The Saturday drop will not be that big. Remember, Saturday is Valentines Day, so the Saturday number could be flat. The Sunday drop will be more than half, and Monday may fall under 3 million after that.

appalling breakdown

a realistic breakdown...

15m massively inflated do to perfect release strategy
18m Valentines day will be a bigger benefit than releasing the film on the thirteenth.
8m the films falls back down to earth
3.5m standard horror drop.

44.5m that is absolute best case scenario.

My Derby Predictions (4-day)

1. Friday the 13th - $35.1m
2. He's Just Not That Into You - $28.6m (+3%)
3. Taken - $18.6m (-9%)
4. Confessions of a Shopaholic - $18.1m
5. Coraline - $17.1m (+2%)
6. The International - $11.0m
7. The Pink Panther - $9.5m (-18%)
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop - $9.1m (-16%)
9. Slumdog Millionaire - $7.6m (+3%)
10. Push - $7.1m (-30%)

Top Ten Total - 161.7m (+21%)

For the pattern I have for Friday the 13th, I have it doing 13 million for Friday, remaining flat for Saturday, and then will drop by more than half on Sunday and nearly half on Monday.
Confessions of a Shopoholic will do solid business than massive business because the buzz charts aren't as strong as they should be, reviews are very bad, and HJNTIY will be tough to compete with, so the Friday number will be a bit quiet (3 or 4 million range), but with a huge multiplier, especially with a holiday Saturday, it will have a opening in the high teens.
International will be mediocre at best. The concept isn't to sound, and with the Taken to compete with, it will be a tough sell. Without the holiday and the extended weekend, it would have stalled at 7 million.
As for holdovers.
HJNTIY - The Friday to Friday drop will be at almost 50%, but the Saturday increase will be huge (I predict it will be in the 160% range, meaning that it may be the number one film on Saturday). It will drop more than half on Sunday, but with an extra day, it may see a slight increase.
Taken will see another scant drop since International is rated R. The Friday to Friday drop will be big, but the multiplier will be huge.
Coraline will see a slight increase, cause not only will it get a big increase on Saturday (holiday or not), the Sunday and Monday drops will softer than most of the other films since family films always do so on this weekend. Coraline may see an increase as well.
Pink Panther may not see an increase with it's bad WOM, so the Friday to Friday drop will be very harsh, but the big multiplier will soften it's blow but a whole bunch. Same for Push, which will avoid the obvious huge drop with a moderate drop.
In general, I basically used 2004 as a footnote for the patterns of the films. Despite having 3 movies opening this time, two of them are R-rated, and the big one is a big R, so some sneak in business will help the Friday numbers for most of the holdovers. Whatever Friday numbers are, Saturday's will have big increases (in the 100 - 170 range), and the Sunday drop will be from 40 - 55%, depending on the Saturday increase. The Monday drop will average about 40%. The exception are the family films, which will see the big increase on Saturday, but the Sunday and Monday drop will be in the 20% range.

sooo...

No break-out 45-50M for Friday then? A 35M 4-day would be personally disappointing considering the TCM 03 remake made 28M more than 5 years ago and the deflated Saw films still manage to do over 30M in 3-days.

Nope, screen allocations are not that big, and after a huge Friday and Saturday, it will have the harshest drops for Sunday and Monday you will ever see on a Holdiay weekend (more than half for both days).

But couldn't it do something like the following so that huge drops still would lead to a huge weekend:

Friday - 20M
Saturday - 16M
Sunday - 5M
Monday - 3.5M

Total - 44.5M

Select Final Predictions (4-days):

F13 - 44M

HJNTIY - 25M

CoaS - 23M

The International - 15M

Taken - 15M

Coraline - 14M

Paul Blart: Mall Cop - 9M

The Uninvited - 4M

Our Predictions

We obviously used 2004 for the holdovers, and considering the 2 R-rated openers and the solid dailies, we decided to go quite high on all of them.
We agree with Scotty about Friday the 13th, polls, theatre count and screen allocation don't seem to indicate a break out. To be honest, I was tempted to go even lower at around 30M, we picked 34.0 because Corpse didn't have that same idea Confessions should be helped a lot by the big Saturday, and an opening day close to 5M looks doable. Nothing to add about International.

I love the massive underestimations on Shopaholic, 15m? even if everything weren't exploding lately it would still fly past that with V-day and everything. Mark these words: If you don't join my club before it closes at four you will regret it.

1. Friday the 13th - 37.0m
2. He's Just Not That Into You - 22.9m
3. Confessions of a Shopaholic - 19.0m
4. Coraline - 17.8m
5. Taken - 16.0m
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop - 12.4m
7. The International - 11.2m
8. The Pink Panther - 9.7m
9. Slumdog Millionaire - 8.3m
10. Push - 6.6m

Hmmm. I don't know HOW you got Coraline to project to that much. With a generous Thursday and INSANE 400% Friday max increase, it would get $2.5 million Friday, $5.5 million (+120%) Sat, $3.3 (-40%) Sun, and $2.6 (-20%) Monday, equaling a $14 million 4-Day.

I only think it will go up 250% on Friday myself, considering Thursday will be a bit inflated.

Look at Catch that Kid in 2004. Despite a huge increase on Saturday, it barely dropped on Sunday and Monday.

The Friday the 13th thing is a HUGE gimmick, it's the Omen all over again. How can you see that movie this weekend without going on Friday the 13th.

Omen dropped 63% (on a weekday albeit), 50% for F13 sounds right to me

sure 50% would sound really fair if Valentine's day were not on Saturday, and believe you me, people are going to go to this for date night, and teen single girls will pile into this in droves on saturday (as well as Confessions). It will drop 15% at the very most, 10% more likely.

I think some of you guys may be lowballing Shopaholic, I'm getting a Devil Wears Prada vibe from it and a $25M+ 4-day.