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 Tintin Domestic Predictions 
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Post Tintin Domestic Predictions


Had a browse and curiously couldn't find any dedicated domestic Tintin topics, if I've overlooked one already in progress let me know.

I've got a good feeling about the domestic potential for this one. With the last trailer it looks pretty clear it'll be a spectacular. Provided the story has the goods the audience appeal will be broader than anything I can think of in recent years - even Avatar (however that won't necessarily translate to box office).

I'm seeing $300 million as a real shot, $350 million depending on buzz closer to release, and over $400 million if it's good enough to score more than 90% at rottentomatoes, has a super smart marketing campaign and insane word-of-mouth. Knowing Spielberg all of that is more than possible.

What do you think?


Last edited by Gamaur on Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:02 am, edited 3 times in total.



Sat Oct 22, 2011 3:08 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
Agree with you actually. This has certainly grown on me in recent weeks. I do think it can clear $200m, not yet sure of $300m. Auds certainly are wanting more original (read non sequel) fair so this should work.

BTW welcome back, last time you were here you predicted Avatar to be a monster hit.

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Sat Oct 22, 2011 4:50 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
I think it'll do good but i don't see it making much over $200m at best, while reviews are generally positive i think i haven't seen that many glowing ones (supposedly there are some pacing and character issues), at least that's the impression i got (granted, i only skimmed through a few reviews), and there are still weirdos that can't get over mo-cap.

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Sat Oct 22, 2011 9:06 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
28¢


Sat Oct 22, 2011 12:56 pm
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
$200 million.

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Sat Oct 22, 2011 1:38 pm
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
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Sat Oct 22, 2011 4:37 pm
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
There are a few factors that really lift the films potential, notably:

- The comic books have sold 350 million copies
- Universal appeal
- Uniqueness. Everything from the name, the genre cross-pollination, the visual style and potentially even the story are highly distinguishable.
- With Spielberg and Jackson at the helm, a high quality experience in all storytelling and technical areas is a near-certainty
- It looks awesome


Nothing is ever guaranteed, but whenever a film comes out with the above formula you can expect some big numbers.

What is guaranteed is that it'll be like Beatlemania for it in Europe, where the comics have had the deepest cultural impact.

But it will do well regardless of all that. Take The Polar Express for example; it lacks many of Tintin's merits and yet it would make about $210 million if it were released on 2011's ticket prices.

It'll be interesting to see how the marketing unfolds closer to December, but presuming it's effective I can't see any reason why this film won't make well over $250 million. My gut is leaning towards the high 300s.


Sat Oct 22, 2011 5:53 pm
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
The Tintin books are beloved all-time classics - - this Tintin movie is an abhorrent incubus.


Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:16 pm
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
Gamaur wrote:
There are a few factors that really lift the films potential, notably:

The comic books have sold 350 million copies.


But are virtually unknown in the States. I know what Tintin is. Nobody else seems to.

I'm putting it somewhere around 90. Unknown property plus an animation style that seems to turn audiences off more than anything. 20-ish opening with good word-of-mouth carries it to 90, maybe past 100. Makes an absolute killing overseas.

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Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:29 pm
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
Tron, Cars 2 and now TinTin, what's next on your hate without seeing it before?

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Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:22 pm
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
bryanbmp wrote:
Tron, Cars 2 and now TinTin, what's next on your hate without seeing it before?

If you're talking to me - - I would say that my hate has been very deservingly targeted - - my record speaks for itself.


Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:41 pm
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
The Dark Shape wrote:
Gamaur wrote:
There are a few factors that really lift the films potential, notably:

The comic books have sold 350 million copies.


But are virtually unknown in the States. I know what Tintin is. Nobody else seems to.

I'm putting it somewhere around 90. Unknown property plus an animation style that seems to turn audiences off more than anything. 20-ish opening with good word-of-mouth carries it to 90, maybe past 100. Makes an absolute killing overseas.


Yeah it's definitely less well-known in the states than abroad, but it's far from unknown. Remember those sales figures are over a 70 year period, so while some of your friends may not know about it there's a good chance their parents will.

If this only makes 90 million I will actually eat my own face.


Sun Oct 23, 2011 1:52 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
Gamaur wrote:
Yeah it's definitely less well-known in the states than abroad, but it's far from unknown. Remember those sales figures are over a 70 year period, so while some of your friends may not know about it there's a good chance their parents will.


My parents don't, and they're not exactly sheltered when it comes to popular characters and stories.

I get the feeling you're sort of imagining what Americans think as opposed to really having known people to judge by.

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Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:27 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
Who Is This 'Tintin' Guy Anyway?


"There's been some question as to whether or not Thor is a popular enough character to support his own live-action feature film. Let's be realistic -- people know who Thor is. Even if they don't know the comic, they know he's the Norse god of thunder, and, as far as I know, that's exactly what he is in the upcoming movie. In this particular case, Thor's individual popularity takes a backseat to the popularity of Marvel Studios and their product.

Of course, maybe I'm being naive because I grew up with Thor, the superhero. I can't imagine someone not having a vague understanding of who he is, based on centuries of existing mythology, whether they've cracked an issue of 'Journey Into Mystery' or not. Maybe I take Thor's public perception for granted?

Those thoughts lead me to 'The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn,' the 3-D mo-cap film based on a comic I've not only never read, but barely even seen on the shelves of American comic book stores. I know it's about a kid and his dog and that they go on adventures, but that's it. It looks old-fashioned and quaint to my eyes, like Jonny Quest meets Little Orphan Annie. I realize I could be 100% wrong about Tintin, but I think, in general, Peter Jackson and Steven Spielberg might be taking Tintin's U.S. popularity for granted.

Does it matter or are Spielberg and Jackson so big that 'Tintin' is a guaranteed hit, regardless of the character's American popularity? It's kind of a tough sell, regardless of the character's worldwide appeal. Kids' comedies do big business, but when animators try to venture beyond jokes into straight all-ages adventure, the box office usually takes a hit (take a look at 'Titan AE,' 'Treasure Planet,' and 'Atlantis: The Lost Empire' to name a few). The movies are often perceived as too adult for kids, too kiddie for adults, and almost always fail to find their audience.

That's a shame, because as progressive as adults can be for turning out in droves to see comedies like 'Despicable Me,' it still shows that animation is considered strictly lightweight entertainment. Animation should be perceived as just another way to tell a story -- any story. While all of Pixar's films are comedies, the best thing they've done for American animation is open the doors to the concept that the medium can illicit deep emotional responses, not just laughter. I feel like we're almost there -- almost to a place where theatrical animation isn't just a kiddie movie ghetto, but we're missing that film that will push us over the edge.

My hope, regardless of my familiarity with Tintin, is that Spielberg and Jackson are the creators to do just that. My dream for 'The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn' is that it's so good and such a big hit that it permanently changes the way we see animated films. My concern, however, is that the character is so obscure that it'll never get that chance. My suggestion is to downplay Tintin's comic book roots. Don't make audiences feel concerned that they've never read the comics. Sell the film as a wholly original work from director Steven Spielberg (at least in the States).

It's tricky, and, yes, I do feel a bit like the Ignorant American in regards to Tintin. It's one thing for him to fly under the radar of the general populace (like most comic characters do), and another thing entirely for him to be under the radar of a self-professed life-long comic book reader. I do like an adventure, even an all-ages adventure, and I've got plenty of time to educate myself before the December 2011 release of 'The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn.'"


Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:06 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
I personally don't hate Mo-Cap but don't love it either. I thought animation was not a good medium for this movie, but I would see this regardless and not just because of Jackson or Spielberg, the movie looks amazing.

I kinda agree on the article of selling this movie as an original movie rather than going too deep of its comic roots.

Anyways I don't see $300m for this and given the competition (and I think War Horse will be its competition as well cause Spielberg fans are big and they will be diverted) in the weeks to come I think the best this could do right now is $250m. For now my predictions $185m-$195m

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Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:28 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
The Dark Shape wrote:
Gamaur wrote:
Yeah it's definitely less well-known in the states than abroad, but it's far from unknown. Remember those sales figures are over a 70 year period, so while some of your friends may not know about it there's a good chance their parents will.


My parents don't, and they're not exactly sheltered when it comes to popular characters and stories.

I get the feeling you're sort of imagining what Americans think as opposed to really having known people to judge by.


I can see how you'd think that. I try to speculate with as much education as possible, so I never put much weight in things I can't validate. When there are several non-verifiable speculations available and you put them together that's where a case can be made, which is what I've attempted to do here. So even without book sales taken into account my prediction still stands.

Perhaps a bigger influence is the TV show that aired in the early 90s. That's where everyone I know found out about it. The books were much more popular in europe; over here the character has garnered more of a retro-flavoured cult following.

Despite the statistical sample of you, your friends and your parents being unaware of the series I'm still confident there is enough awareness in the states to improve its potential. Sure it's not Harry Potter, but there are fans spread out over a much wider age bracket. Hence why many people within each age bracket wouldn't know about it.


Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:07 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
Here's a couple of interesting links regarding the insurmountable barriers this Tintin film adaptation faces in the US...

Quote:
Tintin: A Very European Hero

Mr Spielberg secured an option to film Tintin shortly before Hergé’s death in 1983. The delays seem to have been caused partly by American puzzlement at Tintin. In September 2008 Universal Pictures pulled out of a plan to co-finance the project. The Hollywood Reporter, a trade publication, describes the films as being about “a young Belgian reporter and world traveller who is aided in his adventures by his faithful dog Snowy”, and explains that this storyline is “hugely popular in Europe”. You can almost hear the baffled shrugs....

Mrs Rodwell confesses to seeing risks in Hollywood doing Tintin. To her, the charm of Hergé’s work is absolutely “European”—more “nuanced” than an American comic strip. The American style of telling a story threatens that European “sensibility”, she suggests: American narratives are “very dynamic, but more violent, and are much more aggressively paced.”...

The 1930 story “Tintin in the Congo” has done much to feed Hergé’s reputation for racism. Its Africans are crude caricatures: child-men with wide eyes and bloated lips who prostrate themselves before Tintin (as well as Snowy his dog), after he shows off such magic as an electromagnet, or quinine pills for malaria. In Scandinavia the staggering toll of African wildlife Tintin kills—especially a rhinoceros he reduces to blackened chunks with dynamite—has prompted additional angst....

Hergé’s reputation is also marked by charges of anti-Semitism. He received many complaints about one of his villains, the hook-nosed New York financier, “Mr Blumenstein”.



Quote:
Tintin Crosses The Atlantic

Before the translations began in earnest, Hergé agreed to redraw several panels for The Crab with the Golden Claws depicting black characters. The US censors didn’t approve of mixing races in children’s books, so the artist created new frames, replacing black deckhand Jumbo with another character, possibly of Puerto-Rican origin. Elsewhere, a black character shown whipping Captain Haddock was replaced by someone of North African appearance....

Whilst the translation of The Crab with the Golden Claws was in progress, another problem was noticed, and Duplaix wrote to Casterman to explain: “The Crab with the Golden Claws … is a very entertaining story, but people drink with great delight, beer, champagne, rum, whisky, etc. – in a word, they drink enormously. If we publish this story as it currently is, we will encounter an extremely sharp opposition from critics and the teaching profession. This could do serious harm to the launch of the series.” The solution they had found was to tone down the text slightly, and, when confronted with illustrations of the captain drinking straight from the bottle “with an excessive enthusiasm – for example, pages 14, 16, 19, 36”, to simply remove them, the empty frame to be filled with some text. “I am sure you understand that an American, very often puritan, point of view is different from the European point of view. A joke that everyone would accept with a smile in France or Belgium would horrify people here.


Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:49 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
Well if this does indeed break $200/$300/$400m - it wont be due to OW but more to do with legs. Hence the huge built in audience doesnt have to be there - but it certainly needs brilliant WOM.

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Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:52 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
If I had to put down a number, i'd say $150m.

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Sun Oct 23, 2011 8:11 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
MadGez wrote:
Well if this does indeed break $200/$300/$400m - it wont be due to OW but more to do with legs. Hence the huge built in audience doesnt have to be there - but it certainly needs brilliant WOM.


Exactly. Popular source material, marketing and production don't mean much if people don't like the movie. These things really only help the opening weekend. For example, if The Da Vinci Code had have been a decent film it probably would have made over $350 million.


Sun Oct 23, 2011 8:39 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
Gamaur wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Well if this does indeed break $200/$300/$400m - it wont be due to OW but more to do with legs. Hence the huge built in audience doesnt have to be there - but it certainly needs brilliant WOM.


Exactly. Popular source material, marketing and production don't mean much if people don't like the movie. These things really only help the opening weekend. For example, if The Da Vinci Code had have been a decent film it probably would have made over $350 million.

Oh, oh - - that spells big trouble for Tintin then!


Sun Oct 23, 2011 9:22 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
How was the movie, Bradley? Please point me to your review...

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Sun Oct 23, 2011 9:29 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
Bradley Witherberry wrote:
Gamaur wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Well if this does indeed break $200/$300/$400m - it wont be due to OW but more to do with legs. Hence the huge built in audience doesnt have to be there - but it certainly needs brilliant WOM.


Exactly. Popular source material, marketing and production don't mean much if people don't like the movie. These things really only help the opening weekend. For example, if The Da Vinci Code had have been a decent film it probably would have made over $350 million.

Oh, oh - - that spells big trouble for Tintin then!


The saying is "Uh oh", "Oh, oh" would better suit an orgasm.

Maybe you're more excited about Tintin than you realise.


Sun Oct 23, 2011 9:58 am
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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
While I would love this to do more. I don't see the point here Gamaur. At once you said the appeal is big compared to Avatar and then you say this is no Harry Potter (in terms of opening). I don't see it opening big and those monstrous legs that are expected might fall short because of the competition and then 3D not being hot at all and then mo-cap animation, then animation used in this movie vs live-action. All these factors mixed with the reason that this character is just not big enough in US might not point to a humungous total. It has potential I would say but nothing bigger than last year's Tron had (and only reasonable expectations), nothing of the levels of Avatar. Plus this year overall competition is much bigger for the demo this movie is trying to attract

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Post Re: Tintin Domestic
Jack Sparrow wrote:
While I would love this to do more. I don't see the point here Gamaur. At once you said the appeal is big compared to Avatar and then you say this is no Harry Potter (in terms of opening). I don't see it opening big and those monstrous legs that are expected might fall short because of the competition and then 3D not being hot at all and then mo-cap animation, then animation used in this movie vs live-action. All these factors mixed with the reason that this character is just not big enough in US might not point to a humungous total. It has potential I would say but nothing bigger than last year's Tron had (and only reasonable expectations), nothing of the levels of Avatar. Plus this year overall competition is much bigger for the demo this movie is trying to attract


Thanks for the reply, but I think you may have mistaken what was said earlier. I said Tintin's appeal is broader than Avatar (which it is), and that the books won't help it as much as they did for Harry Potter (which they won't). There was no contradiction, and no implication that Tintin will break any stratospheres.

Tron is a good example of a movie with great marketing and production but average appeal, story and word of mouth. It was also helped by riding the 3D novelty wave launched by Up and Avatar, which has since diminished to a large degree.

At the moment our predictions are just based on a skeleton of logical speculations. The meat will be in the actual viewing experience. Any high prediction will only come into fruition if the film's visual spectacle is complimented with a compelling story and a sense of originality. Unless Spielberg and Jackson became meth addicts in the production I see no reason why that won't be the case.


Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:12 am
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