Same as for Best Picture, except that with five nominees it is easier to predict (in a way).

Tomas Alfredson (Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)

Tomas Alfredson
Andrea Arnold
Stephen Daldry
Terrence Malick
Alexander Payne

Daldry
Fincher
Malick
Payne
Spielberg

I have a feeling The Iron Lady is gonna suck big time. Probably because Mamma Mia! did.

I'd say Phyllida Lloyd is a long way from Stephen Daldry, at least as far as the Academy is concerned.

She's not in if it's just passable. Picture? Eh, maybe. Actress? Obviously. A nod for Broadbent? Perhaps. But Director would be a stretch.

I guess you're right. I shouldn't forget Hooper won last year, lol.

Unless War Horse is really, really well-received, the Oscars might just wait a year to see what Steven Spielberg does with his long-awaited Lincoln project. Now that seems like a guaranteed Oscar juggernaut. Also, unless The Girl with a Dragon Tatoo is considered a major improvement on the original, I think David Fincher might be shunned. Or maybe he'll be seen as owed a nomination after The Social Network debacle, either way it'll be political. I mean, somehow Christopher Nolan got a nomination for Best Screenplay and not Director when Inception was absolutely a director's movie... Last year really made me distrustful of this category.

Still, I'll guess
Alfredson... Replacement: Steven R. McQueen (only if Shame wins the Golden Bear and/or gets picked up by a phenomenally confident distributor)
Daldry
The director of The Artist or The Iron Lady: In Weinstein I trust.
Malick
Payne
Fifth spot is a toss-up. My guy is thatJ. Edgar will be Eastwood's strongest received film in awhile, as it's an extremely promising project with a script by Dustin Lance Black and Di Caprio as the titular legend. Possible veteran replacements are Spielberg, Reitman, or Cronenberg.

There's no way McQueen gets nominated here. This isn't the 70s.

I'm guessing Fincher wins Best Director and someone else wins Best Picture, at this point

Eastwood is out for sure. Doesn't anyone think Woody Allen might have a shot?

No.

It's too bad Alfredson seems to be out.

Allen has a good shot, I think. The Academy does LOVE him.

Allen has a shot. There's still a lot of question marks with the Spielberg, Fincher, Daldry, etc. films so the only two people who seem solidly in at the moment are Payne and that guy who directed The Artist. Plenty of room

Updated:


Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

I still wouldn't predict Refn myself. Yes, the critics are eating him up, but the Academy? I could honestly see Bennett Miller getting in before Refn, lol. Certainly Spielberg or Fincher.

Payne (The Descendants)
Scorsese (Hugo)
Hazanavicious (The Artist)
Nichols (Take Shelter)
Allen (Midnight in Paris)

I think the first 4 will be the strongest Best Picture players and Allen has the sentiment on his side

I'm not buying Tree of Life being a major player just because the critics awards gave it some love. ToL is exactly the type of movie that the AMPAs and critics are on completely opposite ends on. And I think they'll eat up Midnight in Paris

Take Shelter? Lol

Maybe Shack has no idea what Take Shelter is.

Could we see another split at last this year. I am thinking The Artist or The Descendants for Best Picture, but I don't see either of the directors winning.

Scorsese could get his second.

Or Fincher could finally win.

Not as silly, no. But somewhat, yes.

I'm with Magnus, I think Refn is in.

I think The Artist will take Director as well.