In about a week Shack will be telling us all that We Bought a Zoo is a shoo-in for a nomination.

I hope The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo still ekes out a nomination here.

One of the biggest reason I think that The Help won't be a threat for the win (Outside of the lack of any indication of passion), is that the voters it's most likely to appeal to are exactly the ones that are going to make The Artist such a threat for the win. Usually if the early frontrunner is overtaken it's by something more friendly and to the Academy's tastes (Million Dollar Baby, Crash, King's Speech). The Artist already is very Academy friendly.

I really can't see it faltering right now.

Well, Million Dollar Baby overtook The Aviator, right? And I'm sure you'd agree that it was very Academy-friendly too, right?

It was, but I think MDB was ultimately an easier movie to digest, about 40 minutes shorter and was directed by a previous winner with a LOT of respect. It also ended up peaking at the perfect moment, with non-threatening-but-discussion-worthy controversy from Evangelicals So, I guess more a combo of being Academy friendly and perfect peaking, which I doubt The Help will pull off unless Viola Davis dies or something. Or anything else for that matter, except maybe War Horse, but I'm not even predicting it for the nod, so.

Well I did say longshot for MWWM. We know the academy's history loves movies like MWWM and Extremely Loud and hates ones like Tree of Life and Drive so I think that matters more than the critic's awards. MWWM also has 2 acting nominations and maybe some techs. Good for top 10 and an outside shot but not top 5 at this stage

I think Midnight in Paris and The Help joining The Artist/The Descendants/Hugo makes by far the most sense though with the SAG nominations (the best indicator we have so far)

Well, The Descendants has Clooney (the Academy loves him), Payne directing (he has won before, even if "only" for his screenplay) and seems up Hollywood's alley as well.

I have Moneyball over The Help because it has a Screenplay that is currently neck-to-neck the frontrunner for Best Adapted with The Descendants, directed by a previous nominee and has Pitt who might also win Best Actor.

Octavia Spencer

I think it has a great shot at both actress awards. People are underestimating Viola Davis. Although I think she can win at both the Globes and SAG, so maybe that'll change.

I have seen The Help and she was great in it. Better than she has been in Doubt, way better.

But how do you think can she win over Streep and Williams, both playing BIG real life figures. If they want to give an Oscar to an African American actor/actress this year, it'll go to Spencer.

*shrug*

Everyone always claims *this* will be the year Meryl wins an Oscar again, and I'm skeptical (The Iron Lady's somewhat tepid reception other than her performance won't help).

I do think Williams has a good shot. We'll just have to see. I've had a feeling in my gut since the summer that Davis is going to win that Oscar.

Er, I'd say Davis is certainly in the race. She has a fair shot at all of the three majors (BFCA, GG, SAG), especially if Streep doesn't get too much passion, since she's already won all three of those in the last four years.

Streep sure is getting a great push from Harvey. She's been on 60 Minutes, she's on the cover of Newsweek, etc. Weinstein is perfectly selling, "This is Meryl at her most powerful. Are you SEEING this? The accent! The makeup!" He's selling the performance in and of itself, as an event, separate from the particulars of the actual movie.

Yep. Saying she has "no shot in hell" is asinine, Magnus.



The Weinsteins also have to campaign Michelle Williams, though. I mean, if anyone knows how to work the Oscar circuit, it's obviously them but...Viola Davis also has Disney working for her. We'll see what happens with the televised awards.

I think Meryl and Michelle have a better shot than Davis. She'll be nominated for sure, but I'd say she's third on the list of likely Best Actress winners.

Davis' performance doesn't seem as "lead" as the other two. She also could've fit in Best Supporting Actress, had Octavia Spencer not been in the movie.

Michelle Williams is playing MARILYN MONROE. Meryl Streep is playing MARGARET THATCHER. Those are commanding lead roles. Davis shares a movie with Emma Stone.

The more I think of it, the more it becomes obvious that Hugo is NOT a lock

Mainly because The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Midnight in Paris and Moneyball are all looking pretty gosh darn good. It's not inconceivable at all to me that The Help, MiP and Moneyball just all get nominated and leave the visual heavy, possibly labelled too much of a kids movie rather than Academy one, as the lone BD. And after the Reader I don't want to count out Extremely Loud either.

Hugo could definitely be the lone BD that swaps BP with The Help, if the latter is set to not get BD. Midnight in Paris could do it too but with the SAG nom it's looking pretty darn good

This article http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/12/ther ... teve-pond/ projects 8 nominees.

That would make all the biggest players rather safe. I was expecting 5 or 6 though I forget the exact rules now

Considering how much Hugo is going to dominate the techs in addition to its locked Directing nod, I highly, highly doubt The Help, Moneyball or Midnight in Paris are ahead of it. Highly.

Not to mention the new rules favour passion voting, which Hugo will certainly get. I very much doubt any of the Best Director nominees have their film miss.

So to summarize: In ShackLand, Hugo is in trouble but Take Shelter is an awards beast to be reckoned with.

The only lone-Best-Director candidate in play, IMO, is Terrence Malick.

I think if Malick gets in, so does his film. Maybe not in the old days, but these rules would seem to benefit movies with lots of passionate support. Plus they're not limited to only five nominees.

I'm glad Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close seems to be out with its very mixed reviews. Will make more room for Drive to get in .