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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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 Re: May 26-30 Predictions There's a lot of turnover in the parking lot across from the theatre. You just have to be patient for a few minutes.  _________________   1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Sun May 22, 2011 7:35 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm
Posts: 8942
Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions RS: [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s [PAND2] mid 90s (both for five days)
Posted by: secretstalker on May 22, 17:18
[GLANT] mid 50s
[JUDYM] mid single digits
[XMEN4] mid -to high 70s
[SUPR8] mid-to-high 20s
[POPNG] mid -to high 30s (i haven't seen a single commercial for this and had no idea it was opening
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| Sun May 22, 2011 8:22 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions That tracking for SUPER 8 is not promising. Still, I don't see how it doesn't do better than that. It doesn't even have any competition the weekend it opens.
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| Sun May 22, 2011 8:47 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Super 8 probably won't open HUGE. I expect no higher than $35M opening weekend. Possibility of very long legs exists, though, if it's as good as it looks.
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| Sun May 22, 2011 8:49 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm
Posts: 8942
Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Yeah! it's not looking good for Super 8 at all. I know it's just RS, but it has been very consistant for the last couple of weeks and even the twitter tracking is pretty weak. I think mid 30's will be the best it can do, but I still believe it will have great legs too.
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| Sun May 22, 2011 9:03 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions ^ It's also too soon to write the movie off, ya negative nancies. Tracking is not infallible, as Bridesmaids has forcefully demonstrated. It has 3 weeks until release, be patient.
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| Sun May 22, 2011 9:23 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Super 8 will be huge, people. It'll open in the 45-55 mil. range and have super-strong, nearly Inception-caliber legs. Just watch.
If an original blockbuster hopeful stumbles this summer, it will be Cowboys & Aliens.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Sun May 22, 2011 9:24 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Yes. It is. Again, just watch.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Sun May 22, 2011 9:33 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions And even if it doesn't (don't fret, it will), it'll come close enough--37 mil. or so. So hardly worthy of "lol no," as if 40 mil. is this zany unreachable number for it.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Sun May 22, 2011 9:36 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Fair enough, I may have been overzealous with 45. But 40+ mil. will happen. And this does have the feel of an event movie. It's there in the advertising, and it'll blossom over the next few weeks.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Sun May 22, 2011 9:41 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Magnus Prime wrote: Tell that to 99.9% of America who doesn't give a shit about this film. If they don't already, they will soon. The blend of retro-Spielberg style and a sense of mystery will peak their interest. This isn't going to open drastically lower than Cloverfield. C'mon. _________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Sun May 22, 2011 9:46 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Yeah, despite being RS, the writing is on the wall for Super 8. It's not looking good, especially when its American Idol promotion failed to register any measurable Twitter spike.
_________________
Making Predictions Great Again!
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| Sun May 22, 2011 9:57 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm
Posts: 8942
Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions You know people keep making those comparisons to Cloverfield and I'm going to honestly say that movie was marketed alot better than Super 8 has been so far. Cloverfield deffentially got the mainstream audience attention where as Super 8 is getting more attention from the Spielberg / Abrams fanboys. From the previews it doesn't even look like they know what audience to appeal to.
Last edited by Dil on Sun May 22, 2011 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sun May 22, 2011 10:05 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Sheesh, people.
Like I said...IT DOESN'T COME OUT FOR 3 WEEKS. I'm not even predicting huge numbers at all but this "it's doomed!" talk is silly.
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| Sun May 22, 2011 10:18 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions But 40/200 is RIDICULOUS! RIDICULOUS, I DO SAY!
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Sun May 22, 2011 10:21 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Magnus Prime wrote: Libs wrote: Sheesh, people.
Like I said...IT DOESN'T COME OUT FOR 3 WEEKS. I'm not even predicting huge numbers at all but this "it's doomed!" talk is silly. No one is saying its doomed. But people expecting a big opening are misguided.. I guess I'm going off the two separate people who have said "it's not looking good." I don't know by what standard it's not looking good three weeks away, but as you said, an opening in the mid-$30M range would be quite strong for a film being sold entirely on its director/producer and concept. Men being premature. It will get you every time. 
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| Sun May 22, 2011 10:22 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Magnus Prime wrote: The marketplace has to cool down a bit and Super 8 does not have any "event" feel to it. It's not really a big event film, but I see no reason it couldn't at least do 35 Million or so. 40 Million would not surprise me.
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| Mon May 23, 2011 1:30 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23386
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions $40m isnt that difficult to get for Super 8 if the marketing amps up in the coming weeks. Anything over $30m would be good. It would have to have phenominal WOM to get above $150m from a mid 20s base but its possible - I mean Bridesmaids could almost do it.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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| Mon May 23, 2011 2:29 am |
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Riggs
We had our time together
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:36 am
Posts: 13299
Location: Vienna
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions 5-day:
Kung-Fu Panda 2: $104m
The Hangover 2: $112m
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| Mon May 23, 2011 6:02 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6786
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions @BOM. This is RS demo split. rallax wrote: I will have to get a better format for this next week, but these are the breakdown on demos, left to right.
M 20 - 35 F 20 - 35 Kids 6 - 12 Adult 35+ Teen Teen F
Green Lantern (WB)
$54 million
Planned on seeing the film: 35% 32% N/A 31% 53% 46%
Aware and not interested: 44% 45% N/A 48% 32% 37%
Not aware: 21% 23% N/A 21% 15% 17%
Judy Moody (RM)
$5 million
Planned on seeing the film: 2% 15% 40% 10% 5% 31%
Aware and not interested: 28% 30% 25% 40% 35% 24%
Not aware: 70% 55% 35% 50% 60% 45%
Mr. Popper’s Penguins (Fox)
$37 million
Planned on seeing the film: 20% 26% 55% 30% 40% 45%
Aware and not interested: 40% 32% 17% 32% 30% 23%
Not aware: 40% 42% 28% 38% 30% 32%
X-Men: First Class (Fox)
$77 million
Planned on seeing the film: 48% 40% N/A 34% 70% 42%
Aware and not interested: 45% 48% N/A 52% 25% 46%
Not aware: 7% 12% N/A 14% 5% 12%
Super 8 (Par)
$27 million
Planned on seeing the film: 37% 39% N/A 39% 37% 34%
Aware and not interested: 33% 33% N/A 30% 36% 36%
Not aware: 30% 28% N/A 31% 27% 30%
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Mon May 23, 2011 12:14 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Something isn't right with the Poppers Penguins tracking. This seems like it will be a huge dud.
_________________
Making Predictions Great Again!
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| Mon May 23, 2011 12:24 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions So Super 8 apparently has higher "want to see" numbers than Green Lantern but is tracking at half the amount. Oooooooooookay. I guess they're basing that entirely on the "not aware" section.
And Mr. Popper's Penguins should do well but probably won't open to $37M. $20-25M is more reasonable.
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| Mon May 23, 2011 12:26 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Hmm interesting that Hangover is tracking high-80's as max and none of the openers are supposed to cross $100m for 5-days. I can't see any of these missing $95m for 5-days. I think for Super 8 "want to see" does not always translate to will see, though if these are the same source then ofcourse it is unfair and just wrong. I have faith in Paramount and they should help Super8 open well. The numbers will increase by the time the weekend actually arrives. I think $40m is achievable Anyways I see Super8 being a quite weekend and if that does happen then X-Men will be the most beneficial of all the movies, that with good reviews and an expected good legs, everything is looking good for it right now  Poppers is just tracking a little overboard, the movie does not look bad but still mid-to-high 30's is too high as of now.
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| Mon May 23, 2011 12:56 pm |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm
Posts: 11637
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions Things are looking good for X-Men. The TV spots have been everywhere in recent weeks which have obviously helped.
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| Mon May 23, 2011 1:13 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6786
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Re: May 26-30 Predictions http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=108071 mtc panda 76 hangover 125 both are five day Panda is screwed while hangover looks like it will be HUMONGOUS.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Mon May 23, 2011 1:15 pm |
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