Hugo isnt in the game. Critics only seem to like the last 30 minutes. Plus, they only like it because it suddenly becomes "a movie about the magic of moviemaking" (whatever that means), and makes the movie journalist crowd feel like its talking directly to them. Like how adults liked the Shrek movies because it was full of crappy pop culture references that kids don't get. Except its more pretentious, clearly.

Make a kid's movie full of junk kids won't understand=make adults feel smart.

It's so arbitrary trying to predict nominees when we don't know the actual number of nominees, but my predictions for now include:

The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Gurus o' Gold 11/08 update: http://moviecitynews.com/2011/11/gurus- ... er-8-2011/.

Think they're underestimating TTSS.

I've read the book last year and that description is absolutely and completely spot on.

TTSS' problem seems to be a perceived coldness. Can be a brilliant, brilliant spy thriller, but it won't deliver the, "You is smart. You is kind. You is important" mawkishness.

J Edgar looks done and I am starting to doubt Leo getting nominated based on the reviews. The movie sounds like this years Nixon or Alexander.

On AwardsDaily someone say Extremely Loud and said it sucked, while another person said they had a friend that saw it and didn't like it

Take it with a grain of salt but it'd join a long list of "baity as fuck" films that didn't quite make it, although I did like the trailer more than I thought I would

That wouldn't surprise me, I thought the trailer kind of blew.

The Artist currently has a 9.0 average at RT with 32 reviews; crazy good.

I wouldn't write off Hugo as a BP candidate. It seems the kind of film the academy would love and the reviews are stellar.

The problem is going to be the films BO success or lack there of. How much should this movie make over the long weekend, given the 1277 theater count and heavy competition, to be considered acceptable?

$70 million looks about right, total, for a BP nom.

If The Artist doesn't win Best Picture, which it probably will, I think it could be War Horse.

The Artist won't win.

Are you sure? There isn't a front-runner at this point, and critics adore the film. Plus Weinstein is releasing it.

COME ON PEOPLE! I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR MONTHS THAT WAR HORSE IS GOING TO WIN!

Why do people still think that BO success has anything to do with the oscars? Didn't we settle that when The Hurt Locker beat Avatar? The oscars are about status within Hollywood. War Horse won't win because Speilberg has won before, and his last movie was Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.

Fincher and Alexander Payne are both "due", yet I doubt Hollywood will reward Fincher for his first big hollywood blockbuster. The Descendants it is!

The Artist it is, you mean.

Alexander Payne has immense industry respect, yet at the same time he seems trapped a bit within a certain niche. He turns out these warm, small, humanist dramedies, and everyone nods in approval, but there is always this roiling attitude of, "IS IT BEST PICTURE WORTHY?" The weight of months of being an Oscar frontrunner seems to crush these character-centric melancholy-vibes movies.

Agreed. It's going to be The Artist.

And Harvey, ever the master, is obviously handling The Artist perfectly. It'll stay small for a while. Big crowds in the cities. Let the National Board of Review, Golden Globe nominations, etc. happen. Then he'll let the air in a bit around the holidays. The upscale-adult suburbanites will have a chance to see this strange movie they've heard other people mention.

All the while fostering a narrative of, "This isn't Steven Spielberg. This isn't George Clooney. This isn't David Fincher and Sony Pictures. It's a small B&W silent film. It's art." Total underdog appeal. Which will go nicely with the whole vibe of all the over-40, largely Jewish affluent types (spend a day in Bethesda, MD) going to see it and finding it so very winning, so very elegant. Feeling proud of themselves for embracing "art," even if it is merely a crowd pleasing bauble in truth (as cynics have suggested).

Harvey will just nail it, and The Artist will win Best Picture and Best Director.

It seems like it will follow the release pattern of The King's Speech, at least up to a point. That too started in 4 theaters over Thanksgiving weekend. It added 2 more the following week. Though The Artist won't be in 700 theaters by Christmas. They are going for 250.

I think it varies in certain cases. I don't see how Bullock could have won for The Blind Side if it didn't make $250 m! For cases where it is close between competitors, box office can be a factor as well...

It is going to win Best Picture and Best Director.

Clooney is still the frontrunner for Best Actor, though, IMO.

So The Artist is The King's Speech and Descendants is The Social Network? Is that the meme this year?

I've seen neither movie.

Considering The Artist looks to be dominating the critics awards this year, it's certainly more The Social Network than The King's Speech. But I don't think any of the films matches up last year's lineup that well. In the end, The Artist is more likely to be The Hurt Locker of this year, or if it breaks out in a big way, the American Beauty or Schindler's List of this year.