Every single Harry Potter movie since the fourth one rose over its predecessor.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - $249,541,069
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $290,013,036
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - $292,004,738
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - $301,959,197


The biggest increase, however, was between the first Harry Potter summer release and the subsequent November release.

Deathly Hallows: Part I is the first Potter film in five years to be released in the holiday season. I have always believed that the season is better for the Harry Potter movies than the summer and this be proven again this year. In particular competition seems really weak this year. Sure there's Narnia 3 in its fourth weekend but until then its only Rapunzel over the Thanksgiving weekend. The movie would bound to increase anyway, even without the addition of 3D. I saw $320-330 million for it back then.

However the addition of 3D will help it even more. The movie has its (sizable) core fanbase and they'll go out to see it no matter what, most of them certainly willing to pay even higher ticket prices.

So...3D + November release + weak competition + solid WoM for the previous few films = $350+ million total

eh...gonna be close. Part 2 will easily though.

IN.

Not the first, but the second.

In

Way to easy considering it has 3D. Make it $400 m!

3D + the hype of it being part 1 of the end.

I'll join.

Here are the adjusted opening weekends and totals for the HP films:

1 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $124,312,489.45 $351,092,224.55
2 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $123,796,158.83 $435,403,934.28
3 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $118,012,755.06 $349,919,211.76
4 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $117,071,492.42 $311,825,876.88
5 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $86,971,118.12 $329,354,181.23
6 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $80,965,850.07 $314,102,328.25

Now as a hypothetical, add 3D which will lead to higher grosses:

1 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $161,606,236.28 $456,419,891.91
2 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $160,935,006.47 $566,025,114.56
3 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $153,416,581.57 $454,894,975.29
4 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $152,192,940.14 $405,373,639.95
5 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $113,062,453.55 $428,160,435.60
6 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $105,255,605.09 $408,333,026.72

Bring the club to $400 m! Even without 3D, 3/6 of the HP films adjust to $350 m or more.

Keep in mind Rapunzel opens in 3D a week later. Besides, 3D or not, I don't feel that comfortable predicting a $100 million rise for a fairly stable franchise.

Sure, three adjust to over $350 million but how come the last two apparently grossed less adjusted?

I'm thinking 325M-ish. Out for now. Though I hope I'm wrong.

If the full trailer is a crowd pleaser and blows me away, maybe I'll
switch.

$160M OW/$410M total

3D is going to help boost this thing a lot!

what is your estimated % of tickets sold in 3-D, I don't think a potter film would get more than 65%

BJs Prediction:

188m (15% bump in tickets sold with 3-D premium added and 65% of the tickets 3-D) | 470m

estimated 48m tickets sold, was going for 50m tickets sold but the film would have to top 200m opening wknd and make over 90m opening day.

selling 40m tickets that would be 380m minimum, I expect 45m+ tickets to be sold

This really should be a $400m club. I think 43m tickets, which would be the lowest winter seller, but with 3D I think this will get $400m on the dot.

DH1
43m tickets
25m/18m 3D/2D tickets (58% split)
$10.30/$7.80 3D/2D avg. price
$260m/$140m 3D/2D gross
$400m total gross

2.1:1 OS:DOM
$840m OS
$1.24b WW

Okay, I raised it a little, but not that much yet.

I'm in as well till 375M but after that I need to wait for the trailer. The book was not really good and half of the people did not like it. Though its fanbase is huge which is unaffected by the quality of the book but Goblet of Fire proved that there is still a margin with a better quality book towards the movie. For the second part though this will be a piece of cake for sure but that again is having a stupid ending which might in fact confuse some of the children and adults as well.

Though as of now 370-375 looks good. I am IN for now

WTF are you talking about, deathly hallows has better grades than book 5, and 6

That was in the US. Asian markets saw the gradings quite less and they were actually equal to 6th one though 5th saw the lowest rating of all the books

Um, maybe, but we're talking about the US gross here.

Deathly Hallows has a 4.61/5 average rating on Amazon. Don't know how it can be considered anything other than a very well-loved book.

He he that is the reason I am IN the club till 375M

This will probably be the first movie where we'll get a good gauge of how much it will gross extra with 3D. Without it, it's clear that HP7-I should be in the vicinity of $300-350m. This one with 3D looks to hit $350m+.

Iron Man 2 if on 3D would easily clear $450m, pitty. Though that movie should still hit $400m-$450m.

Revised Predictions:

1) Toy Story 3 - $425m
2) Iron Man - $420m
3) Harry Potter 7 Part I - $370m
4) Shrek 4 - $360m
5) Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $290m

Despite two underperformers in a row and my firm belief in the Avatar overpredictions effect, I am sticking with this. Frankly I feel more comfortable about "just" $350+ million..but whatever...


So who else is on board?