Sure, they'll be up later tonight.

I'm interested in how much the Doraemon films have grossed as a film franchise myself, considering there are 31 of them. Converting the films to USD that were released before 1990 might be too difficult though. The Exchange Rate History site I use doesn't date back that far.

And welcome. Did you join here from Box Office Mojo?

Awesome

No. I joined here from Box Office Followers. It's a blog provides China Box Office. They have a link to this forum and actually, I've been a silent reader for a month

nice charts Corpse, I always enjoy reading your posts,,,,,, now what I would like to know is about the rumor that came like a year before, about Porco Rosso 2, is it still in works??, if so, is there any news about it??

Porco Rosso 2 is still rumored, but nothing has developed from it. I think something will be released in the future, but not a feature film. It's being heavily implied this unknown autobiography Hayao Miyazaki is working on is on himself as a farewell or sendoff of sorts. And if that is true, it's going to be huge.



Japan Box Office History - Detective Conan



1997, The Time Bombed Skyscraper - <1 billion yen
1998, The Fourteenth Target - 1.05 billion yen ($14.78 million)
1999, The Last Wizard of the Century - 1.45 billion yen ($17.68 million)
2000, Captured in Her Eyes - 2.50 billion yen ($26.31 million)
2001, Countdown to Heaven - 2.90 billion yen ($35.80 million)
2002, The Phantom of Barker Street - 3.40 billion yen ($30.25 million)
2003, Crossroad in the Ancient Capital - 3.20 billion yen ($28.59 million)
2004, Magician of the Silver Sky - 2.80 billion yen ($25.00 million)
2005, Strategy Above the Depths - 2.15 billion yen ($23.06 million)
2006, The Private Eyes' Requiem - 3.03 billion yen ($26.88 million)
2007, Jolly Roger of the Deep Azure - 2.53 billion yen ($20.72 million)
2008, Full Score of Fear - 2.42 billion yen ($23.15 million)
2009, The Raven Chaser - 3.50 billion yen ($35.57 million)
2010, The Lost Ship in the Sky - 3.20 billion yen ($35.16 million)
2011, Quarter of Silence - 3.13 billion yen ($38.85 million)

Quarter of Silence marked the first time in the franchise that three films grossed over 3 billion yen in a row. It also became the highest grossing film of the franchise in USD.

Next year's movie hasn't been announced yet, but it's likely to occupy the franchise's annual third weekend of April (one week before Golden Week) slot again. Same goes for Pokemon, Doraemon, etc. They're all released the same week every year.

I'll have to post Doraemon's Box Office History tomorrow.

Wow, thank you so much. I'll wait for your next post.

Btw, do you know about Nankyoku Monogatari and Shanghai Mermaid Legend Murder Case? I read somewhere, it said that those movies are listed as the highest grossing movie in Japan

Nankyoku Monogatari was the highest grossing movie in Japan from 1983-1993. It grossed 5.9 billion yen in 1983, but through re-releases or being in release for years (not sure which), it's total became 11.0 billion yen at some point with 8.8 million admissions.

Converting that to USD is difficult. In most of 83 (and early/mid 80's), $1=Y230/240, so 5.9 billion yen would only be $25 million or so. And I don't know when it achieved 11.0 billion yen, so converting that would be really inaccurate (I guess $45-50 million if it was done in the 80's, though).

Nankyoku Monogatari - 5.90 (11.0) billion yen, 8.8 million admissions (1983-1993)
Jurassic Park - 12.90 billion yen, 10.8 million admissions (1993-1997),
Princess Mononoke - 19.30 billion yen, 15.7 million admissions (1997-1998),
Titanic - 25.90 billion yen, 19.6 million admissions (1998-2001),
Spirited Away - 30.40 billion yen, 23.5 million admissions (2001-Present)

Shanghai Mermaid Legend Murder Case grossed 1.4 billion yen ($11.9 million) in 1998. It certainly wasn't on any highest grossing lists, though the total was still good then.

Japan Box Office History - Doraemon



1980, Nobita's Dinosaur - 1.55 billion yen ($11.99 million)
1981, The Record of Nobita: Starblazer - 1.75 billion yen ($14.41 million)
1982, Nobita and the Haunts of Evil - 1.22 billion yen ($9.80 million)
1983, Nobita's Monstrous Underwater Castle - 1.00 billion yen ($8.08 million)
1984, Nobita's Adventure into Underworld - 1.65 billion yen ($13.46 million)
1985, Nobita's Little Star Universe - 1.20 billion yen ($9.59 million)
1986, Nobita and the Steel Troops - 1.30 billion yen ($11.06 million)
1987, Nobita and the Dinosaur Knights - 1.50 billion yen ($13.13 million)
1988, Nobita's Parallel Journey to the West - 1.36 billion yen ($12.10 million)
1989, Nobita and the Birth of Japan - 2.02 billion yen ($17.84 million)
1990, Nobita and the Animal Planet - 1.91 billion yen ($16.49 million)
1991, Nobita and the Dorabian Nights - 1.80 billion yen ($15.83 million)
1992, Nobita and the Kingdom of the Clouds - 1.68 billion yen ($14.82 million)
1993, Nobita and the Tin-Plate Labyrinth - 1.65 billion yen ($14.83 million)
1994, Nobita and the Fantastical Three Musketeers - 1.35 billion yen ($13.10 million)
1995, Nobita's Genius Diary - 1.30 billion yen ($15.62 million)
1996, Nobita and the Galactic Express - 1.60 billion yen ($14.95 million)
1997, Nobita's Adventure in the Clockwork City - 2.00 billion yen ($17.93 million)
1998, Nobita's South Sea Adventure - 2.10 billion yen ($18.57 million)
1999, Nobita's Adventure: Drifts in the Universe - 2.00 billion yen ($17.87 million)
2000, Nobita and the Legend of the Sun King - 3.05 billion yen ($29.04 million)
2001, Nobita and the Winged Braves - 3.00 billion yen ($26.76 million)
2002, Nobita and the Robot Kingdom - 2.31 billion yen ($17.63 million)
2003, Nobita and the Wind Wizard - 2.54 billion yen ($22.61 million)
2004, Nobita's Wannyan Space-Time Odyssey - 3.05 billion yen ($28.77 million)
2006, Nobita's Dinosaur (2006) - 3.28 billion yen ($27.63 million)
2007, Nobita's New Great Adventure in the Underworld - 3.54 billion yen ($30.00 million)
2008, Nobita and the Green Giant Legend - 3.37 billion yen ($32.09 million)
2009, The New Record of Nobita: Spaceblazer - 2.45 billion yen ($25.23 million)
2010, Nobita's Great Merman Sea Adventure - 3.16 billion yen ($33.65 million)
2011, Nobita and the New Steel Troops - 2.45 billion yen ($31.26 million)

Phew, this took awhile.

Nobita and the New Steel Troops was a remake of the 1986 film. Overall, the film performed well, especially when you consider the Earthquake that hit one week after its release. The Earthquake closed down over 60% of all theaters in the country for most of March this year, but Doraemon rebounded thanks to being an iconic figure among parents and children alike.

Combined, the Doramon Film franchise has grossed approx. 64.14 billion yen; $586.14 million in Japan.

The next Doraemon film, Nobita and the Island of Miracles, opens in the franchise's annual first week of March slot, 2012. 2012 also celebrates 100 years before the birth of the Doraemon character, who, in the story, was created on September 3rd, 2112.

A few actual totals have been released. The full weekend results should follow soon.

2. God's Medical Record - 841,904,452 yen ($10,886,567), 703,210 admissions. [9 Days in Release]

6. From Kokuriko Hill - 4,007,924,155 yen ($51,270,221), 3,196,562 admissions. [51 Days in Release]

10. Pokemon: Best Wishes - 4,076,078,308 yen ($52,781,410), 3,951,213 admissions. [51 Days in Release]
-Fifth consecutive year Pokemon has exceeded 4 billion yen, and soon 4 million admissions.

Both films are still behind the #1 Japanese film of the year, Space Battleship Yamato (4.10 billion yen, 3.29 million admissions), but they'll overtake it by the end of the week.

So is From Kokuriko Hill a disappointment afterall? The opening was weak, but it seems to have rebounded well afterwards.

It has rebounded very well, and will achieve a multiplier of nearly 12. By comparison, Arrietty achieved a multiplier of 10.3 last year, and Goro's previous film, Tales from Earthsea, only had a 7.9 multiplier (the only Ghibli film to recieve a multiplier under 10 I think). I don't think Kokuriko Hill was expected to match Arrietty's gross from last year, but I do believe Ghibli and Toho were expecting more than 5 billion yen.

From Kokuriko Hill is going to be the #1 Japanese film of the year, passing Space Battleship Yamato and Pokemon: Best Wishes this week. And it's going to be in wide release for a couple more months, so it has a decent amount left to gross. Looks like it'll eventually reach 4.5 billion yen ($57/58 million); 3.5/3.6 million admissions, which I'd consider only a slight disappointment.

Thanks for the insight.

So, for the rest of the year, which films can we expect to cross $50 million?

I doubt any will before December.

Little Monster comes out November 26th and will probably gross over $50 million. And in December, Mission Impossible IV and Tale of Genji are possible contenders.

September 3-4, 2011
Weekend Results



*1　--　*2億2688万0353円 ($2,949,445)　 ---.-%　**3億4951万8853円 ($4,518,793)　　310　　　　　*1　ライフ いのちをつなぐ物語 (One Life)
*2　*1　*1億8695万9600円 ($2,411,779)　 -37.8%　**8億4190万4452円 ($10,896,164)　　321　　　　　*2　神様のカルテ (God's Medical Record)
*3　*2　*1億1137万0802円 ($1,436,683)　 -35.0%　*91億8456万1701円 ($118,880,845)　　668　　　　　*8　ﾊﾘｰ･ﾎﾟｯﾀｰと死の秘宝 PART2 (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
*4　*3　**億9106万7198円 ($1,183,874)　 -32.6%　**8億9741万4099円 ($11,676,641)　　535　　　　　*3　カンフー・パンダ2 (Kung Fu Panda 2)
*5　*4　**億8947万7596円 ($1,163,208)　 -31.3%　*39億7971万5586円 ($51,438,331)　　637　　　　　*6　トランスフォーマー/ダークサイド・ムーン (Transformers: Dark of the Moon)
*6　--　**億8216万2910円 ($1,068,118)　 ---.-%　**億8216万2910円 ($1,068,118)　　151　　　　　*1　くまのプーさん (Winnie the Pooh)
*7　*5　**億8116万6708円 ($1,055,167)　 -27.2%　*40億0792万4155円 ($51,902,224)　　351　　　　　*8　コクリコ坂から (From Kokuriko Hill)
*8　*6　**億6942万7095円 ($895,609)　 -33.4%　*28億7649万8013円 ($37,106,824)　　478　　　　*6　カーズ2 (Cars 2)
*9　*7　**億5267万4604円 ($679,504)　 -46.4%　*16億8037万1600円 ($21,676,793)　　349　　　　　*5　仮面ライダーオーズ/ゴーカイジャー (Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE)
10　*8　**億4537万6404円 ($585,356)　 -53.7%　*40億7607万8308円 ($52,681,410)　　330　　　　　*8　劇場版ﾎﾟｹｯﾄﾓﾝｽﾀｰﾍﾞｽﾄｳｨｯｼｭ～ (Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes)

Updated with Actuals

[JAPANESE FILMS]

1. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 4.10 billion yen ($50.48 million), 3,290,000 admissions.
2. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) 4,076,078,308 yen ($52,681,410), 3,951,213 admissions. [51 Days In Release]
3. From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) 4,007,924,155 yen ($51,902,224), 3,196,562 admissions. [51 Days In Release]
________
4. Gantz Part 1 (Toho) 3.45 billion yen ($41.66 million), 2,770,000 admissions.
5. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution (Toho) 3.33 billion yen ($41.06 million), 2,600,000 admissions.
6. Partners the Movie 2 (TOEI) 3.19 billion yen ($38.98 million), 2,500,000 admissions.
7. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) 3.13 billion yen ($38.85 miillion), 2,630,000 admissions.
________
8. Gantz Perfect Answer (Toho) 2.80 billion yen ($35.38 million), 2,230,000 admissions.
9. Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops (Toho) 2.45 billion yen ($31.26 million), 2,160,000 admissions.
________
10. Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution (Toho) 1.85 billion yen ($24.05 million), 1,500,000 admissions.
11. Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 1.77 billion yen ($22.42 million), 1,480,000 admissions.
12. Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE (TOEI) 1,680,371,600 yen ($21,676,793), 1,426,251 admissions. [30 Days in Release]
13. Gaku (Toho) 1.60 billion yen ($20.23 million), 1,270,000 admissions.
14. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) 1.58 billion yen ($20.08 million), 1,225,000 admissions.
15. Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 1.57 billion yen ($19.80 million), 1,248,000 admissions.
16. Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) 1.42 billion yen ($17.92 million), 1,127,000 admissions.
17. Paradise Kiss (Warner Bros.) 1.41 billion yen ($18.02 million), 1,116,000 admissions.
18. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 1.40 billion yen ($17.69 million), 1,113,000 admissions.
19. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core (TOEI) 1.38 billion yen ($17.53 million), 1,115,000 admissions.
20. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Den-O Let's Go All Kamen Riders (TOEI) 1.35 billion yen ($17.07 million), 1,110,000 admissions.
21. 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) 1.23 billion yen ($15.56 million), 1,005,000 admissions.
22. Crayon Shin-chan: The Golden Spy Mission (Toho) 1.20 billion yen ($15.13 million), 1,142,000 admissions.
23. The Cicada's Eighth Day (Shochiku) 1.17 billion yen ($14.74 million), 956,000 admissions.
24. Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 1.10 billion yen ($13.85 million), 912,000 admissions.
25. Hankyu Densha (Toho) 1.06 billion yen ($13.44 million), 881,000 admissions.



[IMPORTED FILMS]

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) 9,184,561,701 yen ($118,880,845), 6,545,718 admissions. [52 Days In Release]
________
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) 9.00 billion yen ($116 million), 5,900,000 admissions.
________
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) 6.90 billion yen ($84.28 million), 5,580,000 admissions.
________
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) 3,979,715,586 yen ($51,438,331), 2,606,231 admissions [38 Days in Release]
________
5. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) 2,876,498,013 yen ($37,106,824), 2,123,900 admissions. [37 Days in Release]
6. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2.68 billion yen ($31.94 million), 1,768,000 admissions.
7. Tangled (Walt Disney) 2.55 billion yen ($31.34 million), 1,752,000 admissions.
8. Black Swan (Fox) 2.36 billion yen ($30.40 million), 1,810,000 admissions.
9. TRON: Legacy (Walt Disney) 2.10 billion yen ($25.58 million), 1,347,000 admissions.
________
10. The King's Speech (Gaga) 1.90 billion yen ($24.05 million), 1,450,000 admissions.
11. The Tourist (Sony) 1.86 billion yen ($23.37 million), 1,439,000 admissions.
12. Super 8 (Paramount) 1.75 billion yen ($22.75 million), 1,414,000 admissions.
13. Gulliver's Travels (Fox) 1.57 billion yen ($19.81 million), 1,046,000 admissions.
14. The Social Network (Sony) 1.42 billion yen ($17.84 million), 1,111,000 admissions.
15. Red (Walt Disney) 1.20 billion yen ($15.26 million), 967,000 admissions.
16. Unstoppable (Fox) 1.05 billion yen ($13.31 million), 836,000 admissions.


Key:

BOLD = Final Total.

Note 1 - If a film is not in bold, and doesn't have days in release (e.g. Unstoppable), it means tracking for that film ended and the total listed isn't final yet. The totals for those films are likely to increase <1% when the final total is released.

Highlights:

Harry Potter 7.2 overtakes Pirates 4 to claim the #1 position among Imported Films, and Overall Film of the Year in gross and admissions.

Pokemon 14 and Kokuriko Hill are within 100 million yen of passing up Space Battleship Yamato as the #1 Japanese film of the year (they already did in USD). Pokemon 14 also becomes the fifth consecutive Pokemon film to exceed 4 billion yen.

Transformers 3 is just shy of 4 billion yen and will become the highest grossing film in the franchise any day now (though it's blown past it's predecessors in USD weeks ago). The original Transformers grossed 4.01 billion yen ($37m), the sequel only 2.32 billion yen ($26m).

Only films that have grossed 1 billion yen or more are included.

Films nearing 1 billion yen:
God's Medical Record (841 million) [9 Days in Release]
Kung Fu Panda 2 (897 million) [17 Days in Release]
Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle (~900 million)
What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management"? (~900 million)
Nintama Rantarou Live Action Movie! (~935 million)


PREVIOUS YEARS

I haven't posted a release schedule in a long time, so here is the most recent listings.

September
9th - The Smurfs (Toho-Towa)
10th - Green Lantern (Warner Bros.), Bar Detectives (TOEI)
16th - Sanctum (Toho-Towa)
17th - Unfair: The Movie 2 (Toho)*, Battle: Los Angeles (Sony), The Man from Nowhere (TOEI), Spy Kids 4D (Shochiku/Asmik Ace)
23rd - Unthinkable (School Gate), Moteki (Toho), Second Virgin (Shochiku), We Can't Rebuild The World, But We Wanna Build A School in Cambodia (TOEI), Dear John (Presido), Priest (Sony)

October
1st - Final Destination 5 (Warner Bros.), Fast Five (Toho-Towa), Dog X Police (TOEI), Friends with Benefits (Sony), Hayabusa (Fox)
7th - Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Fox)*
8th - Tsure-Utsu (TOEI), In the City of Dawn (Kadakowa Pictures), Lion King 3D (Walt Disney)
14th - Captain America (Paramount)
15th - Ichimei (Shochiku), Electric Man: Zaboga (King Records),
22nd - Rango (Paramount), Cowboys Vs Aliens (Paramount), Tokyo Oasis (Surkitosu)
28th - Source Code (Walt Disney), The Three Musketeers (Gaga)
29th - A Ghost of a Chance (Toho)*, Suite Precure The Movie: Take it back! The Miraculous Melody that Connects Hearts (TOEI), Scream 4 (Asmik Ace)

November
1st -Paranormal Activity 3 (Paramount)
5th - Kaiji the Movie 2 (Toho)*, Twilight File VIII: Mom Fights Back (MIRAI), 1911 (TOEI)
11th - Immortals (Toho-Towa)*, Moneyball (Sony)
12th - Mobile Suit Gundam UC (Unicorn) – In the Depths of a Gravity Well (ODS), Guilty of Love (Nikkatsu)
19th - Inochi no Antoki (Shochiku)*, Shaolin (Broad Media Studios), Crazy, Stupid, Love (Warner Bros.)
23rd - Arthur Christmas (Sony)
26th - Little Monster: The Movie (Toho)*, Happy Feet 2 (Warner Bros.), Henry's Crime (Presido)

Movies marked with an asterisk are ones to watch (2 billion yen ($25 million) or more potential)).

Big movie announcement today from Toho.

『海猿4』制作決定！36人の精鋭・特殊救難隊の物語へとステージアップ！佐藤隆太の彼女役で仲里依紗が参戦！
映画『BRAVE HEARTS 海猿』は2012年7月全国公開



http://www.cinematoday.jp/page/N0035215

Umizaru 4: Brave Hearts will be released July 2012.

Umizaru Box Office History

2004, Umizaru - 1.74 billion yen ($19.12 million)
2006, Umizaru 2: Limit of Love - 7.10 billion yen ($58.40 million)
2010, Umizaru 3: The Last Message - 8.04 billion yen ($97.28 million)

Umizaru 4: Brave Hearts will likely be the biggest Japanese film next year, and maybe the biggest overall film with no major Hollywood release looking to reach Potter, Pirates, etc. levels.

The Amazing Spider-Man is Hollywood's only $100 million contender next year that I see (The Hobbit will be a 2013 release), but it has a very difficult task of improving over Spider-Man 3's 7.12 billion yen total.

September 10-11,
Weekend Forecast



1 (1) One Life (Avex Entertainment) 175 million yen ($2.25 million), Week 2
2 (-) Bar Detectives (TOEI) 140 million yen ($1.80 million), NEW
3 (2) God's Medical Record (Toho) 125 million yen ($1.61 million), Week 3
4 (3) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) 79 million yen ($1.01 million), Week 9
5 (-) The Smurfs (Toho-Towa) 70 million yen ($905,000), NEW
6 (4) Kung Fu Panda 2 (Paramount) 64 million yen ($825,000), Week 4
7 (7) From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) 60 million yen ($775,000), Week 9
8 (6) Winnie the Pooh (Walt Disney) 58 million yen ($750,000), Week 2
9 (5) Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) 55 million yen ($710,000), Week 7
10 (-) Green Lantern (Warner Bros.) 50 million yen ($650,000), NEW

Projected Totals after this Weekend:

One Life - 750 million yen ($9.75 million), [12 Days in Release]
God's Medical Record - 1.20 billion yen ($15.5 million), [16 Days in Release]
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - 9.36 billion yen ($120.6 million), [59 Days in Release]
Kung Fu Panda 2 - 1.05 billion yen ($13.5 million), [24 Days in Release]
From Kokuriko Hill - 4.17 billion yen ($53.9 million), [58 Days in Release]
Winnie the Pooh - 200 million yen ($2.6 million), [9 Days in Release]
Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 4.10 billion yen ($52.9 million), [45 Days in Release]

Sunday Data compared to last Sunday. Unfortunately, Saturday data is unavailable this weekend, so the drops below may not accurately represent the weekend as a whole. At the least, it should give a general idea of how the films performed this weekend.

Openers,

Bar Detective is targeting 125-150 million yen ($1.6-1.9m) for the weekend, which could be enough to debut at #1.
Smurfs tracking 21% behind Pooh last weekend, targeting 60-70 million yen ($750-850,000).
Green Lantern tracking 36% behind Pooh last weekend, targeting 50-55 million yen ($650-700,000).

No data was given for Smurfs or Green Lantern.

Holdovers,

One Life (-42.8%), Week 2
God's Medical Record (-28.9%), Week 3
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (-37.6%), Week 9
From Kokuriko Hill (-32.7%), Week 9
Winnie the Pooh (40.4%), Week 2
Kung Fu Panda 2 (-43.9%), Week 4
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (-51.0%), Week 7
Cars 2 (-55.0%), Week 7
Pokemon: Best Wishes (-39.8%), Week 9
Kamen Rider (-62.1%), Week 6

Positioning based on where those drops would rank them this weekend.

One Life might hold onto the #1 spot for a second weekend. That drop puts it right in the projected range of Bar Detectives.

Smurfs and Green Lantern data are included now. Smurfs opened early on a Friday, so it's total will be higher than the weekend projection above (probably near 100 million yen ($1.2/1.3m) after three days).

Hmm and that after two $110+ million Hollywood films this year and two last year.

I wonder will The Dark Knight Rises increase much over The Dark Knight? Inception's success must have helped Nolan's name in Japan...

Actually three Hollywood films grossed over $100 million last year since Avatar was counted as a 2010 release.

But even if 2012 results in one, or no, $100 million grosses for Hollywood, 2013 will rebound with several likely candidates: Monsters University, Hobbit Part 1, Oz: The Great and Powerful, and Pirates 5 (if it happens) are all very possible.

Monsters University has the most potential, in my opinion, and could top the year if Hayao Miyazaki's film is released in 2014. After seeing how much TS3 increase over TS2 (315%), and how big the original Monsters Inc. was (9.37 billion yen; approx. 7.9m admissions), it looks like a huge gross awaits for the prequel.

The Dark Knight Rises will probably increase, but the only superhero movies to gross more than even 2 billion yen have been the Spider-Man films.

September 10-11, 2011
Weekend Admission Rankings



1 (-) Bar Detective (TOEI), NEW
2 (1) One Life (Avex Entertainment), Week 2
3 (2) God's Medical Record (Toho), Week 3
4 (3) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.), Week 9
5 (-) The Smurfs (Toho-Towa), NEW
6 (5) Winnie the Pooh (Walt Disney), Week 2
7 (4) Kung Fu Panda 2 (Paramount), Week 4
8 (6) From Kokuriko Hill (Toho), Week 9
9 (7) Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount), Week 7
10 (-) Green Lantern (Warner Bros.), NEW

- http://www.nikkansports.com/entertainme ... sales.html

Bar Detective debuts at #1 with a solid 170,216,900 yen ($2.21 million) to 128,800 admissions on 251 screens.

A standard multiplier will allow it to reach the commercial successful mark of 1 billion yen ($12.5 million).

The Smurfs opened with 65,828,050 yen ($854,000) to 48,484 admissions for the weekend, bringing it's three day total to 76,378,650 yen ($992,000) with 56,060 admissions.

A weaker start than Winnie the Pooh had last weekend, and it should finish with around 400 million yen ($5.2 million).

And Transformers: Dark of the Moon exceeded 4 billion yen ($52 million) to become the highest grossing film in the Transformers franchise in local currency (the original grossed 4.01 billion yen).

That's all the available figures right now.

Updated with Estimates

[JAPANESE FILMS]

1. From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) 4,200,000,000 yen ($54,180,000), 3,350,000 admissions. [58 Days In Release]
2. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) 4,150,000,000 yen ($53,535,000), 4,015,000 admissions. [58 Days In Release]
3. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 4.10 billion yen ($50.48 million), 3,290,000 admissions.
________
4. Gantz Part 1 (Toho) 3.45 billion yen ($41.66 million), 2,770,000 admissions.
5. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution (Toho) 3.33 billion yen ($41.06 million), 2,600,000 admissions.
6. Partners the Movie 2 (TOEI) 3.19 billion yen ($38.98 million), 2,500,000 admissions.
7. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) 3.13 billion yen ($38.85 miillion), 2,630,000 admissions.
________
8. Gantz Perfect Answer (Toho) 2.80 billion yen ($35.38 million), 2,230,000 admissions.
9. Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops (Toho) 2.45 billion yen ($31.26 million), 2,160,000 admissions.
________
10. Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution (Toho) 1.85 billion yen ($24.05 million), 1,500,000 admissions.
11. Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 1.77 billion yen ($22.42 million), 1,480,000 admissions.
12. Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE (TOEI) 1,720,000,000 yen ($22,180,000), 1,460,000 admissions. [37 Days in Release]
13. Gaku (Toho) 1.60 billion yen ($20.23 million), 1,270,000 admissions.
14. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) 1.58 billion yen ($20.08 million), 1,225,000 admissions.
15. Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 1.57 billion yen ($19.80 million), 1,248,000 admissions.
16. Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) 1.42 billion yen ($17.92 million), 1,127,000 admissions.
17. Paradise Kiss (Warner Bros.) 1.41 billion yen ($18.02 million), 1,116,000 admissions.
18. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 1.40 billion yen ($17.69 million), 1,113,000 admissions.
19. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core (TOEI) 1.38 billion yen ($17.53 million), 1,115,000 admissions.
20. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Den-O Let's Go All Kamen Riders (TOEI) 1.35 billion yen ($17.07 million), 1,110,000 admissions.
21. 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) 1.23 billion yen ($15.56 million), 1,005,000 admissions.
22. Crayon Shin-chan: The Golden Spy Mission (Toho) 1.20 billion yen ($15.13 million), 1,142,000 admissions.
23. God's Medical Record (Toho) 1,180,000,000 yen ($15,100,000), 1,000,000 admissions. [16 Days in Release]
24. The Cicada's Eighth Day (Shochiku) 1.17 billion yen ($14.74 million), 956,000 admissions.
25. Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 1.10 billion yen ($13.85 million), 912,000 admissions.
26. Hankyu Densha (Toho) 1.06 billion yen ($13.44 million), 881,000 admissions.



[IMPORTED FILMS]

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) 9,375,000,000 yen ($121,875,000), 6,705,000 admissions. [59 Days In Release]
________
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) 9.00 billion yen ($116 million), 5,900,000 admissions.
________
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) 6.90 billion yen ($84.28 million), 5,580,000 admissions.
________
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) 4,100,000,000 yen ($53,300,000), 2,690,000 admissions [45 Days in Release]
________
5. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) 2,950,000,000 yen ($38,050,000), 2,190,000 admissions. [44 Days in Release]
6. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2.68 billion yen ($31.94 million), 1,768,000 admissions.
7. Tangled (Walt Disney) 2.55 billion yen ($31.34 million), 1,752,000 admissions.
8. Black Swan (Fox) 2.36 billion yen ($30.40 million), 1,810,000 admissions.
9. TRON: Legacy (Walt Disney) 2.10 billion yen ($25.58 million), 1,347,000 admissions.
________
10. The King's Speech (Gaga) 1.90 billion yen ($24.05 million), 1,450,000 admissions.
11. The Tourist (Sony) 1.86 billion yen ($23.37 million), 1,439,000 admissions.
12. Super 8 (Paramount) 1.75 billion yen ($22.75 million), 1,414,000 admissions.
13. Gulliver's Travels (Fox) 1.57 billion yen ($19.81 million), 1,046,000 admissions.
14. The Social Network (Sony) 1.42 billion yen ($17.84 million), 1,111,000 admissions.
15. Red (Walt Disney) 1.20 billion yen ($15.26 million), 967,000 admissions.
16. Unstoppable (Fox) 1.05 billion yen ($13.31 million), 836,000 admissions.
17. Kung Fu Panda 2 (Paramount) 1,040,000,000 yen ($13,400,000), 810,000 admissions. [24 Days in Release]

Key:

BOLD = Final Total.

Note 1 - If a film is not in bold, and doesn't have days in release (e.g. Unstoppable), it means tracking for that film ended and the total listed isn't final yet. The totals for those films are likely to increase <1% when the final total is released.

Highlights:

Kokuriko Hill and Pokemon 14 overtake Space Battleship Yamato and claim the top two positions among Japanese Films for 2011 (fourth and fifth positions overall). Pokemon 14 is also the first Japanese Film to exceed 4 million admissions this year (fifth consecutive film to do so in the franchise).

Transformers 3 exceeded 4 billion yen to become the highest grossing film in the franchise.

God's Medical Record and Kung Fu Panda 2 exceeded 1 billion yen to debut on the charts.


Only films that have grossed 1 billion yen or more are included.

Films nearing 1 billion yen:
Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle (~900 million)
What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management"? (~900 million)
Nintama Rantarou Live Action Movie! (~935 million)


PREVIOUS YEARS

September 10-11, 2011
Weekend Estimates



1 (-) Bar Detective (TOEI) 170 million yen ($2.21 million), NEW
2 (1) One Life (Avex Entertainment) 149 million yen ($1.94 million), -33%, Week 2
3 (2) God's Medical Record (Toho) 136 million yen ($1.77 million), -27%, Week 3
4 (3) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) 72 million yen ($936,000), -35%, Week 9
5 (-) The Smurfs (Toho-Towa) 65 million yen ($845,000), NEW
6 (6) Winnie the Pooh (Walt Disney) 55 million yen ($715,000), -32%, Week 2
7 (4) Kung Fu Panda 2 (Paramount) 53 million yen ($689,000), -42%, Week 4
8 (7) From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) 52 million yen ($676,000), -34%, Week 9
9 (5) Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) 51 million yen ($663,000), -44%, Week 7
10 (-) Green Lantern (Warner Bros.) 45 million yen ($585,000), NEW

This is the closest Top 10 I can remember. The bottom half is also grossing very little now, but thankfully a few bigger films are being released in the coming weeks.

Of note on the more recent releases,

Green Lantern managed to debut in the Top 10 (congrats?). It won't make more than 250/275 million yen ($3/3.5 million).

One Life is tracking 20ish% behind Oceans, and if it continues, it's looking at about 2 billion yen ($25 million). Nature docs remain strong here.

With a whopping 97% of it's audience being women, and Ladies Day being every Wednesday (females get 50% discount), God's Medical Record is having very strong weekdays. It, too, will come close to 2 billion yen ($25 million), but will probably fall just shy with 1.8/1.9 billion.

And Japan is going to be the only market, I think, that Winnie the Pooh beats The Smurfs. Pooh is heading for 500/550 million yen ($6.5/7 million), and Smurfs might crack 400 million yen ($5 million).

The Weekend Results haven't been released yet, but the actual total grosses are available now.


Updated with Actuals

[JAPANESE FILMS]
1. From Kokuriko Hill (Toho) 4,148,791,855 yen ($53,942,294), 3,298,759 admissions. [58 Days In Release]
2. Pokemon the Movie: Best Wishes (Toho) 4,117,122,394 yen ($53,522,594), 4,007,769 admissions. [58 Days In Release]
3. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 4.10 billion yen ($50.48 million), 3,290,000 admissions.
________
4. Gantz Part 1 (Toho) 3.45 billion yen ($41.66 million), 2,770,000 admissions.
5. SP: The Motion Picture - Revolution (Toho) 3.33 billion yen ($41.06 million), 2,600,000 admissions.
6. Partners the Movie 2 (TOEI) 3.19 billion yen ($38.98 million), 2,500,000 admissions.
7. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (Toho) 3.13 billion yen ($38.85 miillion), 2,630,000 admissions.
________
8. Gantz Perfect Answer (Toho) 2.80 billion yen ($35.38 million), 2,230,000 admissions.
9. Doraemon: Nobita and the New Steel Troops (Toho) 2.45 billion yen ($31.26 million), 2,160,000 admissions.
________
10. Andalusia: Goddess of Retribution (Toho) 1.85 billion yen ($24.05 million), 1,500,000 admissions.
11. Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 1.77 billion yen ($22.42 million), 1,480,000 admissions.
12. Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals / Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger the Movie: The Flying Ghost Ship DOUBLE FEATURE (TOEI) 1,717,048,318 yen ($22,321,628), 1,456,360 admissions. [37 Days in Release]
13. Gaku (Toho) 1.60 billion yen ($20.23 million), 1,270,000 admissions.
14. Princess Toyotomi (Toho) 1.58 billion yen ($20.08 million), 1,225,000 admissions.
15. Miracle Man of the Pacific (Toho) 1.57 billion yen ($19.80 million), 1,248,000 admissions.
16. Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) 1.42 billion yen ($17.92 million), 1,127,000 admissions.
17. Paradise Kiss (Warner Bros.) 1.41 billion yen ($18.02 million), 1,116,000 admissions.
18. Norwegian Wood (Toho) 1.40 billion yen ($17.69 million), 1,113,000 admissions.
19. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core (TOEI) 1.38 billion yen ($17.53 million), 1,115,000 admissions.
20. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Den-O Let's Go All Kamen Riders (TOEI) 1.35 billion yen ($17.07 million), 1,110,000 admissions.
21. 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) 1.23 billion yen ($15.56 million), 1,005,000 admissions.
22. Crayon Shin-chan: The Golden Spy Mission (Toho) 1.20 billion yen ($15.13 million), 1,142,000 admissions.
23. God's Medical Record (Toho) 1,179,717,450 yen ($15,336,327), 985,423 admissions. [16 Days in Release]
24. The Cicada's Eighth Day (Shochiku) 1.17 billion yen ($14.74 million), 956,000 admissions.
25. Tomorrow's Joe (Toho) 1.10 billion yen ($13.85 million), 912,000 admissions.
26. Hankyu Densha (Toho) 1.06 billion yen ($13.44 million), 881,000 admissions.



[IMPORTED FILMS]
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Warner Bros.) 9,360,467,185 yen ($121,686,073), 6,701,406 admissions. [59 Days In Release]
________
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Walt Disney) 9.00 billion yen ($116 million), 5,900,000 admissions.
________
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) 6.90 billion yen ($84.28 million), 5,580,000 admissions.
________
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount) 4,099,148,764 yen ($53,288,934), 2,689,677 admissions [45 Days in Release]
________
5. Cars 2 (Walt Disney) 2,933,223,573 yen ($38,131,906), 2,179,544 admissions. [44 Days in Release]
6. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Fox) 2.68 billion yen ($31.94 million), 1,768,000 admissions.
7. Tangled (Walt Disney) 2.55 billion yen ($31.34 million), 1,752,000 admissions.
8. Black Swan (Fox) 2.36 billion yen ($30.40 million), 1,810,000 admissions.
9. TRON: Legacy (Walt Disney) 2.10 billion yen ($25.58 million), 1,347,000 admissions.
________
10. The King's Speech (Gaga) 1.90 billion yen ($24.05 million), 1,450,000 admissions.
11. The Tourist (Sony) 1.86 billion yen ($23.37 million), 1,439,000 admissions.
12. Super 8 (Paramount) 1.75 billion yen ($22.75 million), 1,414,000 admissions.
13. Gulliver's Travels (Fox) 1.57 billion yen ($19.81 million), 1,046,000 admissions.
14. The Social Network (Sony) 1.42 billion yen ($17.84 million), 1,111,000 admissions.
15. Red (Walt Disney) 1.20 billion yen ($15.26 million), 967,000 admissions.
16. Unstoppable (Fox) 1.05 billion yen ($13.31 million), 836,000 admissions.
17. Kung Fu Panda 2 (Paramount) 1,036,154,078 yen ($13,296,003), 801,157 admissions. [24 Days in Release]

Key:

BOLD = Final Total.

Note 1 - If a film is not in bold and doesn't have days in release (e.g. Unstoppable), it means tracking for that film ended and the total listed isn't final yet. The totals for those films are likely to increase <1% when the final total is released.

Highlights:

Kokuriko Hill and Pokemon 14 overtake Space Battleship Yamato and claim the top two positions among Japanese Films for 2011 (fourth and fifth positions overall). Pokemon 14 is also the first Japanese Film to exceed 4 million admissions this year (fifth consecutive film to do so in the franchise).

Transformers 3 exceeded 4 billion yen to become the highest grossing film in the franchise.

God's Medical Record and Kung Fu Panda 2 exceeded 1 billion yen to debut on the charts.


Only films that have grossed 1 billion yen or more are included.

Films nearing 1 billion yen (900 million yen+):
Gokaiger Goseiger Super Sentai 199 Hero Great Battle (~900 million)
What If a Female Manager of a High School Baseball Team Read Drunker's "Management"? (~900 million)
Nintama Rantarou Live Action Movie! (~935 million)


PREVIOUS YEARS