Whoa 70 million? That's only 40 million for they day.!! I think it was really affected by the shootings but this should cause its legs to be better, I think.


P.s. I kinda wish BKB was here to enjoy his moment.! Where ever he is, he is the happiest Marvel fan out there.!

Still early. It will probably behave very differently than expected. I still think $175m+ is in play.

Though it doesn't surprise me that even without what happened this weekend, without the Ledger effect, the $200m+ predictions were way too optimistic.

It has a good chance of at least matching TDK's overall multiplier thanks to the slightly depressed OW, but time will tell.

The situation continues to be surreal. In my 15 or so years of closely following box office, I don't think anything like this has ever happened before (i.e. grosses not being reported for the weekend).

If TDKR does come in a little lower than anticipated, I think we can certainly state that yesterday's events played a role.

Opening day around 77.2 million

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

so it made around TDK numbers no Friday

so best case situation is around 170 million for the weekend.

Tragedy or not, no one can spin this into a disappointment. If the numbers are lower than your expectations, fine. But $170M is excellent.

yep

I don't think the film will increase a lot today.

Could increase to like 52 million today or something at best.

Studios and tracking sources not releasing numbers might be an attempt of damage control as they try to reduce publicity in order to stay away from any association between the tragedy and the movie or moviegoing in general.

I think this what happened yesterday.

TDKR did well in big cities on the East and West Coast....

Middle America stayed home and God knows what happened in Canada...

I don't think middle America "stayed home." That's an awfully general assumption to make considering we won't even have concrete numbers until the weekend has passed. I think there were just widespread instances of people feeling shaken and perhaps deciding to hold off a day or two or a week before venturing out.

Yeah it could be but I think the crowd reports from the East and West Coast were solid.

Rallax (guy on Boxoffice forums) who works at a theater in Texas said that it was way below expectations at his theaters.

In Canada business is the best ever in Imax but normal screens are not as busy as past openers.

With that number, an opening weekend below TDK is actually not out of the realm of possibility, which for me WOULD be disappointing. But how much the shooting kept people from heading out last night, or will keep them from heading out for a while, is questionable and will be hard to determine for a while. Either way, it's a really damn large number, and I don't expect the shooting to keep anyone from seeing the movie in theaters that had been planning to see it anyway. So in the end I'm pretty certain its final total won't be affected, but its opening weekend...might be hurt a bit. I guess we'll come to see.

77/170. Unbelievable. Worse than TDK inflation-adjusted. It might not even reach $500M.

yeah WOM is great but not at the all time level enjoyed by Inception and TDK.


So I think if some people missed it opening weekend they could just watch till after.

I think the tragedy is indeed affecting its Friday. Can it possibly recover on Saturday and Sunday?

well the thing is 77.6 million would be good if it got around 20 million in midnights

It would likley challenge 185+ million with ease.


Thing is Friday Business is around 47 million.
Lets say it pulls off a TA increase from today.. = 52 million and stays flat on Sunday
to 48 million.

So best case situation is around 178 million and I doubt that will happen.

I think it will actually get worse for the rest of the weekend. Friday's number was mitigated by pre-sales. I think a drop >40% is possible today.

I just find it stupid to not see a movie you wanted because of one fucking psychopath, who is already behind bars, and will likely die behind bars too. After the horrible terrorist attacks on Moscow subway, everyone still used it the very same day. Back then I was on my way to subway when I heard the news, along with many others. People were frightened, but didn't let any damn lunatics influence their lives, cause that's what those lunatics want.
And if it's out of respect for victims - you can't help them like this, if you want to help families, do something real.

Our friend RTH says 77 million is where it will land.


"So someone finally caved in and gave Nikki some data , even thought I was thinking 80 hours ago i wouldnt be at this point going above the 77

In brief TDKR was above TA in a few markets and quite a few it was just under, then there were ones with a bigger diff, in Canada Toronto TDKR was marginally behind TA,but Montreal bigger diff "

Blame Canada...

As always.

I don't believe this.

When Hunger Games opened, I had zero difficulty snagging decent seats at one of LA's nicest theatres (arclight dome).

I can't book a SINGLE seat to any TDKR showing...Dome or regular, IMAX or Liemax or not, that isn't in an uncomfortable row (ie, the first). Not just at the Arclight, too.

TDKR is also playing on more screens. Way more screens.

So I'm to believe it's playing marginally better than Hunger Games?

Anyway, it's hard to predict from here. Maybe people assume that the theatres are too packed and that's discouraging walk-up business. Many of my friends won't see it until mid-next week. Maybe it is Colorado. Honestly, I would think Colorado would generate more longer-term interest (it's publicity). But maybe people lose interest the longer they wait.

I could see a scenario where the film still tops $600m and another where the film doesn't hit $500m.

I think the total run will be hurt significantly as well (not necessarily completely lost, some may transfer to dvd rental or sales). it's not nexessarily that people are scared of being shot, but also that when they go to see a movie in cinema it's supposed to be esapist entertainment. but if tragedy is the primary association audience have with the film while watching it, then it will affect their whole mood and enjoyment of the film and iit hurts the WOM and repeated viewings.

This movie just lost a huge audience base of the casual non-fan who was on the fence of maybe watching it in theaters. even if this event itself didn't directly cement their decision, it will still be swayed by the less enthusiastic WOM from their friends who saw the film in an altered emotional state and cultural impact.

Right now my guess would be total domestic gross will be less than The Hunger Games.

There's another way of seeing this. People in general are indifferent to what this gunman wanted or not wanted. They just don't care (and why should they care?). They are in an unsettled mood from mourning the loss of lives in this traumatic tragedy. Opting to not see movies with a heavy subject matter is just a way to cope with their feelings. It's for their own good.

Heh - - that's the first time I've heard that one - - I like it!


(Now we just need a good derogatory pun for 3D.)

Call it Fee-D. Or just 'poop'

"I don't believe this.

When Hunger Games opened, I had zero difficulty snagging decent seats at one of LA's nicest theatres (arclight dome).

I can't book a SINGLE seat to any TDKR showing...Dome or regular, IMAX or Liemax or not, that isn't in an uncomfortable row (ie, the first). Not just at the Arclight, too.

TDKR is also playing on more screens. Way more screens.

So I'm to believe it's playing marginally better than Hunger Games?

Anyway, it's hard to predict from here. Maybe people assume that the theatres are too packed and that's discouraging walk-up business. Many of my friends won't see it until mid-next week. Maybe it is Colorado. Honestly, I would think Colorado would generate more longer-term interest (it's publicity). But maybe people lose interest the longer they wait. "


RTH said the film did better then TA in many markets but in some markets it was well below.

So it appaers on the West Coast it did fine.

nonetheless be sensible.

All epic openers sell out all shows on opening day...