http://www.awardsdaily.com/?p=12584

I'd say Avatar's pretty much in at this point.

Except he's seen only 40 minutes. When someone has actually like, seen the whole thing, I'll reconsider.

Look like Precious and Up in the Air have pretty much stamped their BP tickets after the receptions at TIFF, so we have four almost-sure nominees now IMO (adding Up and The Hurt Locker).

A Serious Man is also a serious contender (heh). A screenplay nom seems very very likely and it's definitely in the Top 15 for a BP nom now. The only problem is its box-office prospects. This doesn't really seem to have any...

The Coens, I'd argue, are able to draw in a decent number of movie fans.

I dunno... Intolerable Cruelty and The Ladykillers even had starpower and both disappointed.

Well, IC also had disappointing WOM after being marketed as a studio RomCom, and The Ladykillers had the worst reviews of the Coens' careers. This has no stars, which will certainly make it the ultimate test of the their appeal, but I kind of agree with Tyler that the Coens feel like they have reached a point in their career where they should be enough of an appeal on their own to get it to a respectable gross (For a BP nod in a field of ten, $10-15 million should be enough).

Well, yeah, $10-15 million it'll achieve, that's a no-brainer.

Plus the Coens are at a way different career ebb now. Burn After Reading and No Country will help.

Precious just won the people's choice at Toronto.

The second equivalence of audience award it had won (after Sundance). It's already getting raves from critics, and look like it's connecting the general audience even more. It could win the whole thing.

If it wins, do you think there would be a BP/BD split? Does having 10 nominees/new voting system make a BP/BD split scenario more likely or less likely?

Probably more, if only because the simple fact of more options means an upset is more likely. Then again, that means also more vote-splitting...

But then again some of the lenient voters might push a certain film for BP that was snubbed out of the BD race... You can look at it from a lot of ways. Statistically it's more likely. In practice? We'll see after a few years (if they continue to nominate 10 films for BP).

Agreed, they have a strong draw with a certain crowd.
I expect no less than 30m total, and would not be shocked by 40-50m given decent expansion and assuming it is a good film (fare assumption considering the men behind the camera)

Is it reasonable to consider Precious an early frontrunner? From where I'm sitting it's looking pretty hot, it's a serious drama about a girl fighting against serious discrimination on two fronts (fat and black), it's getting insane rave reviews, looks to have several other nominations (I keep hearing BAs, BSAs, BD are all likely) and is apparently a big fan favorite.
Seems to have more going for it than anything else around right now.

Yes, it's the early frontrunner. In fact, I'd consider Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, and Supporting Actress (Mo'Nique) all basically locks at this point, and it could win all five. Mo'Nique especially is putting some distance between her and the next contender.

early?
we knew about it back in February.

Yeah I keep hearing SAs is all but locked up.
Do you have an opinion on what the best contenders are at this point?

You mean in the supporting actress category? Or BP contenders?

Feel Bright Star is fading at this point. Cornish is still a strong contender, but the opening box office is average, and only 2 100s at MC and 6.9 average at RT.

Yeah, as Best Picture/Director I don't believe in it anymore. Even Cornish's chances are not as strong as they seemed, she's #4 at best at this point, I'd say.

xiayun,
I meant in BP. I don't what are the top competitors in Best Picture, in your opinion.

Updated to 4 100s, and 8(!) 90/91s at MC (82 average) with 30 reviews and 7.1 average at RT. I fail to see how this one is fading, except at the box-office perhaps - but even there, we'll have to wait for this weekend's results for a fairer analysis...

Now Coco Before Chanel...

In terms of likelihood,

1. Precious
2. Up in the Air
3. Up
4. The Hurt Locker

After that, it's pretty murky. An Education has the reviews, but I'm not sure about the box office. The Road could be limited to acting categories. Nine had that early screening, but still waiting for the talk to significantly pick up. Then you have the usual suspects of The Lovely Bones, Invictus, Avatar, and Tree of Life that nobody has seen it.

Once you expand the category to 10, I feel it actually takes away a lot of suspenses, and more films will make the field by pedigree alone.