Most people seem to agree Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, and Toy Story 3 are guaranteed Best Picture nominations. And, for the purposes of this thread, let's say the Coens' True Grit, too, is a surefire nominee, even though an audience has yet to see it. And most people seem to agree the main battle will be between The Social Network and The King's Speech, with 127 Hours and True Grit standing right behind.

Which films do you expect to fill the other 3/4 slots? The Blind Side/District 9/An Education/A Serious Man type nominees, films which have enough passionate support to be on the list, even if a win seems out of reach.

Right now, I would say:

Black Swan
The Town

And... Winter's Bone? Somewhere? Shutter Island? Secretariat? Rabbit Hole? Never Let Me Go? Love & Other Drugs? Hereafter? Get Low? The Fighter? Blue Valentine? Biutiful? Another Year? Animal Kingdom?

BTW, I still feel Summit should try to remind people of The Ghost Writer...

Certainly not Biutiful. The reception of it is quite mixed. Shutter Island won't make the cut either.


I'd hope for something totally unexpected (and deserving) like How to Train Your Dragon (but it won't happen).

But Biutiful is still Bardem and Iñárritu. And the mixed reviews are mixed in a way which suggests even people who are uncertain at first will continue to grapple with the film. They're not...dismissive, You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger-type reviews.

Secretariat has an 85 at BFCA and is crowned Critics Choice, so it does have a shot. Still, the vibe isn't as strong as Seabiscuit.

Well, yeah, but Seabiscuit made it with only five BP slots...so Secretariat doesn't need to be as strong as Seabiscuit.

Blue Valentine seemed to move a lot of people at Sundance and Cannes, and Gosling and Williams are well-regarded young talents. But the limited-post-Christmas release the Weinsteins are giving it concerns me.

Made in Dagenham is seeming stronger and stronger.

With ten nominees, it's high time a documentary was nominated for Best Picture. And Inside Job has earned universally great reviews...

Doubtful, though, right? No actor support, for one.

If any doc were to get a BP nom this year, it'd be Waiting for Superman.

But that won't happen.

I agree that a documentary nomination seems like a long-shot. The chances of it happening will be much more likely if high profile releases like True Grit or Black Swan don't catch on as much as we're assuming they will.

That siad, Inside Job does have better reviews and a more discussed subject matter than Waiting for Superman. Then again, Waiting for Superman looks to have a more promising box office run. Which doesn't necessarily mean much for the Oscars, but this is a pretty twilight zone scenario we're talking about here.

I'm almost sure Black Swan isn't getting in. Classic heavy art film ignored by the box-office and academy... IMO.

Hell no @ Love and Other Drugs. I'd be surprised if it got over 40% on RT