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 Steve Mason estimates 
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Orphan

Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
The International like the only disappointing number. That said, the producers have said and its title is an indirect indicator that profitability will come from the world market. It's too dry of a subject to do incredibly well here. An evil bank hardly screams "blockbuster." It was an entertaining film though so hopefully, it has decent legs. Next weekend should have decent holds with nothing big coming out. In fact, the next two weeks are devoid of wide appeal films so holds could be good for a while.


Sat Feb 14, 2009 5:16 am
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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
^ Hopefully, we have a great chance of breaking the February record but the last two weeks are relatively weak.
With Fired Up getting such a low TC and Street Fighter bound to bomb, it doesn't look good.
I hate Jonas Bros. too so I hope it doesn't do well and that Coraline will continue making $ to top 100m therefore allowing Jonas to flop without consequence. Impossible, but we can always dream.

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Sat Feb 14, 2009 5:24 am
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Orphan

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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
I still think Fired Up could be a mild surprise with 15M or more opening weekend. Screen Gems is doing a fairly great job marketing it.

I'm hoping Street Fighter is A.Not a terrible movie and B. A decent box office performer.


Sat Feb 14, 2009 5:26 am
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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
So let me get this straight... tomorrow might be the biggest grossing day... ever? whoaz

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Sat Feb 14, 2009 5:31 am
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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
Outstanding for Friday The 13th! It deserves every penny.

So glad it broke out.

Huge! :-)


Sat Feb 14, 2009 6:26 am
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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
Blart just became officially the first $100 million movie of the year. Taken looks to be the next one.

Friday the 13th, whether hugely frontloaded or not is a success. Great week.


Sat Feb 14, 2009 7:46 am
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The Greatest Avenger EVER
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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
Jiffy208 wrote:
Chia Pet wrote:
Jiffy208 wrote:
Jeez, this'll be so frontloaded.


Sure sign of someone who doesn't like the type of movie so they try in vain and make fantastic numbers look bad :P

Valentine's Day is a huge moviegoing day.


Yeah, not so much. The numbers are absolutely massive, bordering on unbelievable, but I can only help but wonder how much it'll drop today.


If anything, it'll increase today and drop tomorrow after Valentines Day..This will be the movie teens take their sweethearts to and maybe MBV-3D will have some spillover from this..


Sat Feb 14, 2009 10:05 am
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
Great numbers for Friday the 13th. I just wanted to clarify, I absolutely don't see us getting anywhere near a $100 m Saturday. The top 10 made $49.95 m on Friday, and even if all holdovers go up 90%, F13 would drop at least 15% (insulated by Valentine's Day), the top 10 would be at $73.905 m for Saturday. We're nowhere near a $100 m Saturday imo. Just as an early estimate, the 3day would be at $140 - $175 m, depending on the Sat jumps, not $200 m imo.


Sat Feb 14, 2009 10:06 am
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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
O wrote:
Great numbers for Friday the 13th. I just wanted to clarify, I absolutely don't see us getting anywhere near a $100 m Saturday. The top 10 made $49.95 m on Friday, and even if all holdovers go up 90%, F13 would drop at least 15% (insulated by Valentine's Day), the top 10 would be at $73.905 m for Saturday. We're nowhere near a $100 m Saturday imo. Just as an early estimate, the 3day would be at $140 - $175 m, depending on the Sat jumps, not $200 m imo.


In 2004, the average increase in the top 10 on Saturday, including opener
50 First Dates, was about 132%. If Friday the 13th falls 15%, but the rest of
the top 10 follow that average, the top 10 would make somewhere around 80M.
I would say a 100M top 10 for Saturday is unlikely, but I guess it's possible if
there are larger number of 150%+ increases and Friday the 13th doesn't drop.


Sat Feb 14, 2009 10:25 am
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
Drops:

HJNIY -51.61%
Taken -22.62% :whaa:
Coraline -30.91%
PP2 -34.72%
Paul Blart -33%
Push -50.45%
SM -30.04%
GT -30.24%
The Uninvited -47.24%

Amazing hold for Taken. With an inflated Saturday, and an inflated Sunday, it's looking for yet another amazing drop (it could increase from last weekend as well), for three weekends in a row of $20 m +.

Steep for HJNIY, but it will recover greatly over the weekend.

Great for the family films. Pretty good for Pink Panther 2 actually. Both it, Paul Blart and Coraline could be looking at drops of under 20% this weekend as a possibility.

Great #'s for Slumdog Millionaire and Gran Torino. With an inflated Sat/Sunday, this weekend will help Gran Torino keep its chances for $150 m going.


Sat Feb 14, 2009 10:42 am
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
omg I can't believe there a 20 million $$$ worth of dumb shits to see this on the first day alone.


Sat Feb 14, 2009 11:36 am
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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
Don't we usually keep box office numbers out of thread titles?


Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:29 pm
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Orphan

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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
Jon wrote:
Don't we usually keep box office numbers out of thread titles?


Any excuse... :roll:


Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:48 pm
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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
Chia Pet wrote:
Jon wrote:
Don't we usually keep box office numbers out of thread titles?


Any excuse... :roll:


...it's a widely shared policy around here, from Box Office Bash to the Oscar forum.


Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:54 pm
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Orphan

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Post Re: Steve Mason estimates - F13 w/20M OD!!
Jon wrote:
Chia Pet wrote:
Jon wrote:
Don't we usually keep box office numbers out of thread titles?


Any excuse... :roll:


...it's a widely shared policy around here, from Box Office Bash to the Oscar forum.


You wouldn't have said anything though...


Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:55 pm
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