unfortunately there isn't one in anchorage

gosh. that sucks. it was awesome in real imax 3d. large screen does take the experience to another level.

btw i see more than few 2d sellouts apart from usual 3d/imax sellouts. it will definitely increase from estimates.

http://www.fandango.com/regalhaciendacr ... heaterpage

unfortunately there isn't one in anchorage

well that's because only u & your brother live up there.

Avatar has sold out some showings on New Years Eve... no sell outs yet for M-W

That would be awesome if it does that.

I've thought about it, and even though that's a crazy figure, it's a real possibility. Titanic's adjusted gross is 933 million remember.

If it makes over 55 million next weekend, it's heading straight past 550 million that's for sure.

This. Is. Awesome.

Sorry, got completely sidetracked.

Here's a calculation based on an average of Titanic and The Fellowship of the Ring. The reason I'm using these two films is because:

- They are both December releases
- They both had unexpected expectations
- They are both non-sequels
- Titanic is historic, FOTR is fantasy - Avatar is virtually a thematic average of the two, and so appealing to an average of both audiences
- Avatar is already performing at roughly an average of the two, in terms of % drops
- Titanic had amazing WOM, FOTR had great WOM, Avatar's WOM seems closer to Titanic at this point, but is still a hard sell due to it being a sci fi
- Avatar has no competition outside of Sherlock Holmes, FOTR had Catch Me If You Can, Titanic had nothing

Problems with this calculation:

- Each film falls on different days and so the average of some weekends won't be accurate due to public holidays, timing of Academy nominations etc.
- FOTR was also released prior to the weekend, putting the overall 10 week total average out by about 3%
- Avatar is appealing to audiences for mostly different reasons to both Titanic and FOTR, so it's hard to determine it's long-term appeal
- The market is different to what it was in 1997 and 2001, and Avatar's 3D appeal is a draw away from people waiting for DVD, so it's very hard to predict based on historical comparisons
- My maths is pretty rusty so I may just fuck it up

TITANIC

1 28.6
2 35.5 +23.8%
3 33.3 -6%
4 28.7 -13.8%
5 30 +4.5%
6 25.2 -15.9%
7 25.9 +2.6%
8 23 -11%
9 28.1 +22.8%
10 21 -25%

402.5 in 10 weeks

= 279.3 million from weekend / 69.3%
= 123.2 million from weekdays / 30.7%
= Average weekend % drop of -2%
= 10 weeks gross 67.1% of total

FOTR

1 47.2
2 38.7 -18%
3 23 -40.5%
4 16.2 -29.6%
5 12.4 -23%
6 7.8 -37.4%
7 5.7 -26.9%
8 3.6 -36.6%
9 4.7 +29.9%
10 3.4 -26.5%

283.1 in 10 weeks

= 162.7 million from weekend / 57.5%
= 120.4 million from weekdays / 42.5%
= Average weekend % drop of -23.2%
= 10 weeks gross 90.4% of total

TITANIC / AVATAR AVERAGES

Weekend drops (from week 3 onwards):

3 -23.3
4 -21.7
5 -18.4
6 -21.5
7 -26.7
8 -12.2
9 +26.4
10 -25.8

10 weekends = 63.4%
10 weekdays = 33.6%
10 week gross % of total = 78.75%

AVATAR

Weekends

1 77
2 75 -2%

Total

1 77
2 212.2

Future based on TITANIC/FOTR average:

Weekends

3 57.5
4 45
5 36.7
6 28.8
7 21.1
8 16.4
9 20.76
10 15.4

10 weekends = 393.66 million
10 weeks (393.66 / 63.4 X 100 - 393.66) = 227.25
10 week total = 620.9
Total gross (620.9 / 78.75 X 100) = 788 million

Holy shit.

Let's take it one day at a time guys

Yeah, those $800m are ridiculous even for Gamaur standards.

$500m is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from a lock.

If it makes more than 55 million next weekend, it would have to perform worse than FOTR did from the same point in order to make less than 550 million.

That's not fair. Fox fudged the numbers so that DIB2 could win.

BJ, it would be awesome too if you created a poll in this thread (which would run for a week or so)or maybe a separate thread to compile new final gross projections and then rank them afterwards when all is said and done.