The buzz around TH2 at my school alone is enough to drive anyone crazy, so I deffentially believe these tracking numbers. It was pretty much the only thing people were talking about all day. It's going to be HUGE fo sho. As for Panda it could go either way, but the market is wide open for one of these movies, so I still can't see it dissapointing.

The Hangover 2 will finish with over 20,000 tweets today alone. It's truly in a league of it's own for an R-rated comedy.

Agreed. AP2 opened much higher and had weaker legs (obviously), this will be the same.

Amazing to think that the original Hangover opened to exactly the same as AP2, yet had a better multiplier than the original AP which had great word of mouth too.

Hangover II - $121m

Kung Fu Panda - $119m



Those are huge numbers for two films on the same weekend.. Feels funny typing it.

Tracking really doesn't make sense to me, I've been campaigning for months that Panda won't be huge but have a five day short of the originals three day opening just seems preposterous. Twitter has a lot more faith for it, I really don't see how it misses 80m 5-day. Hangover 2 is going to be enermous like I've said months, I really hope the 130m+ club is successful, that'd be cool.

As expected, The Hangover 2's release won't be blocked. This news story has undoubtedly contributed to the insane Twitter activity.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metr ... 0f31a.html

So, it looks like this weekend, should all go well, is going to see two vry long-standing, major OW records go down: R-rated movie (Matrix Reloaded's $91.8 million, eight years strong) and Non-#1 debut (Day After Tomorrow's $68.7 million, seven years to the weekend).

Jesus, the Top 2 alone is going to crush last year's Top 12, and could still outgross the two Memorial Day weekends before that (They just need $170M+ together).

I really hope this weekend doesn't let us down.

The two new releases are almost locked to make more between them in five days than last year's two openers on the same weekend made in their entire runs.

Hey Shawn, do you also think MTC's Panda tracking is off? Compared to the original, the BOM poll and Twitter activity seem to suggest it will increase in admissions by a sizable margin. Only thing that concerns me are the few articles suggesting it has been tracking softly, but we really don't know how much of that is pure guesswork on their part.

I've been lurking for some time and think you all have great info. With Panda2 and Hangover2 sure to rake in more than 200mm 5day weekend, what do you guys think the total box office sales of top 10 movies are for 5day weekend?

I've been lurking for some time and think you all have great info. With Panda2 and Hangover2 sure to rake in more than 200mm 5day weekend, what do you guys think the total box office sales of top 10 movies are for 5day weekend?

When will you see
'The Hangover Part II?'

40.3% Opening Weekend
22.2% Sometime in Theaters
17.9% On DVD/Blu/VOD
15.0% Never
4.7% On TV
1,068 users polled.

That "Opening Weekend" figure pretty much destroys any previous result for an R-rated comedy. In fact, "Never" is typically the #1 result for these types of films.

When will you see
'Kung Fu Panda 2?'

29.9% Opening Weekend
23.0% Sometime in Theaters
22.0% On DVD/Blu/VOD
19.0% Never
6.2% On TV
1,088 users polled.

Definitely a very strong result and the opening weekend number is higher than just about any animation release that isn't from Pixar.

Hangover 2 - 122m
Panda 2 - 105m

both 5 day

The results for the first two films:

When will you see 'The Hangover?'
25.3% Never
23.9% Opening Weekend
23.6% On DVD
21.6% Sometime in Theaters
5.6% On TV
1,579 users polled.

When will you see 'Kung Fu Panda?'
25.2% On DVD
23.8% Sometime in Theaters
23.0% Opening Weekend
21.8% Never
6.2% On TV
1,548 users polled.

That's an insanely fantastic improvement for Hangover. Pretty good for KFP too.

I honestly do.

My feeling is that MTC hasn't taken into account the "silent killer" that can be family audiences who haven't been going to the theater recently, and there really hasn't been a huge kiddie/family draw since Tangled. Rango, Hop, and Rio did decent business but they all are dated now by family movie standards. I feel like the market is ready for a family animation to explode on some level and KFP2 only needs to sell half the tickets of Shrek 2 in the same time frame to reach $100 million in five days. Under those terms, I just find it hard to believe that's not achievable...

To be fair, I'll admit that I wonder if the marketing campaign has left a bit to be desired while also considering that maybe 3D is actually turning off interest parties. But at the same time, animation has quietly been dominating even during the slump for the past year...making MTC's projection of an admissions drop from KFP1 even more bewildering than it already is.

I do think that "theorem" will fail with Panda this weekend. What are your thoughts?

Panda reviews are looking great. Critics saying it is just as much fun as the first and 3D works. Sadly the same can not be said about The Hangover

I agree with your excellent points. It's clear audiences have become more selective with their offerings, and KFP2 should fit the bill for family entertainment over the long weekend. Tracking has seen its share of misses on extended weekends, and when you couple that with many past difficulties in the genre, I don't put too much stock into MTC or the "rule"/"theorem" this week. RS has been surprisingly closer on many film this year, and I even think they are a bit low on KFP2. I'm definitely seeing $100-110m over 5 days.

Metacritic has started to lose importance to me as well now.

Time Out New York has more weight than Variety? Fucking bullshit.

Starting to think that Hangover 2 will have bad legs. Reviews are not looking good at all

Alot of critics seem to be writing it's the same movie again in a differnet location. I tend to think that's what alot of the fans of the original are hoping for. I would hardly think that will impact OW. Also, WOM could be better than what we are reading on rottentomatoes if that formula still works in Thailand.

Most critics are saying that it is a lot less funny as well. Looking at the writers of the film I see why. I don't think critics would mind if it was the same as the first one aslong as it is still funny. Hangover 2 just looks like a remake of the first with less laughs.

Oh hai curtis20

REVIEWS MEAN NOTHING FOR THIS MOVIE. DUH.

It's a sequel, it was never going to have good reviews. It will still be massive, because it sounds like it's more of the same and that's what the audience is going to want, frankly.

If it has bad legs, that's because it'll be performing like a sequel. Not because reviews are bad.

That's total BS. It's true that most sequels tend to have much worse reviews than the original movie (even if the original isn't all that well received to begin with), but you can't make a general statement like that because it's not true. Nobody expected F5 to please critics. Look where it's at.

Okay. Let me rephrase.

It's a comedy sequel, which are extremely rarely as well-received as their predecessors.