If Disney bit the bullet and pulled it out, it'd possibly be top 5. An animated winner will only happen when it's a Director nominee and probably pulled out of the Animation category. Unless you count Avatar, Wall-E was probably the best shot for that ever. Probably the only time an animation director might have been as high as say #8 or so. Beauty And The Beast was in a different era of less director-oriented animation (not that the branch may have noted), and really it was considered a shock that it even got in.

Most people think Avatar/Up In The Air/Precious/Inglourious Basterds/Hurt Locker is the top five, but I'd swap out Avatar for Invictus. It's the Academy after all.

Why isn't Me and Orson Welles in the race? Or at least Christian McKay's incredible performance as Welles... Is there any campaign for it?

McKay has been receiving some buzz, but it's pretty weak unfortunately.

If there were ten nominees in 2002, I think My Big Fat Greek Wedding would've snuck in... having rewatched The Hangover last night (albeit in a slightly altered state of mind), I honestly would not be shocked if it pulled off that tenth nomination in place of something like 500 Days or A Single Man.

If WGA nominates it, PGA does and it wins the Globe, sure. Otherwise, it's completely different from MBFGW. That movie could appeal to the geriatrics in the Academy.

Hmm, so the #11 conender here is (500) Days of Summer...I'm not so sure abou that simply because it's a LOCK to not get any other nominations except for Screenplay. Every other Top 10 contender has a chance at 3 nominations or more. Hell even A Single Man does. And so does District 9. Summer, however, even in the very best-case scenario is not getting anything other than Picture/Screenplay...hmm.

With 10 nominees the weakest film getting 2 noms isn't too big a deal IMO. With 5 noms, there was lots who made it with just 3

By the way I'd put (500) Days of Summer as #11... but with The Fantastic Mr. Fox at #10, not Nine. Nine is 41% on RT right now... that's pretty bad. 500DOS, Fox, and Star Trek (my 10-13) are going to murder it when it comes to the passion index, and there's no indication it'll get any more 6-10 votes to make up the difference. (and it'll need something like double the 6-10 votes of those films to make up the difference it lacks in the top 3 votes) Nine has been much more absent than all 3 of those films in the critic circles and it's getting 60% disapproval from RT, that means if anything a film like Fox will beat it in the quantity department

Nine is all but fucked IMO. Yes 10 nominees make it easier for a 40% film to get in, but the nail in the coffin is the lack of passion votes. Again if there's one thing Fox and 500DOS have going for it, it's ton of top 3 votes from people who want it in.

Chocolat had 60% at RT and made it with five nominees. And it didn't have an all-star cast. And do you think it had many passion votes?


And we haven't had many BP nominees with three nominations overall. How many can you name from this decade?

Actually the voting system up to this year was not quite the passion index, it was its fucking crazy cousin: http://www.iofilm.co.uk/feats/awards/os ... 080108.php

Chocolat... is the type of film critics are harder on than audiences. Critics are more likely to dog a syrupy, predictable film like that than the academy. Chocolat is a very likeable, entertaining film. I feel Invictus and Nine will invoke a lot more indifference/"don't like"s, but we'll see

So...yeah, how many 3-nom-BP nominees have we had any time recently?

I don't know what it is, maybe its the fact that there are 10 nominees for best picture, maybe its the fact that its a relatively weak year, as well as being a delayed Oscar's this year, but I'm not all that excited over this year's Oscar race. Sometimes its fun to rally around a frontrunner, but so far the award season has been a bit boring...

Anyone else feeling that way? I kinda want to see a movie come out of nowhere and pull an upset on all fronts. Avatar may, but there's gotta be some big surprises sooner or later. The Oscar race needs a big shift!

Less than I thought. I thought Juno only had 3 for some reason... probably because everyone was labelling it for 3 noms when they assumed Reitman had no shot at BD. Then Crash's 3 wins BP had the "only 3" part stuck in my mind

Neverthless, when talking about the 9th or 10th strongest film in the race, it's certainly not a dealbreaker to only be a 2 nom film...

Did The Weinsteins made a mistake shafting The Road at the last minute? It's hard to see it performing well Thanksgiving weekend even if it hadn't had the rug pulled out from under it. But it does seem less DOA than Nine. Invictus seems a few rungs above it.


But na O, I don't think this is a boring year - just hard to gauge. The ten nominees almost certainly means there'll be some spoilers.

Fantastic Mr. Fox isn't getting nominated, come on now. Critic mentions don't mean much unless it wins Best Picture somewhere. I'm sure two animated films will get in one day, but not this year, as good as it has been for the medium.

My #11 is A Serious Man. #12 is District 9. I reallllllllllly can't see anything outside of these twelve get in.

The Weinsteins were definitely, definitely, definitely wrong to shaft The Road in favor of Nine. The Road may be a difficult film in many respects, but it's also a film capable of inspiring passion, with its literary (Oprah!) pedigree and the stunning, physical Viggo Mortensen performance at its core. Nine, Marion Cotillard's undeniably terrific turn excepted, will leave 99% of people cold, with lots of shrugs at the end.

My Top 12:

1. The Hurt Locker
2. Up in the Air
3. Inglourious Basterds
4. Precious
5. Avatar
6. Invictus
7. Up
8. A Serious Man
9. An Education
10. Nine
11. The Fantastic Mr. Fox
12. District 9

Really, the Fox?

Fox is a wildcard. It has some passionate support as it was shown by some critic societies. Small but passionate support works in the way the Oscar voting goes.

so Avatar's gonna do like 500m? I'm starting to get the feeling it could actually pull off BP. Up in the Air's support isn't quite strong enough (critics prefer Hurt Locker, audiences prefer Avatar), and its box office is decent but not at the typical BP-level. Still, it should perform very well overall. I'm torn between Mo'Nique and Kendrick for Supporting Actress.

Picture - Avatar
Director - Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Actor - Clooney, Up in the Air
Actress - Bullock, The Blind Side
Supporting Actor - Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Supporting Actress - Kendrick, Up in the Air
Original Screenplay - Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Adapted Screenplay - Reitman/Turner, Up in the Air

my surprise-nominee prediction is Hangover sneaking into BP.

My BP nominees prediction (in decreasing order of likelihood):

1. Avatar (tie)
1. The Hurt Locker (tie)
1. Up in the Air (tie)
4. Inglorious Basterds
5. Up
6. Precious (tie)
6. A Serious Man (tie)
8. Invictus
9. A Single Man
10. The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Near Contenders: Crazy Heart, (500) Days of Summer, An Education.

No way A Single Man makes it over An Education...

I added The Fantastic Mr. Fox to the poll.

Crazy Heart should get in before Fantastic Mr. Fox. The Academy won't nominate 3 animated films (if you count Avatar) in 1 year.

Eight votes for A Single Man?

I doubt that....

I'm now seeing the following ranking for BP nomination:

1A, 1B, 1C - Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air (no need to rank the three as they're locked and the only ones with a chance at BP win)

4. Inglourious Basterds
5. Precious
6. An Education (British support pushed it just ahead of Up IMO)
7. Up
8 A Serious Man
9. Star Trek
10. District 9 (Star Trek is still the more likely of the two if it comes down to them, but I think now there is enough room)
11. Invictus
12. Crazy Heart (could have a late run similar to The Wrestler with actor and screenplay noms; too bad Gyllenhaal isn't helping the way Tomei was)