It performed very well on opening day. Good enough to open at No.1 I'm confident in saying, now.

From the theaters and screens I've reported on lately, admissions were only 15% below Alice in Wonderland, and 10% below Bayside Shakedown 3.

It's difficult to calculate an average ticket price for TS3 since it's in 3D and IMAX, which are of course the most expensive tickets ($26 USD), but to counter this, the 2D tickets are much cheaper ($12.50 USD) since it's animated and attracts a younger audience that don't pay adult price ($20 USD).

Bayside Shakedown 3 won't see the Sunday drop Toy Story 3 will experience, and it's impossible to know when the people (2m of them) who purchased advance tickets for Pokemon 13 will turn out, but regardless of all that, Toy Story 3 should have No.1 locked up.

It'll just need to survive Studio Ghibli next weekend. Next weekend is going to be a record for sure.

TS3 - $10.5 million.

Predators - ??

The Toy Story 3 opening of Y940,000,000 ($10.6m) is quite incredible.

As long as it's not hit too hard by The Borrower Arrietty next weekend, $75m is a lock.

I'll update on it and the others in a few minutes.

Theater Chains are starting to report in for the weekend:

TOHO
1. Toy Story 3
2. Bayside THE MOVIE3
3. Pocket Monsters Diamond & Pearl Illusion
4. Predators
5. Confession 　
6. Fowler Desperately Sword
7. Adel / reagents and resurrection Pharaoh
8. Anpanman Movie (2010)
9. Iron Man 2
10. Sex and the City 2

Since Toy Story 3's estimated weekend is known, I'll provide some comparisons in a few.

Top 10 Opening Weekends of 2010

1. April, Alice in Wonderland (Disney) - $14.3m (2day), 859 screens - $16,644 pta, 828,149 admissions
2. Dec. 09, One Piece Strong World (TOEI) - $11.7m (2day), 188 screens - $62,192 pta, 819,738 admissions
3. July, Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose! (Toho) - $11.1m (2day), 447 screens - 24,789 pta, 707,399 admissions
July, Toy Story 3 (Disney) - $10.6m (2day), 525 screens - $20,190 pta, 625,000 admissions
4. Dec. 09, Up (Disney) - $7m (2day), 663 screens - $10,461 pta, 440,804 admissions
5. Dec. 09, Avatar (Fox) - $6.61m (2day)/$14.56m (5day), 839 screens - $7,881 pta
6. March, Doraemon South Sea Adventure (Toho) - $6.12m (2day), 366 screens - $16,710 pta, 498,198 admissions
7. April, Nodame Cantabile: The Movie II (Toho) - $6.11m (2day), 410 screens - $14,915 pta, 437,613 admissions
8. April, Detective Conan Lost Ship in the Sky (Toho) - $6.1m (2day), 352 screens - $17,339 pta, 471,527 admissions
9. Dec. 09, Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider W & Dikeido (TOEI) - $5.01m (2day), 292 screens - $17,882 pta, 396,178 admissions
10. Dec. 09, Nodame Cantabile: The Movie I (Toho) - $4.36m (2day), 409 screens - $10,612 pta, 317,302 admissions


All of Toy Story 3's numbers are still estimates (admissions calculated by me using Up's avg. ticket price), but it's not going to be underestimated enough to rise above Bayside Shakedown 3, the gap is a bit too big, and clearly not overestimated enough to drop below Up. So 4th biggest weekend of the year is locked up, and incredibly strong, narrowly beating Finding Nemo which was the top opener for Pixar. Overall, I believe it's the 3rd biggest opening for an animated movie in USD (6th in Yen).


This year is so massive. Everything is overperforming or matching expecations it seems. $2.5b will probably be cleared.

Avatar - $165m
Alice in Wonderland - $135m
Bayside Shakedown 3 - $95-$115m
Harry Potter 7 - $95-$115m
Toy Story 3 - $70-$90m
Umizaru 3 - $70-$90m
The Borrower Arrietty - $70-$90m
One Piece Strong World - $55-$60m
Up - $55-$60m


10th spot for the year is undecided. Nodame Cantabile 2 has grossed in the low/mid 40's, Pokemon 13 could get $50m again, and there could still be a few surprises this fall.

Admissions comparison (usual Toho and Movix locations) for the weekend


Saturday:
Pokemon 13 - 32410/44891
Toy Story 3 - 27179/57086
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 26417/56308

Sunday:
Pokemon 13 - 34871/44891
Toy Story 3 - 31347/52252
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 26743/49965

Weekend:
Pokemon 13 - 67281/89782
Toy Story 3 - 58526/109338
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 53160/106273


Looks like a large portion of the tickets sold for TS3 were 3D because, while very good, this doesn't indicate a gross of Y940m. I doubt other locations would have made such a significant difference.

Bayside Shakedown 3 sold a little over 80,000 from these locations last weekend, and grossed Y972m for instance. Of the 82,000+ for BS3 last weekend, 47,000 were for Saturday, just 1,000 less than Alice in Wonderland sold opening day, yet BS3 opened Y170m below on Saturday, Y530m vs Y700m, because of the 3D prices for Alice.

Opening Days:

Title/Admissions at usual locations/Yen Gross (USD Gross)

Alice in Wonderland - 48,000, Y700m ($7.6m)
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 47,000, Y530m ($6m)
Toy Story 3 - 27,179, Y450m ($5.1m)

You can definitely see how much 3D is boosting films in Japan by the comparison above. Normally, 27,179 would result in an opening day of about Y300m ($3.4m) when all locations are included.

Note, admissions I use are NOT for the entire country, but only a small portion of locations (about 15%).

Post above updated with TS3's Opening Day and more.

Hmm interesting that people are watching TS3 in 3D. That presents a solid opportunity for HP7 to open big and get help from 3D as well

3D is pretty funny in Japan.

It's accounting for the majority of a film's gross, for example: Avatar - 66%, Alice in Wonderland - 82% (!), Clash of the Titans - 67%.

But a poll released last week by a blogger on the JapanTimes revealed that 75% of the Japanese have NOT watched a film in 3D. Very few people in Japan go to the movies, but it's a funny comparison when you see how much 3D is adding to grosses.




And BIG news! Toy Story 3 was estimated at Y940m ($10.6m), but the actual just came in at Y977m ($11.1m)!


Saturday - Y457m (305,855 admissions
Sunday - Y520m (343,335 admissions)
Weekend - Y977m (649,190 admissions)


This means the avg. ticket price for TS3 came in at Y1505 or $17 USD, an increase from Up, and I believe a tiny increase from Alice in Wonderland even.

I'd also agree with the $90-$100m range Archangel projected today after seeing that Sunday increase. Another $100m film this year (could end up with 6!) would be just crazy, but so welcome.


All-Time Opening Weekends (Animated)

1. 2004, Howl's Moving Castle (Toho) - Y1.484b ($14m)/ 1,104,980 admissions (448 screens)
2. 2009, One Piece Film Strong World (Toei) - Y1.038b ($11.7m) / 819,738 admissions (188 screens)
3. 2008, Ponyo (Toho) - Y1.025b ($9.7m) / 812,557 admissions (481 screens)
4. 2001, Spirited Away (Toho) - Y1.001b ($8.6m) / 810,006 admissions (318 screens)
5. 2010, Toy Story 3 (Disney) - Y977m ($11.1m) / 649,190 admissions admissions (525 screens)
6. 2006, Tales From Earthsea (Toho) - Y907m ($7.9m) / 672,696 admissions (435 screens)
4. 2003, Finding Nemo (Disney) - Y893m ($10.4m) / 722,000 admissions (654 screens)
8. 2007, Pokemon 10 Rise of Darkrai (Toho) - Y781m ($6.5m) / 657,132 admissions (351 screens)
9. 2004, The Incredibles (Disney) - Y750m ($7.3m) / 612,982 admissions (689 screens)
10. 2008, Pokemon 11 Giratina and the Sky Warrior (Toho) - Y704m ($6.7m) / 636,709 admissions (359 screens)

USD Only:



Admissions Only:




Pokemon 13 may appear on these charts (USD very likely) with the current exchange rate when it's opening figure is known.

And these charts will appear again next week when Studio Ghibli's latest, The Borrower Arrietty, opens.

It's been a big 7/8 months for animated films in Japan.

Nice for TS3, very nice.

Post edited to fix the Nemo confusion.

Really good analysis thanks Corpse.
It is still surprising to see that 75% population have never seen a 3D ratio. I guess the multiple viewings for 3D are huge in Japan then.

Excellent number for TS3 with 11.1m. I would not count out 100m still the competition ahead looks very strong.

There is Obon festival coming up in its 5th week. If I remember right Potter movies got big boost bcos of that. I am hoping for 10x+ multi.

The minimum will be a multiplier of about 7.5, so $80m should be locked up. The only way I can see it miss that goal, is if The Borrower Arrietty hits it hard next weekend.


Shikoku reported in with their Top 10 this weekend. Only Warner left to report in, then the National Top 10 will be revealed.

TOHO
1. Toy Story 3
2. Bayside Shakedown 3
3. Pokemon 13
4. Predators
5. Confessions
6. Fowler Desperately Sword
7. The Adventures of Adele
8. Anpanman Movie (2010)
9. Iron Man 2
10. Sex and the City 2
___________________________________________________

Shikoku
1. Pokemon 13
2. Toy Story 3
3. Bayside Shakedown 3
4. Predators
5. Confessions
6. The Adventures of Adele
7. Anpanman Movie (2010)
8. Sex and the City 2
9. Outrage
10. Piecing Me Back Together

thanks corpse

ts3 is so gonna cross 100m mark here

Warner didn't report in this weekend, so the National Top 10 is now available.

Weekend Rankings, July 10-11, 2010




1 N Toy Story 3 (Disney)
2 N Pokemon 13 Ruler of Illusions: Zoroark (Toho)
3 1 Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose! (Toho) 2
4 N Predators (Fox)
5 2 Confessions (Toho) 6
6 N Fowler Desperate Sword (Toei)
7 3 The Extraordinary Adventures of Adele (Asmik Ace) 2
8 N Anpanman 21 Movie (2010) (TTC)
9 5 Sex and the City 2 (Warner Bros.) 6
10 4 Iron Man 2 (Paramount) 5


Admissions and select figures will be available later today.

And this might just be a record top 3 or 5, or even weekend.

Very good start for Toy Story 3!

Bayside Shakedown 3 being #3 in its second weekend has gotta be at least a bit disappointing...

It is. It looks to have dropped about 35%, which is a little steep when compared to other big openers. I could be off on the 35% drop, it's only based on 10-15% of locations for the weekend.

On the other hand, something like 35% isn't all that bad. It'd remain ahead of Bayside Shakedown 2 in USD with such a drop. But reviews are very mixed, so WOM may not be the all that great. And it's second weekend happened to see Toy Story 3 overperform, and Pokemon continue it's yearly continue success despite severe competition again. So ranking 3rd wasn't unexpected, it was always a possibility after it's opening weekend came in just a little below expectations.

Pokemon is an interesting franchise. No matter what opens against it, and it's had the biggest films such as Ponyo, Harry Potter, Pirates, and now Toy Story, it's fanbase remains loyal and always return year after year, unfazed by competition. And it probably ranks 1st in admissions this weekend.

Toy Story 3 - Y977m ($11.1m), 649,190 admissions (525 screens)
Pokemon 13 - Y630m ($7.1m), 601,602 admissions (369 screens)
Bayside Shakedown 3 - exceeded Y2.5b ($28.5m+) in 9 days.
Predators - 186,659 admissions (373 screens)
Confessions - exceeded Y3b ($34m) after 6 weeks.
Desperate Sword - 70,783 admissions (256 screens)

Toy Story 3 even won in admissions this weekend, very good.

Pokemon 13 pretty much matches the last few films in the franchise. In USD, it's the highest opening for a film in the series.

No admissions were available for Bayside Shakedown 3, but exceeding Y2.5b ($28.5m+) in 9 days is impressive.

With 186,659 admissions for Predators, a weekend of Y240m-Y270m ($2.7m-$3.1m) looks good.

Confessions keeps performing well, $40m will be crossed by the end of the month.

Desperate Sword's 70,783 admissions should be about Y90m-Y100m (about $1m).



I wish admissions were available for Bayside Shakedown 3 this weekend.

The above post has been edited slightly to include more numbers.

And 82% of Toy Story 3's weekend gross was from 3D screens, 3D - $9.1m, 2D - $2m, and 94% dubbed vs 6% subbed. wow.

Looks like it's going to be right up there with Alice in Wonderland which consitently had over 80% of it's total gross coming from 3D screens. Alice: 3D - $110m, 2D - $25m, Total - $135m.

Pixar Comparison

Dec. 2003, Finding Nemo - Opening: Y893m ($10.4m), 722,000 admissions / Total: Y11.0b ($102m), 12.2x multiplier.

Dec. 2004, The Incredibles - Opening: Y750m ($7.3m), 612,982 admissions / Total: 9.5b ($76m), 10.1x multiplier.

July 2006, Cars - Opening: Y380m ($3.4m), 350,747 admissions / Total: Y2.3b ($18.5m), 6x multiplier.

July 2007, Ratatouille - Opening: YUnknown ($4.1m), Unknown admissions / Total: Y3.9b ($36m). Approx. 8.5x multiplier.

Dec. 2008, Wall-E - Opening: Y452m ($4.8m), 419,748 admissions / Total: Y4b ($44m), 8.8x multiplier.

Dec. 2009, Up - Opening: Y627m ($7m), 440,804 admissions / Total: Y4.8b ($54.5m), 7.7x multiplier.

July 2010, Toy Story 3 - Opening: Y977m ($11.1m), 649,190 admissions


Possible Total for Toy Story 3, using the avg. multiplier of the past 6 films, would be Y8.7b ($98m).

___________________________________________________________________________________

Pokemon Comparison

July 2004, Pokemon 7 - Opening: Y501m ($4.6m), Unknown admissions / Total: Y4.4b ($38m), 8.7x multiplier.

July 2005, Pokemon 8 - Opening: Y536m ($5m), 504,402 admissions / Total: Y4.3b ($38.5m), 8x multiplier.

July 2006, Pokemon 9 - Opening: Y416m ($3.6m), 479,006 admissions / Total: Y3.5b ($31m), 8.3x multiplier.

July 2007, Pokemon 10 - Opening: Y781m ($6.4m), 657,132 admissions / Total: Y5b ($47.2m), 6.5x multiplier.

July 2008, Pokemon 11 - Opening: Y703m ($6.7m), 636,709 admissions / Total: Y4.8b ($53.3m), 6.8x multiplier.

July 2009, Pokemon 12 - Opening: Y672m ($6.9m), 641,697 admissions / Total: Y4.7b ($51.6m), 7x multiplier.

July 2010, Pokemon 13 - Opening: Y630m ($7.1m), 601,602 admissions


Possible Total for Pokemon 13, using the avg. multiplier of the past 6 films, would be Y4.7b ($53m).

is it okay to say 80m is low end for this movie?
and what is ur prediction for next week's drop?

btw, great thread!

Yeah, $80m as the low end sounds reasonable.

As for next weekend, a drop near 20/25% would be my prediction. But it depends on how big The Borrower Arrietty is.

Unlike Pokemon which has a set fanbase that never hurts any film they open near or against, Studio Ghibli's audience may overlap a bit with Pixar's.

The Borrower Arrietty isn't directed by Hayao Miyazaki, so we can probably rule out a huge opening (it'll still open big though) and $150m+ total that his films see, but the non-Miyazaki films do well on their own, too.

The Cat Returns (indirect sequel to 1995's Whisper of the Heart) finished with Y6.46b in 2002, which was about $54m with the exchange rate back then, but today it would be roughly $73m.

Tales From Earthsea opened to Y907m in 2006, and finished with Y7.65b, which would equal just over $10m for the opening, and an $86m total today.

So, even films not directed by Hayao Miyazki from Studio Ghibli have performed very well.

I'm not going to re-quote the Weekend Rankings for the third time (I'll run out of things to post about on Wednesday that way :p), but the actual for Predators comes in at Y243m or $2.75m.

It's a good opening that should lead to a finish in the low teens, $12/$13m probably.

Terrific for both Pokemon and Toy Story 3!