My main concern about TDK is the Saturday drop will likely really hurt its chances at a record.

TDKR fell 30% from its Friday and this will likley stay flat from Midnights.

Of Course Sunday will help.

It could easily do 90,55, 50

Manny, those numbers are in fact almost exactly what I would guess with 35-40M coming from midnights. If it breaks Potter midnights then 200M is in play without question.

oh year the opening day record is beaten by a big margin then it should get 200 million as it will hold soo much better then DH2 over the weekend.


However it must be stressed TA made 126 million after Friday for the opening weekend.

If it breaks Potters midnight record, the OW is guarenteed to fall.

60 friDAY, 100m sat+sun seem to be the minimums i can imagine. Those plsu 45 in midnights would put it within 2m of the record; i cant imagine wb wouldnt fudge it over.

I don’t think it will do those numbers off a $90m OD (unless the midnights are out of whack like HP DH2). TDK did $53m adjusted for inflation according to BOM's yearly ticket price. Now the "avg." ticket price number that BOM uses is not adjusted for OW's when prices are full price not discounted as they are later in their runs. You can't use passes, coupons, etc. It also doesn't account for the bigger prices in the coastal urban/suburban cores of the movie audience for big openers. The numbers have inflated much more for opening weekends than what BOM is calculating with their ticket price “avg.”

Fun with Numbers-the Nolan Penultimate Palindrome Conundrum

His first "wide" release:

Memento made $25.5m over its entire domestic run.

His second wide release:

Insomnia made $20.9m OW and made $67.4m its entire domestic run.

His third wide release:

Batman Begins made $72.9m OW (5-day) and made $205.3m its entire domestic run.

His fourth wide release:

The Prestige made $14.8m OW (BB made $15.1m OD) and made $53.1m its entire domestic run (BB made $48.7m 3-day OW).

His fifth wide release:

The Dark Knight made $158.4m OW and made $533.3m its entire domestic run. TK’s OD was $67.2m (49.2m+18m midnights), so basically it made as much as Insomnia's entire run for the entire day, BB’s 5-day OW, or The Prestige's entire run if you didn't count midnights.

His sixth wide release:

Inception made $62.8m OW (essentially TDK's OD #) and made $292m its entire domestic run (TDK's 9-day total).

His seventh wide release:
The Dark Knight Rises will reuse some of these previous numbers like 62.8m OD minus midnights, or $229m OW. Unfortunately, I don’t know which ones.

A movie’s OD/OW functions as a reward or continuation of the previous film in the series. Since both TDK and Inception were extremely well received, TDKR should do around $60-65m on Friday minus midnights. It should do around $35-45m midnights. Most likely, it should do approximately $95-110m on Friday, $55-65m on Saturday (depending on the Friday total minus midnights), and $50-60m on Sunday.

Let’s punch in some likely numbers. I think these numbers are realistic due to the previous performances of the series and Nolan’s goodwill with movie audiences, $102.5m Saturday ($63.5m + 39m midnights), 60.3m Saturday (-5% drop), and $54.3m on Sunday (-10% drop) for a $217.1m total. My gut instinct thinks something like $110m Friday (max), $65m Saturday (Inception rose, and TDK dropped only 4% off midnights), and $59.2m Sunday for a $234.2m OW. However, that seems extremely unlikely without 3D. I am also unsure if the Friday midnight increase would destroy to some degree the outstanding Sat/Sun. holds the previous two Nolan films were able to achieve.

I have never been so certain about an OW record going down since I posted this on SM3 back when POTC 2 took the crown.



viewtopic.php?f=12&t=21734

Doesn't mean I'll be right.

Mdana = 100% correct, love the analysis, makes each one I've posted so far look half assed.

mdana, you didn't join my OW record club (possibly I've missed you, that thing's exploded in the last couple days), but you're not an honorary member. Great post!

Agree. Enjoyed reading that.

Is there data to support your 80/20 claim, or are you basing that just on the more general Pareto rule of thumb?

I would think that theaters matter a lot more for midnight shows that sell out right and left.

It's that and a figure I've heard several people say, including mark66. He's shown to have a good, fundamental understanding of the movie industry, so I trust him. It also makes plenty of sense logistically: a simple Fandango search will show you smaller theaters outnumber big megaplexes in the major metropolitan areas, and then there's all the smaller towns across the theaters that get, like, 5 screen theaters.

In the case of midnight showings, there was plenty of theaters that sold out 1-2 shows with Deathly Hallows 2, and that will obviously be a feeble amount in comparison to the ones that sold out 15-20. There's only so far the average joe is going to go out of the way to see it.

Impossible. Out

its not a club.

its not impossible.

BUMP

spread these facts far and wide so the doubters will eat even more crow come July 20.

This could certainly happen but I still think the crowd and rushing factor for TDKR is slightly lesser than HP8 even if it is higher than HP movies the 3D premium is not over its advantage. I want to be surprised if this happens rather than predicting it now.

Keep in mind that the data provided is ticket sales only, I did not use any dollar terms, unless to adjust to the equivalent gross.

Yeah but regardless of New Moon starting the midnight craze I think TDKR was fairly heavy midnight film. The amazing WOM just fueled the huge opening, plus to some factor Ledger's performance which came up as discussion point so far in India after the weekend [I stayed in India back then] as being one of the best Joker till date.

As for the ticket sales it is almost a sealed deal that TDKR will sell more tickets but I am still not 100% sure on $43m midnight record. I am still thinking high 30's which would be second best and way higher from Twilight sequels.

ROTS started the midnight craze. New Moon was a big step but ROTS is where midnights became a big number to track.

Sith and TDK posted huge midnights, and were strong proponents of the current craze but they got nothing on what came after 2008.

I think it could miss the record but I expect day business to be much busier.

DH2 midnights were huge but its day business was far less then New Moon, TDK, Spider Man 3 and TA.

Quote:

Will Harry Potter's midnights record be broken this year

Now looks like a lock,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

TDKR = 50m midnights

Well if Midnights are that big this will open more like a Hp film rather then like TDK ^^^

I think that would be sad.

Would like some daily records to fall again.

What if it gets the triple crown...Midnight, dailies & wknd....what if

Mid- HP7.2 43.5m
Fri- HP7.2 91m
Sat- TA 69.5m
Sun- TA 57m
Wknd- TA 207.4m

TA Saturday is too crazy large for tdkr to neat it

Yeah I agree even with a $100m OD I don't think TDKR will make $70m Saturday. The more I read reports the more I am getting confident that midnights are a big possibility for TDKR to beat.

Okay, I think The Dark Knight Rises is shaping up to be a bigger midnights event than expected. I think it has a shot at the record now. Right now, I have it at $38-40 million, but it could go higher.