Random question: Do you have any idea on how many tickets HBP sold?

A quick search of HP6's last few weeks in the Top 10 didn't reveal any admissions updates, but I can give you a rough estimate based on it's average ticket prices opening weekend and then comparing that to it's final total of Y8b.

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince:
2day - Y672,875,650 (641,700 admissions)
3day - Y988,118,023
5day - Y1,710,445,516
6day - Y2,207,902,950 (1,839,893 admissions)


Looks like approx. Y1100 was the average ticket price over the first 6 days in release. The avg. ticket price was much lower than I was expecting, it's below the national average.

Using that as a basis, it looks to have sold approx. 7-7.5m tickets in total. It could be a little less though. The avg. ticket price may seem low due to big pre-sales, so I'd say as low as 6.5m, with 7m or a little higher possible.

If you were wanting to use the total ticket sales to project a possible total for HP7, it won't be that easy. The attendance for Harry Potter has dropped every film.

But, for fun, let's say HP7 sells about 7m like HP6, and 80% or more of it's gross comes from 3D like with Alice and Toy Story, we could be looking at a total of $130m.

Okay, thanks. OW->total extrapolation will be good enough for me.

Why so low for Salt? Is that official projections? I figured with Angelina over in Japan promoting it would probably open #1. What do you think the gross will be?

It's not that it's "low", but rather there are currently so many big films in release it has so little room.

Arrietty/Toy Story/Bayside 3 could reach close to $100m or more.
Inception and Pokemon 13 around $40-50.

As a result, the screen count for Salt is 328. Which is decent, but it's very average for a Hollywood release.

Screens are pretty much at their max capacity right now due (not a single release has even lost any due to contracts, theater rules, etc) to all the big films, and have been for a few weeks. Toy Story 3 opened on over 100 less than Up, Inception was estimated to get 600+ but settled for 523, and there was almsot no growth for Arrietty or Bayside 3 when compared to similar films.

The later a film opened this summer, the less screens they were looking at. Early/Mid August releases will probably lack in their screen counts, too.

And they are indeed official projections. My prediction is about $3.5m/$22m.

Update: Most Recent updates will be in blue.

Summer 2010 Big 3 Watch

Bayside Shakedown 3:
2day total - Y971,993,832 ($11.08m), 707,399 admissions
5day total - Y1.5b ($17.2m), 1.1m admissions
7day total - Y1.9b ($21.5m), 1.55m admissions
9day total - Y2,501,584,528 ($28.4m), 2m admissions
16day total - Y3,662,187,666 ($42.3m), 2.9m admissions
17day total - Y3.92b ($45.1m), 3,005,883 admissions
19day total - Y4.2b ($48.3m), 3.2m admissions
23day total - Y4,599,620,600 ($52.6m), 3,531,063 admissions
25day total - Y4.7b ($53.8m), 3.6m admissions

Toy Story 3:
2day total - Y977,332,877 ($11.04m), 649,190 admissions
6day total - Y1.5b ($17.2m), 1m admissions
9day total - Y2,373,155,050 ($27.3m), 1.5m admissions
12day total - Y3b ($34.5m), 2m admissions
16day total - Y3.88b ($44.3m), 2.4m admissions
19day total - Y4,436,000,550 ($51m), 3,002,391 admissions


The Borrower Arrietty:
2day total - Y895,561,635 ($10.35m), 680,234 admissions
3day total - Y1.35b ($15.6m), 1,038,138 admissions
9day total - Y2,617,702,260 ($29.9m), 2,062,166 admissions


Toy Story 3 is now out-pacing Bayside Shakedown 3 in gross, and it's unlikely to change for several weeks. The only way Bayside Shakedown 3 can catch it now is late in it's run when Toy Story 3 is no longer in release. $60m after this weekend is in reach now, JURiNG , and if it does cross $60m after 23 days, it's safe to call $100m for it.

86% of Toy Story 3's gross is now coming from 3D.

Avatar - $116m in 3D (70% of total)
Alice in Wonderland - $110m in 3D (82% of total)

Boy, is 3D killing it in Japan (event films in 3D that is, all others haven't changed). Makes me even more curious to see how well Umizaru 3 and Harry Potter 7 - I perform later this year.

Toy Story 3 match it's last weekend with just 3 weekdays, but it's not the only one.

Pokemon 13 raises it's total to Y2.1b ($24m) after 20 days, adding close to $4m from Mon-Thur.

2day total - Y629m ($7.1m), 601,602 admissions
9day total - Y1.1b ($12.5m), 1m admissions
16day total - Y1.8b ($20.3m), 1.7m admissions
20day total - Y2.1b ($24m), 2m admissions

Most of the films probably saw strong weekdays like these two. Last week of July to Mid August are some of the best days of the year.

that's a great news!

thanks copse

what is your ts3 prediction for this wknd? 5.8m-6m?

^^
Thanks for clearing that up for me, Corpse. I was just expecting a better opening, based on its solid debuts in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and India last week. But that screen count is discouraging. Sony maybe should have waited til the marketplace cleared up a bit. Hopefully it has a more leggy run because, obviously, Japan is a huge market.

I don't think it'll drop that well yet.

When Saturday ticket sales start to come in from the ususal locations, I'll try to predict a possible weekend total from those.



If it does open to 3-3.5m, a $20m total is certainly solid.

Early, pre-Saturday morning pre-sales @ Miyoshi, MOVIX Cinema

tickets sold/tickets available before 12:00PM

Naruto Shippuuden The Movie 4 - 151/228
The Borrower Arrietty - 124/623
Pokemon 13 - 119/332
Toy Story 3 - 96/325
Salt - 86/155
Inception - 51/124
Hatch the Honeybee - 45/110
Bayside 3 - 31/110


The younger skewing a film is, the better they do during the morning and day. Evening and night sales take a sharp drop. So Naruto, Pokemon, and Hatch all look stronger than they actually will be.

In any case, great for Naruto, it looks to sell out most of it's morning and day showings going by this. It could edge Bayside 3 out for the Top 5 this weekend if it's lucky.

Update: Saturday, 12:00PM
Location: MOVIX Cinema, Miyoshi, Tokyo

Total Morning Ticket Sold/Total Seats Available:

The Borrower Arrietty - 590/2,907
Inception - 402/948
Naruto Shippuuden The Movie 4: Lost Tower - 386/808
Salt - 363/775
Toy Story 3 - 352/1,176
Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose! - 296/760
Pokemon 13 Diamond & Pearl Ruler of Illusions Zoroark - 235/996
The Adventures of Hatch The Honeybee - 95/440

Any updates from tonight?

Kamen Rider looks like it will open mid-range. Are there any other Japanese releases in August that are expected to open well?

It looks like Bayside will barely hit the low end of predictions while The Borrower Arrietty is set to exceed them. Pretty good for Toy Story 3 to hit the high end of predictions. I wonder if those predictions for Bayside Shakedown were made by fanboys or were they expecting a very good film that led to those overpredictions?

Kaiden Restaurant the Movie might do fairy well, the anime frequently ranks in the Top 10 best ratings each week.

Many are talking about Dogwood, so it may do well. Toho is distributing, so that's a plus for the film.

Though Toho has almost killed other local distributors, only two non-Toho films have grossed over $20m this year. Only films with a fanbase from other distributors are doing any business now.

As for Bayside 3, fanboys perhaps, but it comes down to the film getting mixed reviews (some felt it was unnecessary to make a third film after 7 years), and not gaining much teen/young adult audience which was always a demographic it was going to struggle with. The fierce competition this month could also be a factor.

Saturday admissions from the usual locations should be available within the next few hours. Gotta wait for everyone to wake up (7:15AM)

Saturday Admissions
Usual Locations (10-15% of the market)
Tickets Sold/Seats Available

The Borrower Arrietty - 14,983/59,107 (-28%)
Toy Story 3 - 14,204/41,532 (-5%)
Salt - 13,049/29,714
Inception - 9,912/24,275 (-35%)
Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose! - 8,920/24,691 (-22%)
Naruto Shipuudden The Movie 4: The Lost Tower - 8,786/21,815
Pokemon 13 Diamond & Pearl Ruler of Illusions: Zoroark - 7,188/20,127 (-20%)
The Adventures of Hatch the Honeybee and the Melody Story of Courage in the Plains - 1,649/6,447


Very close between Arrietty and Toy Story 3 (superb hold). Sunday will decide which one gets their No.1 spot back after being bumped down by Inception and it's previews last weekend. Right now Toy Story 3 has the upper-hand with it's 3D prices.

Looks like Salt will come in 3rd this weekend, topping Inception by a narrow margin.

Bayside Shakedown 3 should hold off Naruto Shipuudden 4 to stay in the Top 5 this weekend.

Thanks for the update Corpse.

What kind of opening will that be for Salt? 3-4 mil? Is that pretty good considering circumstances?

Early Weekend Predictions:

1 3 Toy Story 3 - Y475-Y500 million ($5.5m-5.8m)
2 2 The Borrower Arrietty - Y465-490 million ($5.3m-5.6m)
3 N Salt - Y325-350 million ($3.5m-3.9m)
4 1 Inception - Y250-275 million ($2.9m-3.3m)
5 4 Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose! - Y240-260 million ($2.8m-3.2m)
6 N Naruto Shipuudden The Movie 4: The Lost Tower - Y200-225 million ($2.3m-2.6m)
7 5 Pokemon 13 Diamond & Pearl Ruler of Illusions: Zoroark - Y175-200 million ($2m-2.3m)

I posted my early predictions based on Saturday's admissions above.

Y300 million should be the very low-end for Salt, so $3-3.4 would be the lowest it does. It should come in closer to $4m. Which is very solid, and pretty much locks up $20m and puts a total in the mid/high 20's in reach.

(I wonder if her telling the press she took her kids shopping for Ponyo and Totoro toys this week made any difference )

that's a really good news!

lol thanks Corpse. Your analysis is invaluable and that is good news for Salt. I'm sure Angelina's sucking up to the press certainly helped. Are movies usually pretty leggy in Japan?

PS sorry, I'm kind of a noob to the Japanese market

oh, and 60m total by sunday is a sure thing, i assume?

is there any film with potential to hurt its run in the future? dragon maybe?

Yeah, there's little rush out factor and people tend to see a film over an extended period. That, along with having 2-Day weekends, allow great legs and weekdays that make up more than 50% of a film's total gross in most cases year-round.

Poor multipliers are 3/4.
Average multipliers are 5/6.
Good multipliers are 7/8.
Great multipliers are 9/10.

Local films tend to have slightly higher multipliers than imported ones, and some films every year go well above a multiplier of 10, too.

June's Confessions, currently in it's 9th week in the Top 10, has a multiplier of 14 (with no expansions) so far and should reach 15 before it's finished.




It'll be close, but probably. TS3 will have grossed roughly Y5.3b ($61m) after Sunday based on Saturday's numbers.

Dragon may give it a slight dent, but being Dreamworks, it'll be limited. None of their films have grossed over $25m. Being an original movie though will help Dragon. Dreamwork's sequels see big dropoffs.