47 million, so less.

I think it can go over, even if it's just by a few million. The advertising has been there, there's excitement going around, and it's going to be getting a lot of screens next weekend, which should help combat the 163-minute running time.

Less.

In fact I wouldn't be surprised if it would make less than 40 million. This has nothing to do with my own expectations, because I've read the comic, and the film looks really good.

But it has soooooo many things going against it. Like:

1. Uneven marketing. What's the high concept? General audiences most likely still don't have any idea what the story is about, which is traditionally a kiss of death to any film.

2. People compare this with 300, but so far the marketing has lacked the action-packed super coolness that sold 300. And 300 had a very clear, appealing high concept with "300 against one million". People have also compared this with Iron Man, which again also promised more cool action and had a very simple and appealing high concept with "man builds a robot suit to fight evil". Where's the story hook in the marketing of Watchmen? Where are the big action money shots?

3. Watchmen looks in parts cool, but in parts very cheesy and campy. This is intentional, but general audiences most likely don't know, or care, about the satiric aspects of the film.

4. Fanbase isn't big enough to propel it to big numbers. Watchmen is a rather unknown comic, it didn't really become better known until this film started its marketing. But this new awareness isn't the kind of devoted fandom that would religiously go to see the film in the opening weekend.

5. It's almost three hours.

dp

Totally agree Tuuka, we may have another sluggish week next weekend also. I don't think it will open as low as what BKB is saying, but it could "disappoint" with about 40 million. I think 40 million is pretty good for it. But with this weird economy, a lot of people are thinking that anything can happen. Wish Sandra Bullock's movie kept its spot to make the marketplace a little deeper, oh well. At least the week after looks good for a solid weekend.

I dunno. This is looking more and more epic to me everyday. Can't wait for Thursday night!!!

Good post Tuuka. And welcome back.

marketing is in high gear. I've seen 5 ads on tv over the last 3 hours.

It'll have to benefit big time from the average joe this weekend.

Last weekend you had Madea (urban film, limited appeal) and Fired Up (too small to matter).
This weekend you had Jonas (for Jonas fans only, very limited, barely 1000 screens) and Street Fighter (very limited, barely 1000 screens).

Recap of the major openers of the past 2 weeks: Madea, Fired Up, Jonas, Street Fighter.......

There is absolutely nothing for the average person to see, and thw Watchmen is the only film opening.

This MUST factor into how it performs somehow.

Thats a good point.

What helped 300 was that it had the general audience salivating to go and see it.

This is what Watchmen generally lacks. But with the films that have come out in the last couple of weeks - there is a big hole to fill and general auds may flock to Watchmen as the only alternative. This is what will push the film's opening higher when combined with fanbase.

I don't know how you can sit and watch those spots and think this looks stupid. Maybe its' just my geeky taste in movies but I am literally about to jiz in my pants everytime I watch those. Its' just ridiculous.
I don't see how this movie fails, it has had a ton of great advertising and should be able to find a niche.
Has anyone else noticed how much more violent those tv spots that Loyal put up are than past marketing. Clearly they've realized that's gonna be the best way to reach the masses.

The great thing is (well, maybe not for WOM) is that there isn't much action in Watchmen. It's mostly dialogue and scenery.

The fact that they managed to cram so much action and so many explosions into these new tv adverts is absolutely brill. Sneaky and lying but brill.

Exactly what I was thinking.

In any case, I don't see anything below $50 million. Market is simply way too empty.

pre-sales dont look that great. I read somewhere that jonas sold more tickets than watchmen. The definitely is not good for a SH movie.

I think it will open below tracking at this point.

Almost all Jonas was pre-sales, and watchmen was still a weak out. I think presales will fly up this weekend, and regardless, it is a hard R, based of a 20 year old comic book, meaning largely older target audiences. Meaning less presales.

I want this to do well but are you failing to see that the general audiences could simply see this as another Madea, Fired Up, Jonas or Street Fighter.
Madea- strictly urban appeal only
Fired Up- relatively no appeal
Jonas- only tween fangirls
Street Fighter- only fans from VG
Watchmen- only fans of the comic

If anything Race to Witch Mountain would appeal to the masses, though there are a lot of idiot people out there who would refuse to see it due to being PG-13 or whatever. Lots of idiots.

Also wasn't it relatively dead before Superman Returns came out? But what happened? It died as well and Pirates overperformed instead.

the major difference is none of those films had the backing, marketing, or general attention that Watchmen does. Those movies just weren't tentpoles, and IMHO were far more solidified in their niches, Madea was the third in the Madea series, and a Perry movie, so that has its' niche, and still made 10m more than any prior one. Jonas just can't appeal to anyone other than brainwashed tween girls, it never will. SF didn't really have much appeal, even to VG fans, it had almost no marketing and was dumped on 1,000 screens.
I know I kinda bypassed your point, but I just don't agree, I have heard interest and buzz from almost every male I know, not just GN fans, so I can't see it being ignored by the "masses"

Hope you're right, I bought the GN yesterday too.
First 200m grosser please. Realistically it'd only get max of 180m but we'll see.

I like that we essentially have four watchmen prediction threads currently (BKB's anit thread, march 6-8, general prediction, and this.)

MORE FOR SHORE!!

Still less, but now predicting $60 million.

I stick with more, but it won't be by more than $5-6 million, IMO. I'm not sure it'll top 300's opening.

Clearly the majority was wrong.

Even though I predicted $60m, I'm not fully convinced yet that $65m is totally out of the question. It just needs an IM of 2.59 to get there... (I know that 300 had an IM of 2.52)