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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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 Re: February 13-16 predictions The Dark Shape wrote: RS was pretty close on My Bloody Valentine. I can't imagine them being far off Friday. oh I can. They have a wild track record, they were way low on the Unborn, but accurate on the other 3 horrors of January. However they can way under predict movies, they were saying mid teens for Mall Cop's 4 day. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 11:48 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
Posts: 19747
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Re: February 13-16 predictions They seem likely underestimate the double punch that is its opening day and Valentine's Day.
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 11:49 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: February 13-16 predictions No way FRIDAY does low 30 Million for the 4-Day.
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:34 am |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Rorschach wrote: The only tracking that matters is MTC. They are better but they had Underworld at 26 when Rs had it at low 20s. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:41 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Chia Pet wrote: F13 seems like a good bet to do 40M or more. What's the rule on MTC (which we don't have yet) vs. RS? We do this every week!!! If MTC is significantly higher, the movie will break out, maybe not as high as MTC or even higher. Same as if it's lower. So if MTC has F13 at around 40, then it should break out. _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:46 am |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
Posts: 19747
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Ozymunkias wrote: Chia Pet wrote: F13 seems like a good bet to do 40M or more. What's the rule on MTC (which we don't have yet) vs. RS? We do this every week!!! If MTC is significantly higher, the movie will break out, maybe not as high as MTC or even higher. Same as if it's lower. So if MTC has F13 at around 40, then it should break out. Unlike you it seems, I haven't internalized the rule in memory.
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:49 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Because it's SO hard to remember!
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:54 am |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
Posts: 19747
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Ozymunkias wrote: Because it's SO hard to remember! It is when one actually has more important things to be concerned about. 
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:54 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Like owning a house at 21?
Like planning a wedding?
Like working 40+ hours a week so you can feed your family?
Like doing other adult things?
Yes, you do all of those things!
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:57 am |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
Posts: 19747
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Ozymunkias wrote: Like owning a house at 21?
Like planning a wedding?
Like working 40+ hours a week so you can feed your family?
Like doing other adult things?
Yes, you do all of those things! It's your own stupid fault that you bought a house before you should have and now have to work a lot to afford it so quit your whining. I'd like to have your problems rather than mine.
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:00 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: February 13-16 predictions El Murato wrote: Expected for SF considering the trailer was only on Underworld and Push. It looks like it sucks too. I think Watchmen would get a big bump from RS during opening week The lower RS is in Watchmen, the better. _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:02 am |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Re: February 13-16 predictions both of you cram it or I will send you two to the doghouse for a week
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:06 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: February 13-16 predictions RS and MTC both had 300 tracking at around $40 mil (RS at 38, MTC at 42) viewtopic.php?f=12&t=28045&st=0&sk=t&sd=aEven BJ low balled it! _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:11 am |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Yes, tracking can be off.
But this is still a slasher movie. A franchise slasher movie. It's hardly an unknown commodity.
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:16 am |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Re: February 13-16 predictions I think Chip was using that link for Watchmen because of RS low tracking for it
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:18 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: February 13-16 predictions El Murato wrote: I think Chip was using that link for Watchmen because of RS low tracking for it  _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:23 am |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: February 13-16 predictions MTC Tracking (4-Day)FRIDAY THE 13th: 31 CONFESSIONS OF A SHOPAHOLIC: 20 THE INTERNATIONAL: 14 http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?0209141225.notfabio
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 4:07 pm |
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Levy
Golfaholic
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:06 pm
Posts: 16054
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Ozymunkias wrote: Chia Pet wrote: F13 seems like a good bet to do 40M or more. What's the rule on MTC (which we don't have yet) vs. RS? We do this every week!!! If MTC is significantly higher, the movie will break out, maybe not as high as MTC or even higher. Same as if it's lower. So if MTC has F13 at around 40, then it should break out. Two (?) weeks ago MTC was higher than RS. Dunno what movie it was, but it definitely didn't break out
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 5:00 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Levy wrote: Ozymunkias wrote: Chia Pet wrote: F13 seems like a good bet to do 40M or more. What's the rule on MTC (which we don't have yet) vs. RS? We do this every week!!! If MTC is significantly higher, the movie will break out, maybe not as high as MTC or even higher. Same as if it's lower. So if MTC has F13 at around 40, then it should break out. Two (?) weeks ago MTC was higher than RS. Dunno what movie it was, but it definitely didn't break out The rule is if it's significantly higher, not just higher. i.e. He's Just Not That Into You was 20 at MTC, low teens at RS.
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 5:07 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm
Posts: 5322
Location: The Interstice
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Hmmm, maybe no surprises this week then?
Friday'll probably go higher than MTC. I don't think they have a gimmick factor built in. They were 10 under on Omen's 6-day, underestimating the 6/6/6 day gross no doubt, which was a whopping 12.6 (actually 12,633,666 - hmm, just a coincidence I'm sure).
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 5:31 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
Location: Places
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Friday the 13th will do nearly 30 million on Fri/Sat alone.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 5:50 pm |
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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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Re: February 13-16 predictions the first midnight screening of 2009 will apparently be Friday the 13th.
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 6:05 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm
Posts: 5322
Location: The Interstice
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Re: February 13-16 predictions Does anybody have decent stats on what % of the time RS has actually been more accurate than MTC? Assuming something like "low-30's" or whatever is assigned an actual meaningful value like 31 or 32? I've never even bothered to follow RS. I wouldn't mind the "approaching mid, maybe high low teens" business if it were accurate.
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 6:15 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am
Posts: 7041
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Re: February 13-16 predictions The International 14m 4 Day? Isn't that too low.
Well, last time there was a 4 Day holiday weekend, MLK, they underestimated everything.
_________________
Calls
Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2
Lorax over Despicable Me
Men in Black 3 Under 100m
Madagascar 3 Under 100m
Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 8:10 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: February 13-16 predictions I'm in line at Friday the 13th. Really packed. Lots of kids.
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| Mon Feb 09, 2009 8:47 pm |
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