The Avatar Prediction|Tracking Thread/ (Aug. 27 re-release)
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread I predict Avatar will pass $400 mil on Day 23.
I also predict it to break the 4th weekend and 5th weekend record.
I also predict it to pass $500 mil on day 37.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 11:30 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Also, if it gets to $500 mil on Day 37, TDK made $50 mil from that day on. Avatar will easily be making more daily than TDK at that point.
$601+ mil... HERE WE COME!
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Jan 09, 2010 11:33 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread avatar went 10 for 12 today, and sold out two of the 2-D showings, mammoth increase from yesterdays 2 sellouts, I expect a massive increase. proof http://www.fandango.com/century16anchor ... heaterpage_________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 12:18 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
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Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Chip Munkington wrote: Also, if it gets to $500 mil on Day 37, TDK made $50 mil from that day on. Avatar will easily be making more daily than TDK at that point.
$601+ mil... HERE WE COME! funny considering the time of year  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:30 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
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Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Chip Munkington wrote: I predict Avatar will pass $400 mil on Day 23.
I also predict it to break the 4th weekend and 5th weekend record.
I also predict it to pass $500 mil on day 37. I think 500m is less than 35 days. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:31 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Nazgul9 wrote: Titanic is unfriggingbelievable, at one point trailing TDK by almost $250m yet it still managed to outgross it in the end. Those are some sexy legs...  avatar will not be taken out by insane late run holds  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:33 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
| Rank | Days in Release | Day | % Change | Domestic Total | Theater Average | Theater Count | Day, Month and Year |
| 1 | Opening Day | $26,752,099 | New | $26,752,099 | $7,750 | 3,452 | Friday, December 18, 2009 |
| 1 | 2nd Day | $25,529,036 | -4.6% | $52,281,135 | $7,395 | 3,452 | Saturday, December 19, 2009 |
| 1 | 3rd Day | $24,744,346 | -3.1% | $77,025,481 | $7,168 | 3,452 | Sunday, December 20, 2009 |
| 1 | 4th Day | $16,385,820 | -33.8% | $93,411,301 | $4,747 | 3,452 | Monday, December 21, 2009 |
| 1 | 5th Day | $16,086,461 | -1.6% | $109,497,762 | $4,660 | 3,452 | Tuesday, December 22, 2009 |
| 2 | 6th Day | $16,445,291 | +2.2% | $125,943,053 | $4,764 | 3,452 | Wednesday, December 23, 2009 |
| 1 | 7th Day | $11,150,998 | -32.2% | $137,122,136 | $3,230 | 3,452 | Thursday, December 24, 2009 |
| 2 | 8th Day | $23,095,046 | +107.1% | -13.7% | $160,189,097 | $6,683 | 3,456 | Friday, December 25, 2009 |
| 1 | 9th Day | $28,274,406 | +22.4% | +10.8% | $188,463,503 | $8,181 | 3,456 | Saturday, December 26, 2009 |
| 1 | 10th Day | $24,247,681 | -14.2% | -2% | $212,711,184 | $7,016 | 3,456 | Sunday, December 27, 2009 |
| 1 | 11th Day | $19,418,139 | -19.9% | +18.5% | $232,129,323 | $5,619 | 3,456 | Monday, December 28, 2009 |
| 1 | 12th Day | $18,290,628 | -5.8% | +13.7% | $250,419,951 | $5,292 | 3,456 | Tuesday, December 29, 2009 |
| 1 | 13th Day | $18,466,123 | +1.0% | +12.3% | $268,886,074 | $5,343 | 3,456 | Wednesday, December 30, 2009 |
| 1 | 14th Day | $14,738,136 | -20.2% | +32.2% | $283,624,210 | $4,265 | 3,456 | Thursday, December 31, 2009 |
| 1 | 15th Day | $25,274,008 | +71.5% | +9.4% | $308,898,218 | $7,303 | 3,461 | Friday, January 1, 2010 |
| 1 | 16th Day | $25,835,551 | +2.2% | -8.6% | $334,733,769 | $7,465 | 3,461 | Saturday, January 2, 2010 |
| 1 | 17th Day | $17,381,129 | -32.7% | -28.3% | $352,114,898 | $5,022 | 3,461 | Sunday, January 3, 2010 |
| 1 | 18th Day | $8,094,554 | -53.4% | -58.3% | $360,209,452 | $2,339 | 3,461 | Monday, January 4, 2010 |
| 1 | 19th Day | $7,327,233 | -9.4% | -59.9% | $367,536,685 | $2,117 | 3,461 | Tuesday, January 5, 2010 |
| 1 | 20th Day | $6,909,167 | -5.7% | -62.6% | $374,445,852 | $1,996 | 3,461 | Wednesday, January 6, 2010 |
| 1 | 21st Day | $6,094,445 | -11.8% | -58.6% | $380,540,297 | $1,761 | 3,461 | Thursday, January 7, 2010 |
| 1 | 22nd Day | $13,275,000 | +117.8% | -47.5% | $393,815,000 | $3,879 | 3,422 | Friday, January 8, 2010 |
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:38 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Congratulations BJ - 7th biggest thread in the b.o. forum...
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 6:12 am |
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mark66
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread BJ wrote: Predict How Many Days it will take Avatanic to Reach 400m
Enki - 21
-BJ - 22
-DIB2 - 22
-Captain_Cold - 22
Soagg - 23
-Mark66 - 24
-Rev - 24
Predict How Many Days it will take Avatanic to Reach 500m
Enki - 29
-Soagg - 31
-BJ - 33
-DIB2 - 35
-Captain_Cold - 36
-Rev - 38 $500m = 34 days
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:29 am |
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Rev
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Congrats Soagg  on predicting the exact day Avatar passed 400m (day 23).
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:31 am |
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Jack Sparrow
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 10:59 am |
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Nazgul9
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
| Day | Avatar | Return of the King | Dead Man's Chest | The Dark Knight | Titanic |
| Wed | - | $34,450,834
- / -
$34,450,834 / 1 | - | - | - |
| Thu | - | $17,019,987
-50.6% / -
$51,470,821 / 2 | - | - | - |
| Fri | $26,752,099
- / -
$26,752,099 / 1 | $21,811,549
+28.2% / -
$73,282,370 / 3 | $55,830,600
- / -
$55,830,600 / 1 | $67,165,092
- / -
$67,165,092 / 1 | $8,658,814
- / -
$8,658,814 / 1 |
| Sat | $25,529,036
-4.6% / -
$52,281,135 / 2 | $27,492,053
+26% / -
$100,774,423 / 4 | $44,443,225
-20.4% / -
$100,273,825 / 2 | $47,650,240
-29.1% / -
$114,815,332 / 2 | $10,672,013
+23.3% / -
$19,330,827 / 2 |
| Sun | $24,744,346
-3.1% / -
$77,025,481 / 3 | $23,326,111
-15.2% / -
$124,100,534 / 5 | $35,360,729
-20.4% / -
$135,634,554 / 3 | $43,596,151
-8.5% / -
$158,411,483 / 3 | $9,307,304
-12.8% / -
$28,638,131 / 3 |
| Mon | $16,385,820
-33.8% / -
$93,411,301 / 4 | $13,563,208
-41.9% / -
$137,663,742 / 6 | $18,140,271
-48.7% / -
$153,774,825 / 4 | $24,493,313
-43.8% / -
$182,904,796 / 4 | $5,578,212
-40.1% / -
$34,216,343 / 4 |
| Tue | $16,086,461
-1.8% / -
$109,497,762 / 5 | $12,476,242
-8% / -
$150,139,984 / 7 | $15,731,919
-13.3% / -
$169,506,744 / 5 | $20,868,722
-14.8% / -
$203,773,518 / 5 | $6,003,119
+7.6% / -
$40,219,462 / 5 |
| Wed | $16,445,291
+2.2% / -
$125,943,053 / 6 | $7,544,400
-39.5% / -78.1%
$157,684,384 / 8 | $14,154,725
-10% / -
$183,661,469 / 6 | $18,377,288
-11.9% / -
$222,150,806 / 6 | $3,571,345
-40.5% / -
$43,790,807 / 6 |
| Thu | $11,150,998
-32.2% / -
$137,094,051 / 7 | $13,986,220
+85.4% / -17.8%
$171,670,604 / 9 | $12,358,033
-12.7% / -
$196,019,502 / 7 | $16,464,405
-10.4% / -
$238,615,211 / 7 | $9,178,529
+157% / -
$52,969,336 / 7 |
| Fri | $23,095,046
+107.1% / -13.7%
$160,189,097 / 8 | $19,152,196
+36.9% / -12.2%
$190,822,800 / 10 | $18,544,356
+50.1% / -66.8%
$214,563,858 / 8 | $23,232,292
+41.1% / -65.4%
$261,847,503 / 8 | $12,122,298
+32.1% / +40%
$65,091,634 / 8 |
| Sat | $28,274,406
+22.4% / +10.8%
$188,463,503 / 9 | $17,249,267
-9.9% / -37.3%
$208,072,067 / 11 | $24,846,771
+34% / -44.1%
$239,410,629 / 9 | $28,272,494
+21.7% / -40.7%
$290,119,997 / 9 | $12,466,455
+2.8% / +16.8%
$77,558,089 / 9 |
| Sun | $24,247,681
-14.2% / -2%
$212,711,184 / 10 | $14,196,641
-17.7% / -39.1%
$222,268,708 / 12 | $18,954,137
-23.7% / -46.4%
$258,364,766 / 10 | $23,661,680
-16.3% / -45.7%
$313,781,677 / 10 | $10,866,920
-12.8% / +16.8%
$88,425,009 / 10 |
| Mon | $19,418,139
-19.9% / +18.5%
$232,129,323 / 11 | $10,052,588
-29.2% / -25.9%
$232,321,296 / 13 | $7,912,691
-58.3% / -56.4%
$266,277,457 / 11 | $10,518,116
-55.5% / -57.1%
$324,299,793 / 11 | $7,942,520
-26.9% / +42.4%
$96,367,529 / 11 |
| Tue | $18,290,628
-5.8% / +13.7%
$250,419,951 / 12 | $9,615,240
-4.4% / -22.9%
$241,936,536 / 14 | $7,490,004
-5.3% / -52.4%
$273,767,461 / 12 | $9,629,366
-8.4% / -53.9%
$333,929,159 / 12 | $8,012,909
+0.9% / +33.5%
$104,380,438 / 12 |
| Wed | $18,466,123
+1% / +12.3%
$268,886,074 / 13 | $7,509,391
-21.9% / -0.5%
$249,445,927 / 15 | $6,448,468
-13.9% / -54.4%
$280,215,929 / 13 | $8,755,141
-9.1% / -52.4%
$342,684,300 / 13 | $8,213,735
+2.5% / +130%
$112,594,173 / 13 |
| Thu | $14,738,136
-20.2% / +32.2%
$283,624,210 / 14 | $12,784,656
+70.2% / -8.6%
$262,230,583 / 16 | $6,468,103
+0.3% / -47.7%
$286,684,032 / 14 | $8,402,546
-4% / -49%
$351,086,846 / 14 | $11,558,520
+40.7% / +25.9%
$124,152,693 / 14 |
| Fri | $25,274,008
+71.5% / +9.4%
$308,898,218 / 15 | $10,602,130
-17.1% / -44.6%
$272,832,713 / 17 | $9,992,181
+54.5% / -46.1%
$296,676,213 / 15 | $12,709,035
+51.3% / -45.3%
$363,795,881 / 15 | $11,698,861
+1.2% / -3.5%
$135,851,554 / 15 |
| Sat | $25,835,551
+2.2% / -8.6%
$334,733,769 / 16 | $10,563,221
-0.4% / -38.8%
$283,395,934 / 18 | $14,665,667
+46.8% / -41%
$311,341,880 / 16 | $17,191,150
+35.3% / -39.2%
$380,987,031 / 16 | $12,726,625
+8.8% / +2.1%
$148,578,179 / 16 |
| Sun | $17,381,129
-32.7% / -28.3%
$352,114,898 / 17 | $7,015,027
-33.6% / -50.6%
$290,410,961 / 19 | $10,557,353
-28% / -44.3%
$321,899,233 / 17 | $12,764,034
-25.8% / -46.1%
$393,751,065 / 17 | $8,889,792
-30.1% / -18.2%
$157,467,971 / 17 |
| Mon | $8,094,554
-53.4% / -58.3%
$360,209,452 / 18 | $2,228,471
-68.2% / -77.8%
$292,639,432 / 20 | $4,304,211
-59.2% / -45.6%
$326,203,444 / 18 | $6,287,429
-50.7% / -40.2%
$400,038,494 / 18 | $3,022,271
-66% / -61.9%
$160,490,242 / 18 |
| Tue | $7,327,233
-9.5% / -59.9%
$367,536,685 / 19 | $2,015,440
-9.6% / -79%
$294,654,872 / 21 | $4,220,967
-1.9% / -43.6%
$330,424,411 / 19 | $5,661,240
-10% / -41.2%
$405,699,734 / 19 | $3,044,822
+0.7% / -62%
$163,535,064 / 19 |
| Wed | $6,909,167
-5.7% / -62.6%
$374,445,852 / 20 | $1,805,059
-10.4% / -76%
$296,459,931 / 22 | $3,709,259
-12.1% / -42.5%
$334,133,670 / 20 | $5,077,367
-10.3% / -42%
$410,777,101 / 20 | $2,841,351
-6.7% / -65.4%
$166,376,415 / 20 |
| Thu | $6,094,445
-11.8% / -58.6%
$380,540,297 / 21 | $1,651,907
-8.5% / -87.1%
$298,111,838 / 23 | $3,745,513
+1% / -42.1%
$337,879,183 / 21 | $4,734,366
-6.8% / -43.7%
$415,511,467 / 21 | $2,789,088
-1.8% / -75.9%
$169,165,503 / 21 |
| Fri | Est. $13,275,000
+117.8% / -47.5%
$393,815,000 / 22 | $3,676,960
+122.6% / -65.3%
$301,788,798 / 24 | $5,966,100
+59.3% / -40.3%
$343,845,283 / 22 | $7,577,362
+60.1% / -40.4%
$423,088,829 / 22 | $7,738,150
+177.4% / -33.9%
$176,903,653 / 22 |
| Sat | Est. $21,250,000
+60.1% / -17.7%
$415,065,000 / 23 | $6,439,410
+75.1% / -39%
$308,228,208 / 25 | $8,388,675
+40.6% / -42.8%
$352,233,958 / 23 | $10,502,243
+38.6% / -38.9%
$433,591,072 / 23 | $12,758,118
+64.9% / +0.2%
$189,661,771 / 23 |
| Sun | Est. $14,000,000
-34.1% / -19.5%
$429,040,000 / 24 | $4,092,728
-36.4% / -41.7%
$312,320,936 / 26 | $6,251,803
-25.5% / -40.8%
$358,485,761 / 24 | $8,037,425
-23.5% / -37%
$441,628,497 / 24 | $8,220,042
-35.6% / -7.5%
$197,881,813 / 24 |
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:19 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread I found this on Box office Guru. What do you think about it ? http://www.boxofficeguru.com/avatar.htm
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:22 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread A -35% dip on average every week seems pretty conservative since so far it had much better drops and movies tend to level off further down their runs. But on the other hand, who knows, maybe at some point the pool of audience gets exhausted and it begins to drop harder.
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:32 pm |
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Top
Speed Racer
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Posts: 158
Location: South Korea
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread not surpassing 600 M ?!!!!!!!!!! This is a bullsh/t! Avatar can make it!!
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:33 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread For MLK Week 5 the prediction is 46.87M but from what I think that could be the 4 day total itself. Though not exactly that much but around 40-41M. That would mean a 52-53M week. Include that and we are already at 590M eh 
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:52 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
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Posts: 6786
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread i think it will have crazy holds as its numbers go down as long as it has imax. so it will beat titanic for sure.
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 2:08 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
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Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 2:54 pm |
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Enki
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:20 pm
Posts: 88
Location: Chicago
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread I'd say that even with those underestimated numbers, when you add the change for the weekdays, it will definitively pass Titanic. A passage of Titanic itself comes handy to express this certainty: Ismay: "But this ship can't sink!" Thomas Andrews: "She is made of iron, sir. I assure you, she can. And she *will*. It is a mathematical certainty."  _________________
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:12 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread BJ wrote: Predict Avatanic's 4th Wknd
BJs Prediction: 60m -12%
i.hope - 55.6m -18%
Lotan - 55m -19%
BennyBlanco - 54.0m -21%
Mark66 - 51.368m -25%
Captain_Cold - 51.3m -25%
Soagg - 51m -25%
Jmovies - 51m -25%
Mesjarch - 50.895m -25%
Dr. Lecter - 50.80m -25%
Chip Munkington - 50.1m -26%
Saogg - 49.5m -27%
Proud Ryu - 49m -28%
Corpse - 47.5m -30%
Price - 47m -31%
Revatar - 46.4m -32%
MG Casey - 42.0m -38%
Enki - 41,117,030m -39%
Average: 50.20m -26%
closed range with estimates _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:26 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm
Posts: 12333
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Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread Considering that football was HUGE last night with 28.4M viewers and a 10.4 demo, maybe $50M weekend can happen 
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:31 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Predict Avatanic's Saturday
BJs Prediction: 25.0m +89%%
Revatar - 24.56m +85%
Chip Munkington - 23.4m +74%
Soagg - 23.0m +73%
Mark66 - 21.945m +65%
Jmovies - 21.33m +60%
Average: 15.36m +151%
closed
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Last edited by BJ on Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:32 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm
Posts: 12333
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread BJ wrote: Predict Avatanic's Saturday
BJs Prediction: 25.0m +89%%
Revatar - 24.56m +85%
Chip Munkington - 23.4m +74%
Soagg - 23.0m +73%
Mark66 - 21.945m +65%
Average: 15.36m +151%
closed jmovies wrote: Saturday- $21.33M You missed my post on p. 81
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:34 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Predict How Many Days it will take Avatanic to Reach 400mEnki - 21 -BJ - 22 -DIB2 - 22 -Captain_Cold - 22 Soagg - 23-Mark66 - 24 -Rev - 24 Soagg is our winner with a projected 23 days to 400m, congrats soagg 
_________________The Force Awakens
Last edited by BJ on Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:34 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread jmovies wrote: BJ wrote: Predict Avatanic's Saturday
BJs Prediction: 25.0m +89%%
Revatar - 24.56m +85%
Chip Munkington - 23.4m +74%
Soagg - 23.0m +73%
Mark66 - 21.945m +65%
Average: 15.36m +151%
closed jmovies wrote: Saturday- $21.33M You missed my post on p. 81 thanks _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:34 pm |
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