The International was filmed 2 years ago.

Sony is basically dumping it and hoping for the best. I think anything below 15m would be floppage territory.

Not really. I assume this will do well overseas, especially in UK and Germany.

Revolutionary Road is being dropped from quite a few locations around here, and the ones that are keeping it are reducing it to only one or two showtimes a day.

Movie Fandango User Rating % Fandango Sales

Friday the 13th “Go” 30%
Confessions of a Shopaholic “So-So” 16%
Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience “Go” 13%
He’s Just Not That Into You “So-So” 10%
Coraline 3D “Go” 4%

http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?0211103013.secretstalker

Fandango Ticket Sales:

Fandango Five – Ticket Sales (as of 2/11/09 7:00 a.m. PT)

The Jonas Brothers pre-sales don't even compare to Hannah Montana's which was in the Top 10 All Time before it's opening weekend, and had sellouts 2 months before it even opened.

So what kind of opening do you expect? Has the number of 3D screens increased enough that it will be comparable(over 30M)?

Ok so 2004 was the last time Valentine's Day fell on a Saturday. The smallest drop on that day in the Top 10 was +95%! So will this same effect go on this year? I mean with the craziness we've seen so far this year, I would not be suprised to see alot of 100%+ increases. This can work really well in Shopaholic and HJNTIY's favors.

I mean I expect Shopaholic to open to about a $7-7.5 million opening day. Let's say it plays out like 50 First Dates. Then its four-day weekend will be a massive $31.4M-$33.7M four-day frame! While it may not reach those heights, $30M 4-day can be very attainable.

Also with the trends, HJNTIY could take in close to $23-25 million for the four-day weekend.

Heck who knows, Friday the 13th may be able to pull in a tiny increase.

This will be a very interesting weekend.

Biggest President's Day weekend ever, perhaps?

ALL-TIME 4-DAY PRESIDENT’S DAY OPENINGS
1. Ghost Rider - $52M opening
2. 50 First Dates - $45.1M opening
3. Daredevil - $45M opening
4. Friday the Thirteenth - $34.1M (predicted)
5. Constantine - $33.6M opening
6. Jumper - $32.1M opening
7. Bridge to Terabithia - $28.5M opening
8. Eight Below - $25M opening
9. The Spiderwick Chronicles - $24.7M opening
10. John Q - $23.6M opening


This will be Jason’s twelfth movie outing, and he currently ranks as the all-time #3 grossing movie killer behind only Hannibal Lecter and Jigsaw from the Saw series.

All-Time Top 5 Franchise Killers – Cumulative Domestic Box Office

1. Hannibal Lecter – 5 movies - $425.3M
2. Jigsaw (Saw) - 5 movies - $342.5M
3. Jason (Friday the Thirteenth) – 11 movies - $315.6M
4. Freddy Krueger (Nightmare On Elm Street) – 8 movies - $307.4M
5. Michael Myers (Halloween) – 9 movies - $275.1M

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE 4-DAY WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY 13-16

1. NEW – Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $34.1M
2. NEW – Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $25M
3. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $21.25M
4. Taken (Fox) - $16.1M
5. Coraline (Focus) - $14.1M
6. NEW – The International (Sony) - $12.6M
7. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $9.9M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $9.25M
9. Push (Summit) - $7.3M
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $6.2M
11. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $5.8M
12. The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.9M

Steve Mason



He's lowballing F13, at least I hope he is. I forgot that Ghost Rider opened this weekend so it doesn't have that good of a chance of breaking the record.

The convergence of Valentine's Day and Presidents Day is expected to equal big business at the domestic box office.

Not to mention that "Friday the 13th" actually opens on Friday the 13th.

Warner Bros./New Line's horror reboot is expected to win the weekend. If tracking is any indication, "Friday the 13th" should prove another sizable score for New Line, which brought the film with it when it was absorbed into Warner Bros. last year.

Film was produced by Michael Bay's Platinum Dunes and goes out in 3,105 runs. The two other new openers are Disney's chick pic "Confessions of a Shopaholic" (2,507 theaters) and Sony's thriller "The International" (2,365).

"Confessions," starring Isla Fisher, could find itself in a catfight with Warners/New Line holdover "He's Just Not That Into You," which is expected to remain a top player after bowing to a robust $27.8 million last weekend. Latter film has the advantage of a star-studded, ensemble cast.

To open two female-driven pics one week apart is a risky maneuver. Also, some box office observers suggest that "Confession's" subject line -- shopping -- won't resonate well in tough economic times. At the same time, Disney should see a solid gross by the time the long weekend is over.

According to tracking, "The International" is likely to struggle. Film should appeal to adult moviegoers, but it could lose older women to "Confessions of a Shopaholic" and "He's Just Not That Into You."

"The International" will also have to compete with 20th Century Fox's sleeper hit "Taken," which has cumed north of $57 million in under two weeks.

Both younger moviegoers and older fans of the classic franchise are driving sales for "Friday the 13th." As of Thursday, online ticket service Fandango reported that more than 50% of all tickets sales were for the horror remake.

Directed by Marcus Nispel, "Friday the 13th" will combine elements of the first four films.

Domestic big office should see a huge spike in traffic on Saturday as couples head to the multiplex. The last time that Valentine's Day fell on a Saturday was in 2004, when Adam Sandler-Drew Barrymore romancer "50 First Dates" saw a 96% increase in business on Saturday. (Horror and romantic comedies are the two favorite genres for people going out on dates.)

Elsewhere, Oscar contenders enter the final stretch before the Academy Awards on Feb. 22. Fox Searchlight's "Slumdog Millionaire" remains the box office favorite, with a cume north of $78 million.

Specialty openers include "Polanski Unauthorized," which opens in one run in Los Angeles.

On the foreign front, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" -- another Oscar best pic contender -- should lead with launches in Italy, South Korea and Taiwan.

The pricey epic, which moved into most major markets last weekend, has added $12 million in the three days since the weekend to push its foreign cume past $86 million for Warner Bros. Paramount's domestic total of $120 million ofr "Button" could be matched on the international side this weekend.

"Friday the 13th," handled by Par overseas, should scare up respectable offshore biz with 31 day-and-date launches, including France, Germany, Japan, Russia, Spain and the U.K. The other two domestic openers have a far more limited overseas profile as "Confessions of a Shopaholic" goes day-and-date in Mexico, Poland and Russia and "The International' launches in Austria, Germany and Switzerland.

Awards season favorite "Slumdog Millionaire," with foreign grosses at about $50 million, moves into Russia and Spain this weekend. "Doubt," which has been in limited release, opens in France.

Disney's "Bolt" will be a player with expansions into Benelux and the U.K., where previews have already scored around $3 million. The toon's foreign cume has topped $111 million.

"Valkyrie" launches its last round of openings, including Brazil and Mexico, with about $60 million banked so far from three weeks in major markets. Fox's "Australia," with $142 million overseas so far, debuts in Russia; "He's Just Not That Into You" opens in Australia, France and Germany; and "The Pink Panther 2" opens in Scandinavia and the U.K.