Many of us suspect the Star Trek retoot will be disappointing, but if you're going into hiding for 7 whole months after it's release, you must be expecting to be devastatingly ashamed of your prediction!

He's leaving, not me. Granted I don't plan on keeping this thread bumped for 7 months, but I'll be here, even if my prediction is wrong.

FYI - People that track such things say there are 40 positive reviews in the hopper for RT to put up as we get closer, so Trek is essentially guaranteed an extremely positive total. Boxofficemojo predicts $230 million.

An amount that, while fantastic for the film, will be crushed by avatar.

I have extreme doubts that a hard sci-fi movie that is relying heavily on effects can hit anything that high. Again, we'll see, as I'll keep the thread open to join till November. Maybe by then we'll have a trailer.

I think people here are generally overpredicting Star Trek. It does look
interesting, but I see it going the route of a lesser Batman Begins. I can't see
it topping 200M, even with great legs. Avatar has so much pre-trailer buzz
that they would really have to botch the marketing for it not to beat 200M.

So I"m out.

Replace star trek with avatar and you have exactly how I feel.

Okay, let me try:

Final Gross: Avatar will make more than Star Trek Club

You're right - - that does feel better!

Feel free to start that club :-) I love a little competition.

Avatar is not making under $220 million, and that's if it's an artistic failure. Star Trek isn't making over $240 million, and that's if it has TDK's reception. It's remotely possible, but...

Ok, why? What is it about Avatar that is going to be this spectacular? I see nothing about it that lends itself to a 200+ mil total when Peter Jackson can't get King Kong above 200 right after LOTR. It has a director's name, and promises of Earth-shattering effects. It as of yet has not released so much as one still, the story that is out along with the original scriptment is unimpressive, and Sci-fi at Christmas time is a hard sell.

I hope it is as big as everyone says, but jeez, I keep bringing up Riddick and Final Fantasy, maybe with how the fans are I should be bringing up Episode One instead. Except this has very very little hype outside of the geek community.

King Kong did make over 200M and that lacked revolutionary 3D effects that Avatar will have. Plus this is Cameroon's next after TITANIC. However big LOTR movies were they were just not in titanic's level. There will be hype for sure plus it is having an excellent release date. Should not have any problem beating a puny trek movie.

Ah, I didn't realize Kong made 220. Considering the heritage, that still isn't that hot.

"Revolutionary 3D effects"? Show me them. Show me anything. A couple of articles don't mean a damn thing. The movie is a few months out, if they want hype to build something has to be put out. Cameron hasn't made a movie in a decade that wasn't a documentary. He made a series that failed in that time span. His name means very little in a world where Spielburg and Lucas routinely deal disappointments.

Titanic and this share a very small audience. It isn't 1997 any more as well, the DVD will be released a hell of a lot sooner, which means that it won't be in theatres as long. The romance angle in this movie is between two fully cgi characters in a fully cgi land. I've said it before and I'll say it again, this has a hell of a lot more in common with Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within than Titanic.

I'd do a bit more research on the word of mouth, reviews, and excitement there is before you slam the 'puny trek movie'.

Star Trek is looking more and more promising every second, with positive reviews, tons of magnificient marketing, huge pre-sales and buzz flowing all around me. I see 200m happening easily, and honestly, I think the sky could be the limit. If this thing turns out to be half as good as everyone says/it looks, Star Trek could make over 250m.
Avatar has yet to put out a poster (as far as I know) a teaser, a tv spot, a trailer, anything. It's true that the general public off the nets just doesn't know what it is. And Cameron's draw is questionable considering he hasn't made a flick in 12 years.

All that said, this thread is still definitely wrong. Avatar will still crush 250m, and still be one of the top 3 performing movies of the year, most likely 2nd or 1st.
One question critch, how much do you think GI Joe will make? jw.

When you're 12 or under, it must be very difficult to gain any kind of real perspective on James Cameron's career.

GI Joe will probably open okay, but it's telling that it's coming out in August. Probably 60/130 or so.

Insults, now, Bradley? The man has made a career out of using effects to push movies. He's made some damn good movies. Aliens and Terminator are classics. But he's not perfect, he's made disappointments before, and he has a Lucas-like tendency to forget about acting and story in favor of his latest toy. Titanic had awful acting from pretty much everyone in it. Abyss has some painful acting. And his name does not guarantee success. Nobody saw his documentaries. Dark Angel stumbled through 2 years, despite him directing one episode.

After what has happened to Lucas, and to a lesser degree Spielburg and Zemeckis and M. Night, I don't blindly follow directors.

Again - the story is unimpressive. The CGI romance is not going to draw in anyone. Sci-Fi has never been a huge draw at Christmas time.

Best case scenario Star Trek and Avatar pull out a Iron Man/Indiana Jones box office duel and everyone's happy. Star Trek certainly could disappoint if the general audience can't get past the title and the stigma, and I'm prepared for that. If I lose then I lose gracefully, and I've always said that I hope Avatar is everything it's followers say it is. It'd be nice seeing a hard sci-fi movie hit it big again. I just can't see it happening.

The reason I ask about GI Joe is that it opens on August 7th, and has yet to produce a full trailer and only has superbowl commercial spots out. You're talking about a major film that is late to get stuff out? Avatar opens on December 18th, more than 4 months after GI Joe.
This is still 8 months out, I agree public buzz won't build till they release a trailer, but they have plenty of time.
No other major november/december release has anything out yet, why should this?

We're talking about a 200 million dollar budgeted sci-fi epic film, we should have something. GI Joe had the Super Bowl commercial and a lot of stills released. November we've already got trailers for 2012 and Planet 51 and Princess and the Frog, Sherlock Holmes and Lovely Bones just released things recently. The only big December film that we're missing is Avatar. I'm very surprised we haven't heard anything about a trailer on Wolverine. Does Fox even have anything else coming out this year?

I'm not asking for a full trailer. I think some kind of effects still is not too much to ask for.

I have a hard time taking you seriously with statements like the above...

Um, have you seen those movies lately? Go watch them and tell me how good the acting is. I'll wait.

Half the actors sound like they're reading the lines off of cue cards.

It's Trek opening day!

They are called the terminators.

This thread is a joke.

What's a joke is the predictions for Avatar without a frame of footage or a review.

Trek has been proved to be great. Time for your movie to put up or shut up.