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 October 9-11 Predictions 
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Wallflower
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
I don't see ZOMBIELAND dropping that much at all. WOM is great and there's only one new wide release this upcoming weekend. I say more like 35-40%.


Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:09 am
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
Couples Retreat just doesn't give off a hit vibe though.
Couples Retreat 23m
Zombieland -35%
Cloudy -21%
Toy Story -24%
Invention -43%
Whip It -51%
Surrogates -46%
Fame -44%
Nothing else is out so holds should be in the 30s at least though.

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Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:51 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
I could see Paranormal Activity doing 4 Million this weekend ;).


Wed Oct 07, 2009 12:35 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
Mike wrote:
1. COUPLES RETREAT - 25 MILLION
2. ZOMBIELAND - 15.3 MILLION
3. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS - 11.9 MILLION
4. TOY STORY 3D - 8.4 MILLION
5. THE INVENTION OF LYING - 4.6 MILLION
6. PARANORMAL ACTIVITY - 4 MILLION
7. SURROGATES - 3.8 MILLION
8. WHIP IT! - 3.1 MILLION
9. CAPITALISM: A LOVE STORY - 2.9 MILLION
10. FAME - 2.5 MILLION


Updated ;).


Wed Oct 07, 2009 3:22 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
Couples Retreat - $27M
Zombieland - -45%


Wed Oct 07, 2009 6:44 pm
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
Final Predictions:

1. Couples Retreat - $27 million (NEW)
2. Zombieland - $14 million (-43%)
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $11.5 million (-27%)
4. Toy Story 3D - $9 million (-28%)
5. Surrogates - $4.1 million (-43%)
6. The Invention of Lying - $3.6 million (-49%)
7. Paranormal Activity - $3.2 million (+500%)
8. Capitalism: A Love Story - $2.7 million (-39%)
9. Whip It - $2.7 million (-42%)
10. Fame - $2.6 million (-44%)
11. The Informant! - $2.2 million (-40%)

Couples Retreat's trailer and TV spots are pretty strong and have a great "getaway" feeling to it, which is essentially why anyone goes to the theater. BOM polls are consistent showing it will debut in between The Proposal and What Happens in Vegas, so no huge surprises. With no other new releases besides Couples Retreat, the holdovers should have lighter than normal drops, especially the two family films, Cloudy and Toy Story 3D. Zombieland should have a great 2nd weekend hold with its great word of mouth. The Invention of Lying will most likely fall the highest.


Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:42 pm
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
There is very little wiggle room in the derby - it's going to be very tight. Everything but the animated films is dropping like 45%. The animated films may be the decider this time, or Couples I guess. Whip It is a wild card too.

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Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:47 pm
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
Agreed on Whip It. I don't think it will have an awful decline, simple because it started so low in the first place. Toy Story 3D also could have a larger drop with some possible frontloaded-ness, but I went with the small drop.

It's gonna be a hard fight to the top.


Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:49 pm
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
MG Casey wrote:
Agreed on Whip It. I don't think it will have an awful decline, simple because it started so low in the first place. Toy Story 3D also could have a larger drop with some possible frontloaded-ness, but I went with the small drop.

It's gonna be a hard fight to the top.


Whip It could have a weird early run like Prime back in 2005...

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Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:52 pm
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
Dr. Lecter wrote:
MG Casey wrote:
Agreed on Whip It. I don't think it will have an awful decline, simple because it started so low in the first place. Toy Story 3D also could have a larger drop with some possible frontloaded-ness, but I went with the small drop.

It's gonna be a hard fight to the top.


Whip It could have a weird early run like Prime back in 2005...


Nah, it's 1st wknd would have been too subdued by Halloween as evidenced by that non-drop on its Wednesday after it's great Tues.

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Thu Oct 08, 2009 11:09 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
I could see Whip It holding well this weekend. Oddly enough the stars seem to be out promoting it on talk shows this week. I've seen Ellen Page on two shows, Drew on one, Juliette Lewis on one, and Kristen Wiig on one, and Eve will be on Fallon tonight. Who knows if that will make much difference, but it can't hurt. And half of schools are out on Monday. Plus it started small last weekend and has really good WOM.


Thu Oct 08, 2009 11:10 pm
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
I'm going to be somewhat daring this weekend and believe in my own calculation to go for the one thing I haven't achieved so far.

I wish derby would've predicted PA.

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Fri Oct 09, 2009 12:01 am
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
xiayun wrote:
I'm going to be somewhat daring this weekend and believe in my own calculation to go for the one thing I haven't achieved so far.

I wish derby would've predicted PA.

Aaah, so mysterious lol! Can't wait to see what it is.


Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:36 am
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
MG Casey wrote:
xiayun wrote:
I'm going to be somewhat daring this weekend and believe in my own calculation to go for the one thing I haven't achieved so far.

I wish derby would've predicted PA.

Aaah, so mysterious lol! Can't wait to see what it is.


I assume he meant the back to back win. It will definitely take a somewhat daring prediction to stand out from the crowd this weekend. Good luck all.

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Fri Oct 09, 2009 9:45 am
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
My predictions:

1. Couples Retreat - 24.9 ($8,300 average)
2. Zombieland - 14.0 (-43.5%)
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - 13.1 (-17%)
4. Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) - 10.0 (-20%)
5. Paranormal Activity - 4.8 ($30,000 average)
6. Surrogates - 4.3 (-41%)
7. The Invention of Lying - 4.1 (-42%)
8. Whip It - 3.1 (-34%)
9. Capitalism: A Love Story - 3.0 (-33%)
10. Fame - 2.8 (-40%)
11. The Informant! - 2.5 (-32%)

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Fri Oct 09, 2009 11:36 am
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
Our Predictions:

1. Couples Retreat - 25.5
2. Zombieland - 14.3
3. Cloudy Meatballs - 11.9
4. Toy Story 2.5 - 8.6
5. Surrogates - 4.1
6. The Invention of Lying - 4.1
7. Capitalism: A Love Story - 3.0
8. Whip It - 2.8
9. Fame - 2.6
10. The Informant! - 2.5

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Fri Oct 09, 2009 12:54 pm
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
My derby entry

1. Couples Retreat - 16.0m
2. Zombieland - 15.1m (-39%)
3. Cloudy Meatballs - 12.3m (-22%)
4. Toy Story 2.5 - 9.0m (-28%)
5. Surrogates - 4.5m (-38%)
6. The Invention of Lying - 4.3m (-38%0
7. Capitalism: A Love Story - 2.8m (-36%)
8. Whip It - 2.7m (-42%)
9. Fame - 2.7m (-41%)
10. The Informant! - 2.4m (-36%)
Paranormal Activity - between 3-4 million.

I don't see Couples Retreat breaking out at all. The reviews are weak, the trailers are not showing any reason why we have to see it. Internet polls are kinda weak, and midnight sales will dead empty. I see Heartbreak Kid like numbers for this. I agree with the rest with the holdovers, with all the them holding on stronger than usual. sooo...

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Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:23 pm
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
Well, for further evidence of how close we all will be:

1. Couples Retreat, 23.0
2. Zombieland, 13.1
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, 11.9
4. Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D), 8.5
5. Surrogates, 3.8
6. The Invention of Lying, 3.7
7. Capitalism: A Love Story, 2.8
8. Whip It, 2.6
9. Fame (2009), 2.5
10. The Informant!, 2.1

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Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:54 pm
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Killing With Kindness
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
The Scottie wrote:
My derby entry

1. Couples Retreat - 16.0m
2. Zombieland - 15.1m (-39%)
3. Cloudy Meatballs - 12.3m (-22%)
4. Toy Story 2.5 - 9.0m (-28%)
5. Surrogates - 4.5m (-38%)
6. The Invention of Lying - 4.3m (-38%0
7. Capitalism: A Love Story - 2.8m (-36%)
8. Whip It - 2.7m (-42%)
9. Fame - 2.7m (-41%)
10. The Informant! - 2.4m (-36%)
Paranormal Activity - between 3-4 million.

I don't see Couples Retreat breaking out at all. The reviews are weak, the trailers are not showing any reason why we have to see it. Internet polls are kinda weak, and midnight sales will dead empty. I see Heartbreak Kid like numbers for this. I agree with the rest with the holdovers, with all the them holding on stronger than usual. sooo...

Nice zombieland predic. We see eye to eye. Gutsy on Couples Retreat, I wanted to go low but went 27m in the end.

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Fri Oct 09, 2009 2:12 pm
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
Here are my Derby predicts...

1. Couples Retreat 23.9M (couldn't decide high or low, so I went middle)
2. Zombieland 14.3M (good hold for the genre)
3. Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs 13.0M (I think a drop below 20% is attainable)
4. Toy Story/Toy Story 2 3D 9.1M (should also have a great hold)
5. Invention of Lying 4.4M
6. Surrogates 4.3M
7. Whip It 3.0M
8. Capitalism: A Love Story 2.9M
9. Fame 2.7M
10. The Informant! 2.3M

I think Paranormal Activity will make about 3.8M this weekend.


Fri Oct 09, 2009 11:54 pm
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
So many have almost identical predictions this weekend.

Weekend estimates based off Friday numbers, and even weeked estimates on Sunday will tell us hardly anything.

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“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Oct 10, 2009 2:21 am
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
したい wrote:
So many have almost identical predictions this weekend.

Weekend estimates based off Friday numbers, and even weeked estimates on Sunday will tell us hardly anything.

Yep, it will be crazy. Shame Paranormal Activity wasn't thrown in this week.


Sat Oct 10, 2009 3:50 am
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Horror Hound
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
Will you all get zero's for not putting PA in the top 10?

Or was it unavailable to use?


Sat Oct 10, 2009 9:33 am
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Post Re: October 9-11 Predictions
It was unavailable, they give you what they think will be the top 10, and you predict
those movies.


Sat Oct 10, 2009 11:37 am
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