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 March 30-April 1 Predictions 
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KJ's Most Embarssing Misspeller
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
no.

though it is VERY hilarious that HG could make more in its 2nd weekend than John Carter made in its entire run.

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:49 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Hunger Games - 70 (53% drop)
Wrath of the Titans - 34
Mirror Mirror - 16


Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:51 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
MTC? RS?

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:18 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
RS in March proved that they are worthless.


Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:25 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
MTC
37 wrath
26 mirror

That would be pretty good for both.
Yes, Wrath will have fallen steeply from it's orginial, but that wasn't well recieved plus the Hunger Games stole a lot of it's thunder. Plus, the studio is really banking on OS for this one.

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:31 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Thats good for both considering how THG is dominating. Hopefully RS comes in alot lower.

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:43 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Neither film will be hurt by HG that much. Wrath is mostly going for males, and while HG did play strong with males, its still under 40% of its base. And Mirror Mirror is going directly for the family demo.

All three films can co-exist.

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:45 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
I'm genuinely surprised by Mirror Mirror. It just seems so...silly? Ridiculous? And Julia Roberts hasn't been a draw in ages. Though I guess people are excited to see her go bad, or just for a new live-action family film.


Last edited by Jon on Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:55 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Yes especially with the empty marketplace (outside HG and 21). I was more referring to the fact that the buzz around the two new films has been largely drowned out by the THG media assault.

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:56 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Jon wrote:
I'm genuinely surprised by Mirror Mirror. It just seems so...silly? Ridiculous? And Julia Roberts hasn't been a draw in ages. Though I guess people are excited to see her go bad?



It does look silly. A big Snow White film in March though should do well. If Huntsmen opened in March instead (and there was no THG) - it would be huge. This is silly so its potential is limited - but there certainly is a market for this.

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:58 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
i don't know. I think Mirror Mirror looks kinda cute. I like the complete non-serious tone its taking.

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:01 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Jon wrote:
I'm genuinely surprised by Mirror Mirror. It just seems so...silly? Ridiculous? And Julia Roberts hasn't been a draw in ages. Though I guess people are excited to see her go bad, or just for a new live-action family film.


Ya fo real. I still don't see $20m+.


Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:12 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Quote:
V on HGAME competition: CLSH2 is expected in the $50 millions, according to some tracking services, SNOWH in the low-to-mid twenties






Posted by: Antibody on Mar 26, 17:46


http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118051936?refCatId=13

"Wrath" is expected to open in the $50 millions, according to some tracking services, "Mirror Mirror" in the low-to-mid twenties.

But aud interest has been skewed greatly over the past month by "Hunger Games," which gobbled up the majority of first-choice polling votes. Even on Monday, "Games" received 30% of first-choice votes -- characteristic of a film with huge B.O. scope.


Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:01 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
50m would be impressive for Wrath.

I see something between 35m-45m.

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:03 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
My gut tells me Wrath will open around $30m, maybe lower. Wasn't Ghost Rider 2 overtracked by quite a bit?


Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:56 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Magnus wrote:
i don't know. I think Mirror Mirror looks kinda cute. I like the complete non-serious tone its taking.


Same here. Looks really fun, IMO.


Even though I'm not interested in Wrath I'm still rooting for it to do well. 50 Million would be amazing.

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:00 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Promising tracking for Mirror Mirror.

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Mon Mar 26, 2012 11:26 pm
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Also from that same Variety article ;

"Titanic" is one of April's biggest B.O. question marks; early tracking for "Titanic 3D" points to a potential $40 million opening.

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Tue Mar 27, 2012 1:04 am
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
5-day? 3-day?

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Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:11 am
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Magnus wrote:
JC is looking at a 70%+ drop IMO unless Disney does some fudging.

21 Jump Street is the only film I see getting a solid drop this weekend and thats only cause the WOM for it is strong, theres no direct comedy competition this weekend, and it'll lose the least amount of theaters/screens. Lorax will lose a bunch of theaters/screens plus Mirror Mirror is direct competition, Act of Valor faces direct comp with Wrath, Project X will lose a lot of theaters/screens, and a Thousand Words just sucks.

However, the top 3 alone will make 120m+ so it should be a good weekend overall.


Act of Valor seems to be skewing a bit older and it was somehow able to withstand all competition os far, so it could actually have another sub-50% drop. A Thousand Words, John Carter, This Means War, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island and Project X will get killed.

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Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:01 am
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
John Carter is doing pathetically bad. I thought if Prince of Persia can get a multi of 3, so can this.

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Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:39 am
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Jon wrote:
I'm genuinely surprised by Mirror Mirror. It just seems so...silly? Ridiculous? And Julia Roberts hasn't been a draw in ages. Though I guess people are excited to see her go bad, or just for a new live-action family film.


It is silly, but the movie embraces the silliness.

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Tue Mar 27, 2012 11:10 am
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Don't know how to measure MTC vs V tracking but I think $37m for Wrath will be good and it has a potential to do more since there hasn't been much for younger males looking for pure action movie. The effect of first might be too big though.

Mirror Mirror has been tracking well for sometime now, it could do well even with THG being this huge and you never know it could hurt THG somewhat, but I wouldn't count on that.

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Tue Mar 27, 2012 11:22 am
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen should make an appearance in the top 10 this weekend. It's expanding to at least 400 theaters Friday. Should bring in 1.1 Million if not a bit more, which will likely be good enough to make it into the top 10. My predictions have the last three movies in the top 10 making around 1 Million each.

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Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:18 am
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Post Re: March 30-April 1 Predictions
Salmon Fishing is up to 448 theaters on MovieFone right now for Friday. 500 would be a good bet.

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Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:43 pm
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