HARRY POTTER 7-1: Deathly Hallows (INTL.)



Harry Potter 6: HBP - viewtopic.php?f=12&t=51491
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - viewtopic.php?f=12&t=31574
Harry Potter 4: GOF - viewtopic.php?f=12&t=13821

November 19th, 2010....The end begins

HA. I knew you will make this one. It is going to be huge overseas and the title "Beginning of the End" just helps the marketing more. With 3D this is going to pass 1B for sure. Obviously this is going to win Overseas title for the year. Actually there is a chance that this ends up winning the year but that is still way doubtful.

I think euro will be below dollar by the time DH1 opens. Enough to keep it below Potter 6.

Well this is the key INTL. thread this year, there's no question in my mind that HP7-I; now back in November, will crush every single movie out there.

All that's in doubt is the quality of the movie and how well it ties across until the next part....if it's at or higher than the quality of HP5/HP6...then this is a lock for $700m i think. Expect massive opening figures (each HP flick has either held steady or improved on the previous in recent installments).

That's i guess the only spoiler, LOL, though with 3D and this being the final one, i think it will outopen HP5/HP6 in most countries.

No. That is essentially impossible unless there is a complete collapse. Euro countries accounted for around a third of HBP's gross. If the Euro was half its value when HBP was released - that is from around $0.71 instead of $1.42, then HBP would have grossed around $520m. Add 3D to that and you've got around $650m.

The Euro is not going to fall to 70c - hopefully. With a more expected mark of $1.00, and assuming DH1 would have the same performance as HBP removing 3D and exchange rate fluctuations, then DH1 would gross around $710m with 3D.

I think it will perform slightly better than HBP considering the winter season, so $750m or so given a $1.00 Euro.

$830m if the Euro doesn't change.

NO. You are assuming 3D would be 100% of ticket sold. I dont see that happening for potter. I am expecting 2d/3d split to be like 40/60. Plus potter is constantly losing audience with every release( P3 was an anomaly).this will probably lose another 10% after the mediocre P6.

I think Euro will increase by the time November comes.

1b int fo sho

What? I am not assuming 3D would be 100% tickets sold, I'm not stupid for god's sake. I'm giving it a 25% increase. Using your 60/40 3D/2D split and the US ticket price:

(0.6*10.8 + 0.4*7.8)/7.8 = 1.23

See? We're actually using essentially the same bump. Please think.

I hope so and think so, the situation has stabilised a little bit since the extreme lows of a couple weeks ago, hoping it will continue to increase form here on out.

Some EUR to USD Comparisons during the time of each HP release.

2001 - HP1 - 1 EUR = 0.89 USD
2002 - HP2 - 1 EUR = 1.01 USD
2003 - HP3 - 1 EUR = 1.22 USD
2005 - HP4 - 1 EUR = 1.17 USD
2007 - HP5 - 1 EUR = 1.37 USD
2009 - HP6 - 1 EUR = 1.39 USD
TODAY = 1 EUR = 1.2 USD

The EURO before the crisis was peddling around the 1.3 to 1.38 (heigh for 2010 in January). I think in a couple of months it can crawl back to around 1.3.

Factoring in 3D and increases in ticket prices, HP7-I will be OK.

I find it kind of ironic that international sections of BO more and more become debates about exchange rates.

Which makes it fun yet fustrating at the same time. Boy i wish for the days of 2008 like exchange rates pre-crisis, that was huge and one of the key reasons which allowed HP5 to pass even HP4.

HP7 might be the only movie left in the year that has any chance at $600m overseas. Considering the strength (or lack thereof) of the euro, i've got concerns that movie may not hit $600m. Sex And The City 2 is currently being hampered by this in the overseas markets.

Umm, 3D will more than make up for that. Weak Euro or not, Sex and the City 2 and Prince of Persia and Robin Hood are all on track for $200+ million overseas.

I would've thought at least one of them would crack $300m, unfortunately not. Mediocure results in the international markets so far this year.

We now have our Teaser poster (thanks to the thread over at Cinemania). The trailer is epic though shows too much, they didn't need to show too much of Voldermort, we now what's gonna happen, don't spoil the audiences with iconic shots such as the duel at the end.

Yes but then it makes it interesting if they keep the audience thinking what kind of thing will be included in this release

The trailer obviously amped up the emotion and key bits...the only bits missing from this trailer is that treasure seeking other-side of the books. The color palette as well on this trailer is a bit grim, probably on purpose due to the material at play...definately not as warm as HP6 and dare i say it...looks almost like Prisoner of Azkhabahn (my least favourite movie).

Hope there's still a bit of magic and warmth....and they amp up the nostalgia factor.

I'm sure there's going to be at least 1 more theatrical cut....i'm actually quite surprised with this released trailer because it doesn't play the nostalgia card. If there was a time to play that card it would be in early teasers such as this.

I think they still have enough time. They are trying to just build up the hype now, by showing scenes from both the movies. I think there will be a lot of non-fans who might have seen HP1 and will be willing to part money for the finale following up the series through TV channels (multiple showings every month ). The marketing seems to try and lure them out for now whereas the rest of the fans will have their trailers during the last heavy marketing.

Though I am not sure why they are marketing these movies so heavily (Twilight and HP movies), they know that the loyal fanbase will turn out for these movies no matter what. The rest would be like 1-5% casual viewers, for those they can actually not waste the marketing money, but that's just me....

The trailer pretty much showed everything in Book 7. To stay spoiler free, the only part I did not see were the Manor scenes.

I wonder what they have to gain by showing all these scenes, it's not like they need to give audiences the money shots really.....Harry Potter is not an unknown quantity.

Look at the ROTK trailer, they didn't show everything, kept it simple epic and emotional at the same time.

HP7's trailer is very good but i think they could made it that more emotional

I'm with you here, this trailer is just showing too much too fast, i would've though that they want to save the trailer for latter in the year.....the original teaser released was quite enough for now.

It's pretty mind-blowing to now think that we're almost certainly locked in for 3 $1billion + movies this year. It would be a mega dissapointment if HP7-I doesn't join the party.

HP4 - the last movie in November, would adjust to around $1.100bn.....