effect on here. The movie should be able to make it up with a better than expected hold next weekend, as people come back to normal. If it doesn't then, Ledger and less hype factor should really be the more deciding factor for TDKR's disappointment (And it didn't at all) Y'all are just trolling now. Uh that was a Thursday opening and SW films even with AOTC have been shown to be far more frontloaded. Next.... It was and 7 years ago and in May. Are you even trying? Potter did 49%, the twilight films 42-44%, 36% is very generous. If it had the same muliplier as ROTS that is $93.4m. I didn't bother to correct your obvious error. ROTS made $16.5m midnights and $33.5m during the rest of the day. AOTC had a 3.4 OW multiplier after opening on a Thursday. ROTS had a 3.05. TDK opening 3 years after ROTS and 6 years after AOTC had 3.37 on a normal Friday opening. The Thursday opening negates to a degree the May/July differences. TDK had a better 52% male 48% female ratio than ROTS (58/42) or AOTC which would lead to a better general audience.
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:30 pm |
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Nazgul9
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made mdana wrote: I pointed out it was not in line with previous record breakers. There's no "in line", records have been broken by small and large sums. At least an argument can be made that around $250m might be about the max the market can handle. _________________
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:32 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Nazgul9 wrote: At least an argument can be made that around $250m might be about the max the market can handle. No, it can't. Without even taking into account inflation, the weekend of December 25, 2009 did ~$260m among the top 12. And that's during a time period when business is spread out over an entire week, to a far greater degree than any other frame.
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:37 pm |
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Gopher
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Early Friday afternoon BOG said TDKR was headed for a high 80s opening day. This is right when the shootings were initially being reported and before people really had a chance to respond.
If his early numbers were right (they're usually on target) and the weekend played out with the same drops TDKR had-
87.5m Friday (56.86m w/o midnights)
56.63m Saturday (-35.3%) (-0.4% w/o midnights)
50.68m Sunday (-10.5%)
194.8m weekend
It's obviously not a 100% direct translation- the Saturday drop would have been heavier with more walkups on Friday night- but 180m-190m was within reach.
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:43 pm |
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Nazgul9
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made "around $250m" covers $260m.
Admittedly, it's not the strongest argument, with the right movies it might go higher but as of right know, we hadn't had a bigger weekend than $260m.
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:44 pm |
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zingy
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Just thought I'd mention that, based on "history," comic book films have had better midnight-to-Friday multipliers than most fanboy-ish films. Correct me if I'm wrong, but out of all the major comic book films, TDK had the highest percentage prior to TDKR, and even that was "only" 27.5%. Avengers, Spider-Man, Green Lantern, Captain America, Thor, Iron Man, etc. all had much lower. 36% isn't "very generous" - it's roughly the maximum this would have had in a normal situation. So the 40% is much higher than it should have been. But let's say 35%. So $87.4m opening day, and using the same multiplier as what it actually did this weekend, $185.6m. 15.3% higher than this weekend's gross. I personally think around $190m, but I really don't see the argument for 5-10%. The opening weekend record and aggregated weekend record continues to grow all the time. It can handle more than $260m. But even $260m is 15% more than $225m!
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:51 pm |
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choubachou
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Thegun wrote: Family films, comedies, and non event films seem much more likely to be skipped then TDK, despite the shooting taking place during that film. Would you want to go laugh at a theater? Take a bunch of small kids to a family film (One with terrible WOM at that)? Go to an artsy theater where all kinds of weirdos can be in? Or see the number one film of the year to a beloved film that you've been dying to see all year? Other films got hit a little harder because there was no reason to go to the movies other than not to see Batman. I completely disagree with you. TDKR is (and was marketed as) a pretty dark and serious movie, in which a terrorist takes control of a city in order to destroy it, and kills tons of people. Apart from horror films, that's pretty much the last kind of film people would want to go see it after Friday's events. If people went to the movies at all, it would be to see more lighthearted stuff, to escape reality a little bit.
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:10 pm |
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redfirebird2008
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made choubachou wrote: Thegun wrote: Family films, comedies, and non event films seem much more likely to be skipped then TDK, despite the shooting taking place during that film. Would you want to go laugh at a theater? Take a bunch of small kids to a family film (One with terrible WOM at that)? Go to an artsy theater where all kinds of weirdos can be in? Or see the number one film of the year to a beloved film that you've been dying to see all year? Other films got hit a little harder because there was no reason to go to the movies other than not to see Batman. I completely disagree with you. TDKR is (and was marketed as) a pretty dark and serious movie, in which a terrorist takes control of a city in order to destroy it, and kills tons of people. Apart from horror films, that's pretty much the last kind of film people would want to go see it after Friday's events. If people went to the movies at all, it would be to see more lighthearted stuff, to escape reality a little bit. Completely agree. I said Friday morning that this would be a nuclear bomb against the film. It's a really bad combination of dark material in the film (numerous terrorist acts depicted in a completely serious manner) mixed with a screening of the film having a mass shooting with 71 people shot and 12 dead. The content and tone of the film will hit way too close to home for a lot of people out there.
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| Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:16 pm |
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Thegun
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Even so, anyone going to the movies this weekend, TDK was the number one choice.
The point is that family films, comedies, and art films would be hit even more. TDKR was still an event. Is it really hard to realize that people don't want to see films out for a few weeks that target children, the oddest of people, and people necessarily wont go to the movies to laugh. It seems really obvious to me.
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:22 am |
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The Dark Shape
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Thegun wrote: The point is that family films, comedies, and art films would be hit even more. TDKR was still an event. Is it really hard to realize that people don't want to see films out for a few weeks that target children, the oddest of people, and people necessarily wont go to the movies to laugh. It seems really obvious to me. And it seems really obvious to me that if people don't want to go to the movies because of mass murder in a theater, they'd probably hesitate the most at seeing the movie the killings took place in when it's name-checked during every story on the news.
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:43 am |
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Excel
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made I see no way it lost a penny less than 35 million for the weekend, myself.
Friday:
-The 30 million in midnights + very strong friday presales make think the film was heading for 60 million during the Day friday. It did about 45, hence I think it lost $15 million in business on Friday. Avengers midnights accounted for about 23% of opening day, in May. Potters accounts for about 48% in July. I think TDKR would have fallen somewhere in the middle, probably around 33-34%, or right around $90 million flat.
-The Dark Knights Friday gross adjusts to 54 million. RISES had less competition, 2,000 more screens, and much higher tracking/anticipation. RISES selling $6 million more dollars worth of tickets than TDK on opening day seems highly probable.
-Granted, I think 90 million pretty much erases any shot at the record. But that is 15 million it missed out on.
Saturday:
-Friday to Saturday was pretty much the same. I think following the huge opening day, it drops a tad to 55 million. The night screenings are just slightly less busy,but the day time showing stronger. 55 million = 10 million it misses out.
Sunday:
-Continues Saturday trend. 50 million. Another 10 million.
No shooting, I think we get 90 + 55 + 50 = 195 million opening weekend. No 2d film will touch it for a long time, easily the admissions record. Headed for 700+.
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 1:13 am |
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choubachou
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Thegun wrote: Even so, anyone going to the movies this weekend, TDK was the number one choice.
The point is that family films, comedies, and art films would be hit even more. TDKR was still an event. Is it really hard to realize that people don't want to see films out for a few weeks that target children, the oddest of people, and people necessarily wont go to the movies to laugh. It seems really obvious to me. Of course TDKR was the #1 film, and of course tons of people went to see it anyway; otherwise it would have grossed $25M, not $161M. But the point is that a considerable chunk of its potential audience did not go see it. People who REALLY wanted to see it went. People who kind of wanted to see it, didn't go. And remember that a long-standing theory as for 2002's Spider-Man's success was because of 9/11. People wanted a movie to escape reality, not a movie that reminds them how shitty the world is.
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Last edited by choubachou on Tue Jul 24, 2012 1:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 1:31 am |
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Excel
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Yep. 160 million ow shows that it had a huuuuge floor. That is where that "98% first choice" or whatever in tracking flexed it's muscles.
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 1:33 am |
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DonNiam-TheStingray
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made It would've made around 185m. Just like I said it would. And you bozos laughed in my face with your ridiculous +200m predictions. 
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 2:25 am |
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Jack Sparrow
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made As my first post it lost about $35m-$40m for a total of about $195m-$200m.
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:58 am |
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zingy
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Thegun wrote: Even so, anyone going to the movies this weekend, TDK was the number one choice.
The point is that family films, comedies, and art films would be hit even more. TDKR was still an event. Is it really hard to realize that people don't want to see films out for a few weeks that target children, the oddest of people, and people necessarily wont go to the movies to laugh. It seems really obvious to me. This seems so backwards to me. So the people who are afraid to go to the movies because of the shooting would opt to see a movie about a guy taking over the city and killing innocent people? Or would they see a light-hearted film? And also, would they prefer to see the movie where the shootings took place? Or another? AND logically, if another copycat shooting were to occur, would it be in The Dark Knight Rises or freakin' Ice Age 4? Be real.
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 9:15 am |
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Psilocybin
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made zingy wrote: Thegun wrote: Even so, anyone going to the movies this weekend, TDK was the number one choice.
The point is that family films, comedies, and art films would be hit even more. TDKR was still an event. Is it really hard to realize that people don't want to see films out for a few weeks that target children, the oddest of people, and people necessarily wont go to the movies to laugh. It seems really obvious to me. This seems so backwards to me. So the people who are afraid to go to the movies because of the shooting would opt to see a movie about a guy taking over the city and killing innocent people? Or would they see a light-hearted film? And also, would they prefer to see the movie where the shootings took place? Or another? AND logically, if another copycat shooting were to occur, would it be in The Dark Knight Rises or freakin' Ice Age 4? Be real. Yup. Would have easily beaten Avengers and contended for $700M. Now thanks to fucking nut jobs $500M is starting to look like it might not even be reached. 
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:36 am |
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Jack Sparrow
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Your predictions means the truth? People were going insane with midnight numbers and the only numbers before shooting were not where most of us were predicting and there was MASSIVE tracking numbers supporting those $40m-$50m predictions. I don't think TDKR would have done THIS bad but $200m OW and beating Avengers was NOT a lock.
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:42 am |
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Psilocybin
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made Bitch did I say my prediction was marshall law or something? The hell is wrong with you? Hop off already, god damn.
As someone else had said a few days ago, TDKR was basically going to be like a hybrid of presale juggernauts like Potter/Twilight and walk-up blockbusters like TF2/SM, etc. There was nothing wrong at all with the $30.6M midnight number, shit just OBVIOUSLY hit the fucking fan right after that given that it sold over 20% less tickets than TDK on Friday alone.
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:48 am |
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Jack Sparrow
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made If you know a little about BO then massive midnight numbers leading to $30m midnights does not translate to $100m OD and I would say the max we were looking was $90m OD with that. $57m Saturday and $52m Sunday with TDK drops (which was the best case scenario after burning too much of initial demand). This equates to $199m but for argument sake let's put it at $200m so how is that LOCKED to beat Avengers and pass $700m with that number? LOCK is something that is a certainty even if we had made $35m midnights I would have agreed upon this being VERY LIKELY still not a lock.
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:56 am |
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Thegun
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Re: Serious discussion: What Would Batman Have Normally Made zingy wrote: Thegun wrote: Even so, anyone going to the movies this weekend, TDK was the number one choice.
The point is that family films, comedies, and art films would be hit even more. TDKR was still an event. Is it really hard to realize that people don't want to see films out for a few weeks that target children, the oddest of people, and people necessarily wont go to the movies to laugh. It seems really obvious to me. This seems so backwards to me. So the people who are afraid to go to the movies because of the shooting would opt to see a movie about a guy taking over the city and killing innocent people? Or would they see a light-hearted film? And also, would they prefer to see the movie where the shootings took place? Or another? AND logically, if another copycat shooting were to occur, would it be in The Dark Knight Rises or freakin' Ice Age 4? Be real. Or wouldn't it be even easier, more tragic, and unexpected that a copycat went into Ice Age 4 and killed 20 families. I can't go inside the mind of a psycho, just like no one else can go on here. Everything about this is backwards. But I know If I was going to risk my life to go to a movie, it be the #1 most anticipated film of the year, not fucking TED (And I thought Ted was amazing) It's one thing to go to a movie with your friends, but if you're taking you're kids to the movies or parents to see an arthouse film, you're responsible for everyone. I'd be much more hesitant. _________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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| Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:04 pm |
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