You think Up is that secure?
It seems to me Up got about the same critic reaction as wall-e, but it isn't as serious or baity material. And since that didn't get nominated....

Despite the title of this article, we didn’t dream the switch this summer to ten Best Picture nominees. No matter how bad of an idea it is (and it is bad), the switch to ten is happening. But what no one is saying, not one of the Gurus of Oscar, is that there really aren’t ten Best Picture spots up for grabs. Nor are there eight spots, or even seven.

The truth is the number of Best Picture nomination spots available currently sits around five, give or take, which is oddly enough the number we normally deal with anyway. For whatever reason, no one wants to admit that this race isn’t suddenly about ten films lucky enough to be nominated. No, what this year’s race is really about is which films remain in contention AFTER the Five films that we all know are getting nominated, are nominated. And what are those five films you ask?

The Hurt Locker – The film no one saw. Considering its Iraq War subject matter, it’s lack of box office appeal should surprise no one. But box office has never stopped films from being nominated for Best Picture. Look no further than Letters from Iwo Jima’s $2,594,775 pre-Oscar nomination gross.

Nine – The baitiest of baity Oscar films. Oscar winners headline Nine across the board and it’s from Rob Marshall, the man behind previous Best Picture winner Chicago. The easiest way to sum up why Nine will be nominated is this: Would Dreamgirls have been a Best Picture nominee with ten spots? Of course it would!

Precious – An important film supported by Oprah, one of the most powerful people on the entire planet should never ever be underestimated. Precious earned its Best Picture nomination nearly ten months ago at Sundance. Short of not being released, nothing can change its course with Oscar.

Up – There are two reasons we are even saddled with ten nominations this year. First, The Dark Knight. And the other, Pixar’s WALL-E. Is Up as good as WALL-E? No, it’s not. But where Up ranks on the Pixar scale means very little. It has great reviews, it’s the second highest grossing Pixar film in history, and it will become only the second animated film ever to be nominated for Best Picture, asterisk or not.

Up in the Air – Only one film rose above the others in the glut of September film festivals. The follow-up to Best Picture and Best Director nominee Juno, Up in the Air by its very nature appeared on the radar of those that follow the Oscar race the moment it was announced. But it wasn’t until it was actually screened this month and very much loved by many, that it secured its Best Picture spot.

So that’s it, in all its glory. These five films WILL be nominated, you can bet on it. It makes little sense to dream up wonderful scenarios of ten wickedly diverse Best Picture Nominees (Star Trek! The Cove! Ponyo!). Instead you should focus on what the other Five Best Picture nominees will be. Personally, I think it’ll be more of the same. But that’s another article for another day.

Hmm, yeah, it's very likely for these five. Very. However, if Nine is included on pedigree alone then so should Invictus.

Nine is a musical with a pedigree. It comes in handy for Academy to mix up genres.

just saw Where the Wild Things Are;

it's great, but yeah, i doubt it's showing up in any major categories here.