I think there are going to be some massive Oscar upsets this year. There are just way too many variables this year. Expansion to 10 best picture films. Having the Oscars in March again two weeks later than last year, due to the Olympics. Precious may have momentum but I could see the Oscar race change very quickly.

Am I the only one who thinks Inglourious Bastards can win? I feel like QT is going to get awarded by Oscar sometime

Quite certainly, yes.

I think the year of the woman thing is being taken seriously as well. Plus, of all the contenders, what movie has more obviously great directing? The Lovely Bones might, but nobody's seen it yet.

Up in the Air now has a score of 99 at BFCA and still 100% RT after 20 reviews with an average of 8.2.

So... Invictus is the movie about Rugby?!

How will that get nominated?!

Precious' reviews have improved now it's gone wide: 91%/7.8 RT, 90%/8.0 COTC, 79 with 8 100s at MC.

Nine, The Lovely Bone, and Invictus have been screened this week, and look like the reactions are good to great for Nine, mixed but positive for TLB, and mediocre for the last. Considering Nine needs the least help, that makes it a lock.

Great for Nine.

They need to start screening Avatar but I have heard rumours that screening won't start until last week of november/first week december.

Link please.

Part of me is itching to get back into the game.

It's a helluva interesting year, that's for sure.

C'mon, admit it, your hands are itching to pimp Eastwood again!

Looks like Invictus is picking up some steam with positive reviews from Newsweek, Variety, and HR

Clint Eastwood is probably the favorite for best director, while the movie has been getting some mark downs, Eastwood's directing seems to be the one thing getting consistent praise.

Eastwood with his two wins is certainly not ahead of Reitman at the moment. Or even Bigelow.

No! Objectivity has always been the key for me and my success. If you recall, while all of the pundits and people at this forum were calling Eastwood a lock for Gran Torino, I wasn't seeing it at all, despite loving the movie and his performance a great deal! I almost got involved, then, but I just don't have the energy or time to fight off all the people who let those online "experts" with their agendas and delusions of grandeur do their thinking for them. Just like "The Departed isn't an Oscar movie" coming out of their mouths somehow became an internet catch phrase.

If I decided to do it again, it would be for the sole purpose of yet again burning the David Poland, Sasha Stones, and the other wannabes of the world. Despite the numerous times I did that, the people of this forum STILL followed their lead, while choosing to be contrary to whatever I said, so it's the kind of frustration that makes it more trouble than it's worth for me. I retired at the top of my game. I could come back and dig in and really bring that magic back, but I don't think anybody really understood the amount of work I put into my analysis, and there isn't enough reward to commit to that. Unless, of course, the reward is having people constantly wanting to argue with me and tell me how they are right and I am wrong, and ignoring the track record, and disrespecting the volume of info I provided everybody with. It's tempting, though!

Based on the trailers, I'm still not convinced Up in the Air can be a possible BP or BD winner. Particularly for BD, this just does not seem like the type of film that can win that category.

I think one or more of the following Foreign Language Films will sneak in: A Prophet, The White Ribbon, and/or The Maid (La Nana)

Anybody think "The Cove" has a chance at a BP nom?

I see BP/BD as:

Precious - 90%
Anything else - 10%

Maybe 90 is too low.

I, on the other hand, just can't see Precious winning Director.

We can now rule out Precious even getting a nom for BP.

I should delete the above post as spam. Heh

It was a reply to Shack...

I personally think the BP is down to three films: Precious, Up in the Air, and Avatar.