The current 7th weekend record: Titanic, $25,907,172

The 6th weekend record is pretty much all locked up, as Titanic's 6th weekend record is $25,238,720, and we're looking at somewhere in the mid-20's drop. Avatar will need a drop better than 30% for sure to make it, possibly 20% or so.

The competition is increasing with Edge of Darkness, though that film is R rated, and won't be too direct of a hit. The super bowl isn't until the following weekend, and there are still some Golden Globe dollars to come.

I think if it holds onto theaters, which should be pretty much a lock (3D is for sure), it has a real shot at it. What say you?

Record = smashed

I expect some soft drops to come, so yes.

Fuck yes

Nope.

Will be close.


34 million this weekend

-25% to 25.9 million

It will beat the 7th weekend record by a narrow margin. Definitely not the 8th weekend

Hmm, not sure. Right now I think it'll miss...but by less than $2 million.

I think it's definitely a possibility. Not guaranteed, but it could happen.

Xiayun is projecting a $35+ million 6th weekend for Avatar. So, if Avatar makes $35 million this weekend, that would mean it needs to drop approx. 25.5% or less into the 7th weekend in order to beat Titanic's $25.9 mil record. And with the legs it is having already, that is certainly a realistic drop to consider. If Avatar makes more than $35 million this weekend, the allowed drop into 7th weekend to beat the record would be even higher.

Peace,
Mike

~ 26% drops

$31.3 million - 6th weekend
$23 million - 7th weekend

Is that an important record?

I thought the 5th weekend would be the hardest one to break...

How silly was I?!

It wasn't only you. All of us thought that Avatar cannot beat the 5th weekend record but now we are talking about 7th and 8th weekend when 6th weekend has just started

No contest. It's a lock.

Hmm, it'll probably make $33 million this weekend...so it'd need to drop less than 25% next weekend. Don't see that happening.

it will make 35m+ for sure. next weekend there are football games either. i dont see it drop more than 15%.

The chances are solid. And I thought it had NO chance a few weeks ago.

I dunno about less than 15%, but I really don't see why it would drop more than 25% next weekend when there are no playoff games like there are this weekend.

Didn't know about the storms in SoCal. Yeah, $35 million seems more likely. It could still miss the record, but barely if it does.

Unless Edge of Darkness breaks out with a 40m+ OW and hurts it, it's pretty much a lock now. It still gets to 26m even with a 27% drop.

Well, it's got a shot at the 8th weekend record of 23 million by Titanic now as well. It should needs to keep having these incredible holds.

I think so the numbers are really incredible but they are on a declining curve which would mean 7th weekend will be close and 8th will be a narrow defeat. Though the 8th weekend for Titanic was also not that heavy I think so it has a shot to break that one as well. The Valentine's weekend no chance at all though.

8th weekend will benefit from Oscar nods, but that may be offset by the Superbowl.

Yeah I am really wondering how the first weekend of February will play out.


On one hand, Oscar nominated films ALWAYS get a sizable bump the weekend after the announcement.

On the other hand - Superbowl. Hmm.

I think the Presidents Day weekend will be very good for the Oscar films, though.

Presidents Day Weekend has also Valentine's Day on sunday which should give a boost to romantic movies ( in a way it should help Avatar too since it has a romantic story )